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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Wednesday night – A few clouds possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 52 to 56 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 0-5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Nice for October. Becoming cloudy late.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Nice for October.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – Becoming cloudy. Can’t rule out showers. Shower chances would be greater in the afternoon and mostly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Low confidence on this part of the forecast. I do believe there will be some showers but still working on timing.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but can’t rule out some afternoon showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (mainly western half of the region)
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe scattered
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways possible.
Friday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers as the night wears on.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 55 to 62 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways as showers approach from the west.
Saturday – Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. A few heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe scattered lightning.
Saturday night – Cloudy with a chance for showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Sunday – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Sunday night – Cloudy. If the front stalls out then I may need to add showers into the forecast.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered possible, but low confidence
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday – Cloudy. A few showers possible. Low confidence on Monday’s forecast. Not sure if the front stalls out. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday night – Cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 44 to 48 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? None.
Tuesday – Cloudy. A chance for rain and perhaps thunderstorms. A new storm system may approach from the southwest.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and maybe lightning
Monitoring Tuesday-Wednesday for a bigger storm system.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday will deliver another nice day for the region
2. Rain chances begin to sneak into the region on Fridayg
3. Some question as to how far east to take the rain on Friday
4. Widespread rain likely on Saturday into Saturday evening
5. Monitoring the potential for the front to stall
6. Another wave of precipitation possible around Tuesday/Wednesday. Possible storms?
7. Cold blast possible by Thursday into Saturday of next week. Another frost or freeze possible.
8. Active pattern about to start? A series of storm systems over the next 15 days. Some of the data does suggest that.
Well, isn’t this weather just wonderful? Who could ask for better weather in October. Of course you cold weather lovers are not happy. But, many others are loving it. High temperatures topping out in the 70s. Wow. Not typical for this time of the year. My thinking was that October would deliver more normal to below normal temperature days vs above normal temperature days. Let’s see how that forecast is holding up. Still some time to go!
My forecast was also for a drier than normal October. Still some time to go on that, as well. Although, dry is certainly winning (no secret there).
Here is the official data from the Paducah, KY NWS. Everything in blue represents normal to below normal temperatures. We are tied! Ten days have been at or below normal. Ten days have been above normal. Again, we still have quite a few days left in the temperature race. We will see how it shakes out.
Looking ahead:
Fairly tranquil weather for Thursday into Friday morning. Some high clouds every now and then. But, no precipitation.
Our weather pattern changes on Friday into the weekend. A large upper level low pressure system, which has been situated over the desert southwest, will finally make a push east and northeast. This will tap into some Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moisture and bring us our first real chance of rain for the Month of October. Real chance meaning widespread in nature.
I am struggling with how far east to bring the rain on Friday afternoon and evening. The overall trend in the guidance has been to speed everything up by 12-18 hours. Over the last few days more and more models have been coming into line with this thinking.
Some of the data even brings a few showers into southeast Missouri on Friday morning.
Right now, it appears the best chance (40%-50%) for rain on Friday afternoon between 12 pm and 6 pm will be situated over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Whether precipitation can push further east is questionable. Meaning east of Marion, Illinois and into western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.
I still have some time to iron out the details. But, just keep that in mind. We could have some showers on Friday afternoon across at least the western half of the region.
By Friday evening into the overnight hours we will have an increasing chance for showers further and further east. I am thinking light and scattered showers. But, showers none-the-less. Friday night football games may have a few showers around.
Saturday into Saturday evening will bring the greatest chance for widespread showers and perhaps even some thunderstorms. A few heavy downpours are possible. I am placing the percentage chances at 60%-80% on Saturday and Saturday evening. It is going to rain at least off and on during that time period.
Rainfall amounts in the 0.40″-0.80″ range are a good bet between Friday-Sunday. Data indicates greater than 1″ possible, but I don’t want to go too big this far out. Let’s stick with the other numbers, for now. If the front stalls out then rainfall totals would be higher.
Severe weather is not anticipated with this system. Lack of instability will be the main reason for the lack of severe storms. That is good news.
