Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

.

Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky.  The gentle dentist.  Mercury free dentistry.  They also do safe Mercury removal.  You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well

.

For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.

Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here.  Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here

.

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.  You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well

.

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.—

 

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Friday night –  Cloudy.  A good chance for showers.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 58 to 64 degrees.
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?   50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered/numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.

 

WEATHER RADIO WINNER WAS MIKE KINNIS,   Congratulations, Mike.

 

Saturday – Cloudy.  Showers likely.  A rumble of thunder.  A few heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous/widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a backup plan.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Maybe scattered lightning.

 

Saturday night –  Cloudy with a chance for showers.  A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 52 to 58 degrees.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5 mph.  Winds may switch around out of the northwest/north as the night wears on and the front shifts southward.
What is the chance for precipitation?   60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous showers possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.

 

Sunday –  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Mainly over far southern Illinois, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and Tennessee
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (but may need to be adjusted if the front stalls)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would at least consider a backup plan.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways

 

Sunday night –  Cloudy.  If the front stalls out then I may need to add showers into the forecast.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48-54 degrees.
Winds:  Northeast/north winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?   20% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered possible, but low confidence
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   A shower can’t be ruled out.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways, if any at all.

 

Monday –  Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds:  East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Monday night –  Some increase in clouds during the night.  Perhaps a shower.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 44 to 48 degrees
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?   20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None.

 

Tuesday –  Cloudy.  A chance for rain and perhaps thunderstorms. 
Temperatures:  Highs in the 60s
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusty winds possible on Tuesday.
What is the chance for precipitation?  40% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps numerous.  This will depend on the speed of two systems moving towards our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and maybe lightning.  Gusty winds possible.

 

Tuesday night –  Cloudy.  A chance for rain and possibly a thunderstorm.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 50 to 55 degrees
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph.  Strong winds possible if this system comes together as some models are showing.
What is the chance for precipitation?   60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Possibly
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds possible.  Monitor updates.

 

Wednesday –  Cloudy.  A chance for rain and perhaps thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 60s
Winds:  South winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Possibly
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and maybe lightning.  Strong winds possible.

 

Wednesday night –  Cloudy.  A chance for a shower remaining.  Wednesday night’s forecast will be highly dependent on how fast the southern storm and northwestern storm pull out of our region.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: North winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  20% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered showers
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps gusty winds.

 

Thursday –  Partly cloudy and cooler.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 50’s
Winds:  North winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Thursday night –  Clear and colder.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from  35 to 40 degrees
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Monitoring for frost

 

Friday –  Mostly sunny and cool.  Some increase in clouds possible during the afternoon.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 50’s
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? None

 

Friday night –  Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from  38 to 44 degrees
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Monitoring for frost

 

Saturday –  Mix of sun and clouds.  Lower than normal confidence on Saturday.  Some models show a new storm system moving into the region.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 60’s
Winds:  Southeast  winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? None

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Reed Electric, Heating & Air in Metropolis, IL offers full electrical, heating, and air conditioning services, as well as automatic transfer generators.  Our licensed and insured service technicians serve Southern Illinois and Western KY with 24 hour service.  Free estimates available for all new installations!

Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com

 

 

 

 

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.   Rain chances on the increase tonight through at least Saturday evening.
2.  Rain may continue into Sunday across parts of the region.  Best chances south vs north.
3.  All eyes turn towards a possible stronger storm system for Tuesday and Wednesday
4.  Monitor updates as we move forward.  Active pattern developing
5.  Cold snap Thursday into Halloween weekend
Radar

Before we get to the weather.  A brief announcement 🙂

I am teaming up with The FireHorn to bring you a texting service.  Details below.  I am going to start a slow roll out.

These will not be automated messages.  These will be typed and sent straight from me to you.  Your personal meteorologist.

COMING SOON!  Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0  A texting service.  Watch for announcements over the coming week.

Click images for a larger view.

If you are interested in signing up then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

I am going to start a slow roll-out.

I am following two big weather stories.  One is our rain chances!  Finally some rain for the drought stricken counties of our region.  Scattered showers will continue to spread across the area on Friday night and Saturday.  Widespread rain is likely on Saturday.

