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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Win a free weather radio! WR MIDLAND 300. Scroll down a bit to see the entry instructions.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 76 to 82 degrees. Perhaps a bit warmer over our western counties in southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds at times. Small chance for a sprinkle.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: South winds becoming southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation. Very small chance for sprinkles.
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – A few clouds. Otherwise, sunshine. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 66 to 72.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated sprinkle.
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday night – Lower than normal confidence on low temperatures for Friday night. Perhaps some evening clouds. Then becoming mostly clear. Can not rule out frost on Friday night. Perhaps a better chance on Saturday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35 to 42 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and chilly.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds: North winds at 6-12 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Monitor updates if you have concerns.
Temperatures: Lows from 34 to 38 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? Perhaps some frost to contend with.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Monday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Beautiful fall weather continues!
2. Cold front arrives Friday and this will usher in the coldest air of the season, thus far
3. Frost likely Saturday night over at least southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Less confidence on southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee
4. Potentially active pattern as we push into the last part of October. Starting next week.
5. Use care if burning brush. Dry conditions still prevail over much of the area.
6. Weather Radio Contest!!! Scroll down further in the blog for entry details.
Beautiful fall weather has settled into our region. Chilly morning temperatures and patchy fog followed my mild afternoons with plenty of sunshine. Not too bad for the middle of October. It certainly could be worse.
Yes, we still need rain. I have grown used to saying those words. No measurable precipitation in the forecast through Monday. There is an ever so slight chance for a sprinkle Thursday night and early Friday morning.
Speaking of needing rain. Here are the latest maps indicating just how dry parts of our region have become since October 1st
This first map shows you how much precipitation has fallen since October 1st. Parts of our region have received no measurable rainfall. Western Kentucky did pick up some rain from this most recent event. Some places received 0.10″-0.50″
Check out how much of the Midwest is dry. Ouch.
Here is the percent of normal rainfall map. Some counties have received 0%-10% of their normal October rainfall, thus far. Look towards southeast Kentucky and eastern Tennessee. Wow, did they ever pick up some heavy rain over the last couple of weeks.
The pattern has just not been conducive for rainfall. Lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture sweeping northward into our region means that the cold fronts have remained mostly dry. We need an area of low pressure to move out of Texas and Oklahoma. That would help pull gulf moisture northward. But, for now…we remain dry.
I will have new drought index maps on Thursday. Here was the October 6th map. Some of our counties were painted in abnormally dry conditions.
A dry cold front will push through our region on Friday. This front will deliver a brief period of cold weather. Chilly high temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday. Some counties won’t get above 60 degrees on Saturday. Mostly 60’s on Sunday. Cool by October standards.
Expect Friday night and Saturday night temperatures to dip into the 30’s and 40’s. The coldest air should be on Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is when the area of high pressure will settle overhead with nearly calm wind conditions. High pressure centers typically are associated with very light surface winds. This will set the stage for the seasons first frost.
Frost is possible Friday night, but confidence on Friday night lows is a bit lower than I would like. I am more confident about Saturday night low temperatures.
Still some questions on how far south and west the frost will occur. Whether southeast Missouri will have frost is one question. Better chances as you push north and east in the region. Closer to the center of the area of high pressure. Another question is the extent of the frost. Will it be a killing frost? Finally, there remain questions as to whether or not there will be a light freeze over northern parts of southern Illinois (towards Mt Vernon). Several questions remain on the table for Saturday night.
I suspect many areas will experience their first frost.
Saturday morning lows
Sunday morning lows
Saturday morning’s jet stream. Check it out. Coming out of Canada. Delivering cold air for our region.
The weather becomes a bit more active next week. A cold front is forecast to sweep into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night (I will need to work on the timing). Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front.
Several more storm systems are showing up in the charts as we push deeper into October.
Let me show you something. This is an analog map. In other words this map is generated by a computer that looks at all the past events based on the current or forecasted weather pattern. This is centered in the 24th of October. Give or take 2-3 days (October 22nd through the 26th). It is telling me that the odds for 1″ or more of precipitation are increasing.
Might we have some decent rain chances next week and the week after? Models are hinting at this.
Perhaps we are finally starting to witness the fall pattern shape up. It has taken its time developing.
Wild card next week could be a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. A lot of factors are coming together that supports that idea. Stay tuned.
I received this photo on Twitter from David Patterson. Thanks, David. Great photo. The leaves are starting to turn.
Temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
Thursday morning low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Friday morning low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Are you seeing any changes in the leaves? Don’t forget to Tweet me a few. I will try and post them on the blog. https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
COMING SOON! Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0 A texting service. Watch for announcements over the coming week.
All you have to do is email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
- In the subject line simply type the words CONTEST
- That is all there is to it!
- Contest will end on October 19th at 5 pm. I will announce the winner on Facebook and I will email the winner.
You are entering to win a Midland WR300 NOAA Weather Radio! For details on this weather radio – CLICK HERE
No major changes in this forecast package.
No major concerns through Friday. Some patchy morning fog will be possible Thursday and Friday morning.
No action required with this forecast. Maybe a few mornings with patchy fog. Otherwise, calm weather. Will be monitoring Saturday night/Sunday morning for possible frost. Still several days to monitor that topic.
The wild card in this forecast package will center on the coming weekend. Cold air will push into the Ohio Valley. The coldest air of the fall season, thus far. Some spots could even see their first frost. The coldest temperatures will likely be over our eastern and northeastern counties vs southwestern counties. Southwestern counties, in our area, would be southeast Missouri.
Watching Friday night and Saturday night for frost potential. Especially Saturday night.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Dry weather will prevail through Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Thursday and Friday.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Currently, severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