The next big question mark will be the Sunday and Monday forecast. Models have been all over the place with what to do with the cold front. Stall it out or don’t stall it. My approach has been to go with low probabilities for rainfall and lower than normal confidence on the Sunday-Monday forecast time frame. Subject to quite a few changes as we move forward. Let me continue to monitor trends in the data.
Early next week?
Another storm system approaches the region late Monday night and Tuesday. This should spark some showers and perhaps thunderstorms in the region.
Following that storm system, I am tracking a strong cold front for late next week. Another frost or freeze appears possible by the Thursday-Sunday time frame. Halloween might end up cold. Leaning dry for Halloween, as well.
Perhaps a cold Halloween weekend? We shall see.
Long shot forecast (this far out). Subject to change!!!
This is for NEXT Friday (October 30th). Image from wright-weather.com
Temperature forecast. Blue is chilly air.
Quite a bit to monitor over the next ten days. Unlike the last ten days, which have been quite boring.
Let’s take a look at a few maps.
How dry has it been? Very. Look at these numbers.
Weekend Maps:
Moisture increases as we move into the weekend.
Let’s take a look at PWAT values for Wednesday and Thursday. Fairly dry atmosphere. Look to the west? Those green and yellow colors represent more moisture. This is pooling ahead of a storm system that will move into our region over the weekend. PWAT values are a great way to measure moisture in the entire atmosphere.
PWAT values on Saturday will be 1.8 – 2+ standard deviations above normal. That could mean a few heavy downpours. If we can muster some instability then thunderstorms would also be possible.
What are PWAT values – click here
Maps below are from weatherbell.com
This first map is for today. PWAT values are low. Not a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
Moving ahead to the weekend. Check out what happens. The PWAT values increase over our region. Moisture will be flowing in from the southwest. This is showing some 1.4 to 2.0 values over our region. Decent amount of moisture for the end of October.
Moving ahead to Sunday morning (the PWAT map below). The GFS continues to show a lot of moisture in our region. That is questionable. Will the front stall out? Still not sure about that. See how the green and yellow is pooled from west to east? That is because the GFS is stalling the front over our region.
Look at the standard deviation map (for PWAT values). When you see 2 standard deviations above normal that tells you this is a moist atmosphere. How much this storm system taps into that moisture is what we will be watching. If thunderstorms form then some places could pick up more than one inch of rain.
This is how the moisture stream is flowing. From the southwest into the storm system (low pressure) over the Great Lakes.
Let me show you the latest CAPE value forecast. CAPE is basically a reading of the amount of energy in the atmosphere. Not a lot of CAPE, but some. This is the NAM model. The GFS model shows weaker CAPE. Perhaps we will have 200 to 800 readings. Enough to make me consider thunder in the forecast.
Let’s walk through the precipitation maps from the GFS. Green represents rain showers and thunderstorms.
This first map is for Friday evening. Some showers in our region. Especially the western half of the region. Moving east/northeast. You can see the area of low pressure in Minnesota. 1003 millibars. It is moving northeast. Cold front would trail back to the south (where the green is basically).
One thing I noticed is that the models are trying to break up the precipitation early Saturday morning (before it reforms). This is something to consider. Perhaps there will be a period of time when showers are more scattered and broken. Still a bit early to know for sure.
This image is for 7 am on Saturday morning. Note the breaks. I know some of you have outdoor plans this weekend. No promises on the breaks.
Then by Saturday afternoon and evening. Quite a bit of green in our region. The darker green to our southwest is heavier rain. Texas will have a deluge.
Finally, this map is for Sunday morning. Big question mark on Sunday’s forecast. GFS stalls the front.
Precipitation amounts on the NAM vs the GFS
This first map is the NAM model through Saturday evening. It is showing 0.10″ to 0.50″ readings over our region. With more rain after this time period.
Click the map for a larger view. Weatherbell.com map
The GFS shows lesser amounts. But, more rain after this time period. The colors represent rainfall totals through Saturday evening. Scale is on the right. Light green represents 0.10″-0.30″. Look down in Texas. Let’s hope they don’t receive that much rain. Flooding would occur.