Data indicates a couple of periods where the rain may break up into widely scattered showers.  Then, perhaps a more widespread and general rainfall.  The time periods where the models attempt to break it up a  bit are late tonight and parts of tomorrow morning.  Whether this happens or not, we shall see.  But, keep that in mind.  It isn’t going to rain all the time.

I know many of you have outdoor events on Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a plan B.

Rainfall totals of 0.40″-0.80″ are a good bet area wide.  Pockets of greater than 1″ can’t be ruled out.  Especially true if some banding occurs and an occasional thunderstorm.

We badly need this rain.  Some places have not measured any rainfall since September.  Some locations have had less than one inch of rain since August.  Drought continues to spread over our area.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Saturday because of the rain and clouds.  Expect a lot of 60s for high temperatures.  A few 70s.

 

HURRICANE PATRICIA:

The next BIG weather story is a world news weather story.   Hurricane Patricia, the largest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, is hitting Mexico.  This is a monster storm with sustained winds of 200 mph with gusts over 220 mph.  It is a sad day for those in its path.  Complete destruction will occur where the maximum winds combine with the storm surge.  Let’s just hope that is an area with little or no population.  There are several cities in the path of this storm.  The worst damage will be to the right of the eye.

Dr. Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at The University of Miami and Hurricane Expert for the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, at the University of Miami captures it in a Facebook Post:

History in the making… Hurricane Patricia has just become the strongest hurricane on record in terms of wind speed and central pressure anywhere in the East Pacific OR the Atlantic! Sustained winds are at 200mph (175kts), and the pressure is down to 880mb. And, it will be making landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, Mexico later today. Patricia was just a tropical storm 30 hours ago… (end)

This system will cross Mexico over the next 48 hours.  The mountains will shred the low level center of the hurricane apart.  That will leave the mid and upper level circulation.  It will then reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure.  Whether this low takes on tropical characteristics is simply semantics.  It will produce strong winds along the Texas and Louisiana coastline.  Along with flooding rains.  Rainfall totals of 10-20″ are expected over portions of eastern Texas.  Severe flooding will be the end result.

The system will meander around the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.  Another storm system, approaching our region from the northwest, will pick up the Gulf of Mexico low and pull it northward.   That is the forecast, at least.  Some questions on exactly how this happens and the timing.

Heavy rain is possible in our region by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Again, the timing is going to have to be worked out.  There is a lot of moisture to work with.  Thus, the heavy rain concerns.

If the pressure gradient is tight enough then some gusty winds will also be possible.  This is not exactly the same kind of set-up as Ike was.  As many of you will remember, hurricane Ike produced widespread wind damage in our region.  It struck Texas and then moved into Oklahoma and Arkansas. From there it spread northeast.  It had a very tight pressure gradient associated with it.  At this time, I am not expecting a repeat of Ike.

I think the most likely scenario with this system is that the northern stream will be the dominate storm system.  That means that the southern stream will be the weaker of the two.  The southern stream will be the one with the most moisture.  But, the area of low pressure to our north will likely be the deeper low.  If that happens then the main concern will be heavy rain and not wind.  Let’s monitor, as always.  Lot of moving parts on this event.

The risk for severe weather is not zero on Tuesday and Wednesday.  But, too many questions remain to actually put it in the forecast.  Let’s closely monitor the remains of Patricia.

Rain should exit our region on Wednesday night or Thursday.  That will leave us with colder air and perhaps another chance for a frost by Friday or Saturday morning.  That is way off in the extended.  But, the bottom line is that it will be turning colder.

I still have Halloween as cool with a few clouds.  High around 60 degrees.  BUT, models are not in agreement on Halloween.  The GFS is pumping up another storm system for Saturday and Sunday.  Other models don’t agree.  Long way off.  Will update accordingly over the coming days.

Let’s take a look at some charts.

Don’t forget our local city view radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

First map is the radar animation.  You can watch the showers moving through the area.

Let’s look at Hurricane Patricia

This is the remnants of Patricia in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.  The red L.   See the storm to our northwest, as well?  Over Montana.  These two systems will merge on Tuesday and Wednesday.  At least that is the current forecast thinking.

