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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Nice for October. Increasing clouds after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – Becoming cloudy. Some showers likely on radar. Most of the showers will remain over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the morning and early afternoon. But, at least some scattered showers possible elsewhere as the day wears on.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70s
Winds: Southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways possible.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 58 to 64 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways as showers approach from the west.
Saturday – Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder. A few heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous/widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe scattered lightning.
Saturday night – Cloudy with a chance for showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 52 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph. Winds may switch around out of the northwest/north as the night wears on and the front shifts southward.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Sunday – Cloudy. Showers possible. Mainly over far southern Illinois, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and Tennessee
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (but may need to be adjusted if the front stalls)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would at least consider a backup plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Sunday night – Cloudy. If the front stalls out then I may need to add showers into the forecast.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: Northeast/north winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered possible, but low confidence
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A shower can’t be ruled out.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, if any at all.
Monday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Some increase in clouds during the night. Perhaps a shower.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 44 to 48 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Tuesday – Cloudy. A chance for rain and perhaps thunderstorms. A new storm system may approach from the southwest.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible on Tuesday.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and maybe lightning. Gusty winds possible.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 50 to 55 degrees
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Strong winds possible if this system comes together as some models are showing.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – Cloudy. A chance for rain and perhaps thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and maybe lightning. Strong winds possible.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for a shower remaining. Wednesday night’s forecast will be highly dependent on how fast the southern storm and northwestern storm pull out of our region. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: North winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps gusty winds.
Thursday – Partly cloudy and cooler.
Temperatures: Highs in the 50’s
Winds: North winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Clear and colder.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 35 to 40 degrees
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost
Friday – Mostly sunny and cool
Temperatures: Highs in the 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain chances on the increase
2. Monitoring another system around Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy rain event? Gusty winds? Monitor updates.
3. Cold snap next Thursday – Sunday
4. Model mayhem as we move into the next 10-15 days
5. Latest drought numbers
6. If you are interested in signing up for my new texting service then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com. Slow roll-out underway.
Here comes our rain maker. We have been talking about this for more than a week. And, it is finally arriving.
Here is a satellite view showing the system to our west/southwest. Those bright colors are clouds.
Radar
Synopsis:
A storm system is pulling out of the southwest United States. This will combine forces with tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico and an advancing cold front moving in from the northwest. All of this will equal clouds and rain showers developing from southwest to northeast over our region. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm on Saturday, as well.
Rainfall totals between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning should range from 0.40″-0.80″ with pockets of greater than 1″ possible.
Scattered showers could move into southeast Missouri as early as late morning on Friday and early afternoon. More likely would be Friday afternoon and evening over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps even reaching into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee by late afternoon. Whether they can make it further east before that time is questionable.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Scattered showers are possible on Friday evening, as well. Friday night will deliver much of the same. A few scattered showers.
Rain will become more widespread on Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Some of the models indicate a lull at some point late late Friday night and early Saturday morning. This would occur before the better moisture stream arrives from the southwest.
By late morning on Saturday and Saturday afternoon, widespread showers and some thunderstorms will blanket the region. Showers will last into Saturday night. Ending from the northwest to the southeast on Sunday morning.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a plan B.
The front should slide a bit further south on Sunday morning. Rain may continue on Sunday. Mainly over our southern counties. That would include western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee/Missouri Bootheel. Right now, confidence is lower than normal on the Sunday part of the outlook.
Let me show you a couple of images. I want you to pay close attention to the shaded zone. That shaded zone is where moisture content will be higher and lift on Sunday. It isn’t moving much, according to the NAM model guidance. Iffy on how this pans out. But, if the front does stall then rain will continue for parts of our region on Sunday. Images are from wright-weather.com
This map below is for Sunday evening around 10 pm.
This map below is for Sunday afternoon. Note how the shaded zone covers parts of our region.
Let’s check out future-cast radar.
This is the NAM model guidance. Colors represent rain.
This first image is for 11 am to 1 pm on Saturday. Rain over our region.
Image is from weatherbell.com Click image for a larger view.
Moving forward to Saturday afternoon (late). More rain.
Moving forward to Saturday evening. Perhaps a bit more broken and scattered vs earlier in the day. This won’t be exactly right. Keep that in mind. It it is simply guidance.
Then around 9 pm to 11 pm on Saturday night
Moving into Sunday. NAM says wet. We shall see. This is for 7 am on Sunday morning.
Moving ahead to Sunday afternoon. Still wet. If the NAM is correct then Sunday will be quite wet.
How much rain does the NAM guidance drop over our region? Quite a bit for our southern counties. THIS happens IF the front stalls. Otherwise, totals will be less.
Image is from weatherbell.com Click image for a larger view.
Here is the GFS model guidance forecast for rainfall totals. See a theme? Heaviest band across parts of SE MO into western KY
One other model, that I can’t show you, places the heaviest band about 2-3 counties further north than the NAM and GFS.
Monday should be mostly dry. Again, assuming our front does not hang up over our region.
This hurricane (Patricia) is going to hit Mexico over the next few days. A major disaster for Mexico. The remnants will move into the northwest parts of the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This system could impact our region by Tuesday and Wednesday. The bright white is the center of the hurricane. You can see the eye of Patricia. This is a category 4/5 storm. One has to be concerned for those in its path. Major destruction will occur along the Mexican coastline.
Another view. This is one of the stronger hurricanes in the history of the eastern Pacific. Top three or four and could be the number one before it is over. Image from wunderground.com
Track forecast. Note how it crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is a MAJOR rain producer for Texas and parts of Oklahoma. We will have to monitor heavy rain further north and east, as well.