We will see how it goes. If the front does stall out then heavier totals will occur, obviously.
The WPC/NOAA put out this map on Wednesday evening. This is the seven day rainfall totals. They went quite heavy. Keep in mind this includes a second and possibly third wave of precipitation early to middle of next week.
One note: Some models are showing an impressive low pressure next Tuesday night/Wednesday for our region. Possible heavy storms. Long way off. Will be closely monitoring.
Of great interest is the potential of a tropical system forming near the Texas coast early next week. Then it moving northwest. Now, not all models capture this idea. But several of them do.
The GFS guidance is suggesting that our weather may be about ready to turn quite active. Stay tuned.
I can’t remember if I posted this. There is an article about my interest in weather in the Farmers’ Almanac. This is the 2016 version (NOT the yellow Farmers’ Almanac). Check it out if you find one in your local store.
COMING SOON! Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0 A texting service. Watch for announcements over the coming week.
I continue to struggle with the Friday afternoon and evening forecast. A bit more straight forward on Saturday. I will continue to tweak the percentage numbers as we move forward.
No major concerns through Friday morning.
No
The wild card in the forecast will be the possibility of the cold front becoming stationary over parts of our region on Sunday. If this occurs then rain chances will linger longer. Right now rain is likely on Saturday and Saturday night. But, questions remain on Sunday/Monday.
No additional frost in the short range forecast. I am watching next Thursday into the weekend for another shot at frost and freeze conditions.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances increase by late Friday afternoon/night. Rain likely on Saturday and Saturday night. Some question as to how long the rain will linger on Sunday. The front may stall over our region. If that occurs then we may have a few rounds of precipitation on Sunday and even Monday. I will be monitoring trends on the placement of the frontal boundary.
Here is the current thinking on rainfall totals through Sunday morning. Low confidence on details. There could be some pockets of heavier rain. For now, this is the broad brushed outlook for rainfall. This map will be updated each day.
This is the latest official NOAA map (rainfall totals through Sunday morning) Click image for a larger view of this weatherbell.com map
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO on Thursday and Thursday night. Thunder possible by Saturday (but not expecting severe weather). Will monitor Friday afternoon and night for some lightning. Believe Saturday would be the better chance for thunder.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
UPDATE: October 20, 2015: Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November. A couple of storm systems to monitor. I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States. The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter. Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast. If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast. Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.
The question will be how far south do these systems track. Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.
I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter. The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event. Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic. I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures. Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast. It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.
Drought continues to be the lead story. Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region). The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November. The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.
Precious discussions below.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST
NOAA has released their winter forecast. I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region. But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet. The long range cycle is still in the developing stages. The long range cycle typically develops during October and November. It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter. Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.
I am concerned about our dry weather. October has been dry, thus far. Not the best way to start out the next cycle. However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go. Will the weather become more active during that time period? Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.
Here is what NOAA said today.
This first map is their temperature outlook. They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States. In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures. The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.
I would have brought the blue further north into our region. It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter. That is when December into early March is averaged out. That does not mean every month will be colder than normal. It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal. We will see how it goes.
I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States. The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air. If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA saying about our region? They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast. They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter. Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes. As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA forecasting for our region? They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.
Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt. Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance. Key word being specific.
We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.
For the most part, our region experiences a couple of winter storms each year. Last year the winter was boring, until it wasn’t. The two big winter storms occurred on February 16th and March 5th. And, many will never forget those two events. November into January was fairly calm.
No matter what winter forecast you read, there isn’t a method of forecasting the big events. The events that matter. Not months in advance, at least. We do well to forecast them a few days in advance, let alone months in advance.
Forecasters do fairly well with general over/under forecasts. Warmer than normal/colder than normal. Wetter than normal/drier than normal. But, that really does not tell the story of winter. That does not tell you what you really are wondering. Thus, is the nature of long range forecasting. Maybe one day it will improve.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
