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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
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Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: Northwest/west winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 72 to 76 degrees
Winds: Northwest to west winds at 4-8 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 74 to 78 degrees. Perhaps a bit warmer over our western counties in southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds at times.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: South winds becoming southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – A few clouds. Otherwise, sunshine. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 66 to 72.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated. Iffy on rain forming along the cold front
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday night – Perhaps some evening clouds. Then becoming mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 45 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated early in the evening. Small chance.
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and chilly. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds: North winds at 6-12 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible? Monitor updates if you have concerns.
Temperatures: Lows from 34 to 38 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? Perhaps some frost to contend with.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Monday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 70’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Beautiful fall weather
2. Another cold front Friday
3. Mostly dry along this next front (current forecast)
4. Frost on Saturday night/Sunday morning?
5. Active weather next week into the following week? Widespread showers and thunderstorms may return.
Beautiful fall weather has arrived in our region. And, it is going to last into the weekend. Expect fall like temperatures. Cool or chilly mornings and nice afternoons. Plenty of sunshine to go around for everyone. I think you will enjoy the weather.
Some of you picked up a decent rain on Monday. Precipitation coverage was more widespread than anticipated. The thinking was that the bulk of the rain would fall over Kentucky and Tennessee. Some fell over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, as well. The coverage blew up nicely over Kentucky and Tennessee. Some places picked up 0.30″-0.60″ of rain. Several thunderstorms even produced pea to dime size hail.
And, once again some areas picked up no measurable rainfall. Par for the dry course.
High pressure will dominate the weather over the coming days. That means nice weather.
Some areas remain quite dry. We have yet to have a killing frost. That means a lot of vegetation is still green. However, there have been reports of fires over the past few weeks. Use care.
Rainfall so far this month. Check out the southeastern United States. Horrible floods a week or so ago. They will be cleaning up for awhile. Image is from weatherbell.com
A cold front will push into our region on Thursday night and Friday. This front should be accompanied by some clouds. Some models are painting a few showers, as well. I will keep an eye on trends. Not expecting anything major to come out of this next front. I did place a 10% chance for a shower along the front for Friday.
Colder air will follow the front. By Saturday night and Sunday morning we may see low temperatures dip into the 30’s. For about a month now I have been calling for frost around the 18th of October. Will that ball land in the basket? Time will tell. Either way, chilly air for the weekend. High temperatures may not get out of the 60’s on Saturday and Sunday.
It will feel like fall.
Let’s take a look at a few maps from wright-weather.com
This cold “blast” will be centered to our east and northeast. The coldest air will likely miss our region. However, we will be brushed by the chilly air. Perhaps enough for some 30’s across most of our counties Friday night and more likely Saturday night.
This first map is the surface map from the GFS model guidance. You can see the big Canadian high pressure scooting south and east. The big H is the high pressure. Fairly high barometric pressure (30.33″)
Remember, high pressure is sinking air. High pressure that approaches our region from Canada will typically deliver cold air. Our coldest winter days are usually because of snow cover and an area of high pressure that dives in behind a powerful winter storm. Of course this one won’t have a winter storm. But, it will be a strong area of high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley and northeast.
This next map is the 850 mb map. Several thousand feet aloft. Colors represent temperatures. Notice how the deeper blues are well to our northeast? That is the core of this cold blast. Missing us. Brushing us.
And, finally. This next map is the 500 mb height and wind map. About 18,000′ aloft. You can see the trough over the eastern United States. A trough is a dip in the jet stream. A dip in the jet stream typically means colder weather.
Notice the source region for the air? Canada.
Here is a map from weatherbell.com Temperature forecast map for Sunday morning. Note that the coldest air misses our region.
Click the map for a larger view. Sunday morning low temperatures.
Pulling out a bit. The pink colors to our northeast are the coldest temperatures.
Is this pattern about to break down and chance? The model guidance is painting a much more active weather pattern next week into the following week. Some of the models are showing widespread showers and even heavy thunderstorms in our region. Way too far out to say with certainty. But, this is the first time the data has indicated a pattern shift (so far this fall). I am cautiously optimistic that we are about to see a change in the weather pattern.
Let me show you some of the long range charts.
The details past day 5 really aren’t all that important. The models don’t do well in the longer range. But, I wanted to show you the changes in the data. And, we will monitor them as we move forward.
What I want you to take away from this discussion is that there are signs that the current dry pattern may soon break down. Perhaps better chances for rain and thunderstorms. We need rain. Fire season is upon us.
This first map is from tropicaltidbits.com and it is the GFS model for next Wednesday. An area of low pressure is forecast by the guidance to push into Missouri and Illinois. It eventually tracks into the Great Lakes. Quite a bit of guidance supports this idea.
Perhaps we will have some showers and thunderstorms next week. Tuesday into Thursday time frame. Long way off.
This next map is for Monday, October 26th. The GFS paints an even larger storm system moving through the central United States. Trailing cold front with showers and storms in our region. Green represents rain. Blue would be snow.
This next map is for October 29th. Long way off. Again, the details aren’t important. I just want to show you that the data is starting to become more favorable for precipitation.
This is the 500 mb chart. The bright colors represent wind speed. Scale is on the bottom of the graphic. This map is showing you a trough into the Central United States. Strong jet stream. Southwest flow moving into our region. That would indicate better moisture for precipitation than recent events. This is for the fourth week of October. The second image is the fourth week of October, as well. Active? Time will tell. Images are from wright-weather.com
Speaking of fall 🙂
Gary Lezak posted this beautiful photograph from the Kansas City area. Nice colors. Don’t you love this time of the year? I think I heard some boo’s from the allergy prone crowd. I am one of those, but I still love fall.
Temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
Wednesday morning low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Thursday morning low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Are you seeing any changes in the leaves? Don’t forget to Tweet me a few. I will try and post them on the blog. https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
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All you have to do is email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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- Contest will end on October 19th at 5 pm. I will announce the winner on Facebook and I will email the winner.
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No major changes in this forecast package. Small adjustments to wind and temperature.
No major concerns through Friday. Some patchy morning fog will be possible Wednesday and Thursday morning.
No action required with this forecast. Maybe a few mornings with patchy fog. Otherwise, calm weather. Will be monitoring Saturday night/Sunday morning for possible frost. Still several days to monitor that topic.
The wild card in this forecast package will center on the coming weekend. Some cold air will push into the Ohio Valley. Some spots could even see their first frost. Not sure how far south and west to tug the cold air. It will be centered more to our northeast. Will continue to monitor. .
Watching Saturday night for the potential of frost across parts of our area. Still a bit early to know for sure. I have been calling for frost around the 18th for about a month now. Let’s see if that ball makes it into the basket.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Dry weather will prevail through Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Tuesday-Thursday.
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Currently, severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