A new storm system will approach from the southwest and west on Monday night and Tuesday. Models are showing an interesting setup for Tuesday/Wednesday. Some of the data brings a tropical low northwest from the Gulf of Mexico. If this were to happen then there would be no shortage of precipitation. Let’s keep an eye on this.
If this second system does move into the region then locally heavy rain would be a possibility. Perhaps a 5-7 day rainfall total of 1″-2″ over much of the area. Low confidence at this point. We need to see if this tropical low develops and moves northward into our part of the country.
Some of the models are also showing strong winds with this system. A lot will depend on the strength of the area of low pressure. Please monitor updates.
Here is what the GFS looks like for TUE/WED. EC model guidance is about the same. Although they are going back and forth on the eventual track. This is an interesting system. The circles are isobars (equal lines of pressure). The blue and pink are rain/heavy rain. Green would be heavier rain. Image is from wright-weather.com
A blast of colder air is likely to occur by next Thursday and Friday. Perhaps another chance for a frost or freeze.
Models are having a difficult time resolving what happens after that. The spread of options is great (to say the least). Perhaps a more active pattern unfolding?
I will leave Halloween dry and cool for the time being. Some models show a very cold rain system on Halloween. Again, let’s keep an eye on trends. I don’t trust the models with this pattern. They don’t do well with the set-up that is forming.
The new drought numbers are in. More of our counties are being painted in drought conditions. Hopefully this weekends rain will help a little bit.
The tan colors represent moderate drought. No orange colors, yet.
I can’t remember if I posted this. There is an article about my interest in weather in the Farmers’ Almanac. This is the 2016 version (NOT the yellow Farmers’ Almanac). Check it out if you find one in your local store.
COMING SOON! Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0 A texting service. Watch for announcements over the coming week.
Click images for a larger view.
If you are interested in signing up then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
I am going to start a slow roll-out.
No major changes. I continue to tweak the Sunday/Monday forecast. Whether this front stalls or not is still questionable. I am leaving some rain showers in the forecast, but with low probabilities and lower than normal confidence.
Monitor Tuesday and Wednesday for another storm system to move into our region. Medium confidence on that event.
Some rain showers for your outdoor activities can’t be ruled out Friday afternoon and evening. A better chance for rain arrives on Friday night and especially on Saturday. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a plan B. And, I can’t rule out some showers Friday evening/night, as well.
Lightning could occur on Saturday. A few thunderstorms possible. Non-severe. But, of course lightning is always a concern for an outdoor event. Scattered lightning strikes possible.
Closely monitoring a system next Tuesday into Wednesday. Heavy rain and strong winds possible. Monitor updates.
Umbrella’s might be necessary as early as Friday afternoon and evening. More like they will be needed Friday night into Saturday night.
The wild card continues to be this front hanging up somewhere near our region. If the front were to stall it would be over our southern counties. Thus, some continued chances for rain showers may be necessary into at least Sunday. Most likely for Kentucky/Tennessee vs our northern counties. Northern counties should dry out.
Second wild card will be a potential tropical low moving north/northeast next Tuesday and Wednesday. If that were to happen then we might experience heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms. Strong winds are also possible. Monitor updates.
No additional frost in the short range forecast. I am watching next Thursday into the weekend for another shot at frost and freeze conditions.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Well, our rain maker is finally going to move into the region. Rain showers are possible as early as Friday afternoon and evening. But, the better chances for widespread precipitation arrives later on Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall totals of 0.40″-0.80″ appear a good bet for the region. With the potential for locally heavier totals. Especially true if some banding occurs. Areas of heavier rain that forms in bands.
Here is the latest official rainfall outlook through Sunday morning. Additional rain is possible next week. Possibly quite a bit of rain if everything sets up correctly. Still some time to monitor that subject.
Officially the WPC/NOAA has gone with 1.00-1.50″ for much of our area. We will see if that happens. I went a little bit lower.
Let me zoom out a bit. Check out Texas. Wow. That is a lot of rain. Too much rain. Some spots may pick up more than 10″ of precipitation. Ouch.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Friday and ONE for late Friday night and especially Saturday.
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible late Friday night, but more likely on Saturday.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Monitor updates. A stronger storm system may move in from the south.
Wednesday: Monitor updates. A stronger storm system may move in from the south.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
UPDATE: October 20, 2015: Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November. A couple of storm systems to monitor. I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States. The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter. Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast. If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast. Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.
The question will be how far south do these systems track. Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.
I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter. The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event. Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic. I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures. Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast. It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.
Drought continues to be the lead story. Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region). The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November. The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.
Precious discussions below.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST
NOAA has released their winter forecast. I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region. But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet. The long range cycle is still in the developing stages. The long range cycle typically develops during October and November. It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter. Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.
I am concerned about our dry weather. October has been dry, thus far. Not the best way to start out the next cycle. However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go. Will the weather become more active during that time period? Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.
Here is what NOAA said today.
This first map is their temperature outlook. They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States. In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures. The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.
I would have brought the blue further north into our region. It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter. That is when December into early March is averaged out. That does not mean every month will be colder than normal. It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal. We will see how it goes.
I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States. The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air. If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA saying about our region? They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast. They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter. Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes. As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA forecasting for our region? They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.
Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt. Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance. Key word being specific.
We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.
For the most part, our region experiences a couple of winter storms each year. Last year the winter was boring, until it wasn’t. The two big winter storms occurred on February 16th and March 5th. And, many will never forget those two events. November into January was fairly calm.
No matter what winter forecast you read, there isn’t a method of forecasting the big events. The events that matter. Not months in advance, at least. We do well to forecast them a few days in advance, let alone months in advance.
Forecasters do fairly well with general over/under forecasts. Warmer than normal/colder than normal. Wetter than normal/drier than normal. But, that really does not tell the story of winter. That does not tell you what you really are wondering. Thus, is the nature of long range forecasting. Maybe one day it will improve.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