Then on Tuesday

Then on Wednesday.  You can see them merging.  The northwest storm is moving east/southeast.  The Gulf of Mexico storm is moving northward.

Here is the forecast track for Patricia.  The lines represent the possible tracks.  Different models = different tracks.  They are rather clustered.  That means the models are fairly confident on the eventual track of this system.

 

I continue to tweak the Sunday part of the forecast.  The location of the stalled front will determine rainfall chances for Sunday morning into Sunday evening.  The front will eventually wash out/dissipate over the Tennessee Valley on Sunday night and Monday.

Monitor Tuesday and Wednesday for another storm system to move into our region.  Medium confidence on that event.

 

Some rain showers for your outdoor activities can’t be ruled out Friday afternoon and evening.  A better chance for rain arrives on Friday night and especially on Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a plan B.  And, I can’t rule out some showers Friday evening/night, as well.

Lightning could occur on Saturday.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Non-severe. But, of course lightning is always a concern for an outdoor event.  Scattered lightning strikes possible.

Closely monitoring a system next Tuesday into Wednesday.  Heavy rain and strong winds possible.  Monitor updates.

 

Umbrella’s might be necessary as early as Friday afternoon and evening.  More like they will be needed Friday night into Saturday night.

 

The wild card continues to be this front hanging up somewhere near our region.  If the front were to stall it would be over our southern counties.  Thus, some continued chances for rain showers may be necessary into at least Sunday.  Most likely for Kentucky/Tennessee vs our northern counties.  Northern counties should dry out.

Second wild card will be a potential tropical low moving north/northeast next Tuesday and Wednesday.  If that were to happen then we might experience heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms.  Strong winds would also be possible.  Monitor updates.

 

No additional frost in the short range forecast.  I am watching next Thursday into the weekend for another shot at frost and freeze conditions.

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rain is going to be the big story for Friday night into Sunday.  There remains some debate about the Sunday part of the forecast.  The front should stall out over Tennessee.  Rain is likely to continue over at least the southern half of our region on Sunday.  That would include areas from the Missouri Bootheel into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Areas further north (such as Farmington, MO towards Carmi, IL might remain mostly dry on Sunday).  As always, monitor updated forecasts if you have concerns.

Rainfall totals between now and Sunday should range from 0.40″-0.80″ with pockets of 1″ or greater not out of the question.  If the front does stall then the heavier rain totals would be possible.

A decent rain event is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tropical moisture is forecast to spread northward into our region.  Locally heavy rain is currently forecast for our entire region.  Rainfall totals of 1-2″ appear possible.  Whether we see higher totals will need to be monitored.

Here are the latest rainfall graphics.

 

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be ONE for late Friday night and especially Saturday.  Lightning is the only concern.

.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.   Thunder possible.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Monitor updates
Wednesday:  Monitor updates
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

Let’s take a look at some winter data.  I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.  

UPDATE:  October 20, 2015:  Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November.  A couple of storm systems to monitor.  I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States.  The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter.  Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast.  If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast.  Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.

The question will be how far south do these systems track.  Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama.  That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.

I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter.  The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event.  Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic.  I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures.  Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast.  It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.

Drought continues to be the lead story.  Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region).  The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November.  The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.

Precious discussions below.

One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties.  This is a concern.  I do believe in repeating patterns.  Typically October and November set the stage for the winter.  Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST

NOAA has released their winter forecast.  I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region.  But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet.  The long range cycle is still in the developing stages.  The long range cycle typically develops during October and November.  It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter.  Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.

I am concerned about our dry weather.  October has been dry, thus far.  Not the best way to start out the next cycle.  However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go.  Will the weather become more active during that time period?  Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.

Here is what NOAA said today.

This first map is their temperature outlook.  They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States.  In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures.  The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.

I would have brought the blue further north into our region.  It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter.  That is when December into early March is averaged out.  That does not mean every month will be colder than normal.  It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal.  We will see how it goes.

I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States.  The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air.  If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA saying about our region?  They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.

Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast.  They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter.  Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes.  As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA forecasting for our region?  They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.

Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region.  If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt.  Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance.  Key word being specific.

We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.

 

 

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

 

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

 

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.