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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Monday night – Some evening clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm before 9 pm. Decreasing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few strong storms likely. Pea to dime size hail and 40-55 mph winds with the most intense storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? No real impacts. Maybe lightning in a few spots early in the evening as the front moves through. Pea size hail and gusty winds.
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Tuesday – Patchy fog this morning. Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 68 to 74 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds will be gusty at times 15-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 72 to 76 degrees
Winds: West/southwest to west winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 70 to 76 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds at times.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – A few clouds. Otherwise, sunshine. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 66 to 72.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s
Winds: North wnds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Frost possible? Monitor updates. Not sure that conditions will be perfect for frost, but perhaps close.
Temperatures: Lows from 34 to 40 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? Maybe some frost to contend with.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Well, more of the same. Decent week ahead of us.
2. Overnight lows will be on the cool side.
3. Perhaps some upper 30’s by the weekend?
4. Frost on Saturday night? Perhaps.
The Weather Radio Contest is below (scroll down).
This comes to mind when I typing the weather forecast. For the most part it is a repeating forecast. Although, we did luck out on Monday and pick up some rain along the cold front.
A few spots picked up a quick shower/storm on Monday afternoon. The precipitation was associated with a cold front that crept through the region during the day on Friday. A rather tranquil front, at that.
There were even a few reports of gusty winds and pea size hail with the thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage was actually quite a bit more widespread than anticipated. We won’t complain. We need the rain.
Here are the rainfall estimates. The bulk of the rain was forecast to fall over Kentucky and Tennessee. That is what happened. I was surprised to see quite a bit of activity of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, as well.
Radar estimated rainfall totals
Click for larger view
A cool high pressure will dominate over the coming days. Overnight lows will dip into the 40’s this week. Highs will mostly be in the 60’s and 70’s. Nice weather for October. Fallish.
The bad news is that widespread rain is currently not in the forecast. Not the best situation. We are now entering drought conditions over some of our local counties. Some of you have picked up less than 1″ of rain over the past 30 days.
No major changes in the pattern through at least Thursday/Friday.
We should dip into the 30’s by the weekend. That could mean some light frost. Still a bit early to know for sure. I was thinking a risk for frost around the 18th. I might have come close with that particular weather dart.
Let’s look at the temperature anomalies for later this weekend and early next week.
Will we be above or below normal on the 17th, 18th, and 19th when it comes to high temperatures? Charts show below normal temperatures. Scale is at the bottom of the image. Image is from weatherbell.com
Normal high temperatures are around 72 degrees. We will definitely be below normal this coming weekend (and several days before then, as well)
Blue would indicate below normal temperatures. Chilly weekend ahead of us!
This first image is for Friday
This next image is for Saturday
and the image below is for Sunday
Temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Wednesday morning low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Are you seeing any changes in the leaves? Don’t forget to Tweet me a few. I will try and post them on the blog.
Here is a photograph I snapped yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
All you have to do is email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
- In the subject line simply type the words CONTEST
- That is all there is to it!
- Contest will end on October 19th at 5 pm. I will announce the winner on Facebook and I will email the winner.
You are entering to win a Midland WR300 NOAA Weather Radio! For details on this weather radio – CLICK HERE
No major changes in this forecast package. Small adjustments to wind and temperature.
No major concerns through Thursday. Calm weather will prevail after Monday nights thunderstorms. Some patchy morning fog will be possible Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms Monday evening. Lightning and gusty winds. Brief downpours. Otherwise,no action required with this forecast. Maybe a few mornings with patchy fog. Otherwise, calm weather.
The wild card in this forecast package will center on the coming weekend. Some cold air will push into the Ohio Valley. Some spots could even see their first frost. Not sure how far south and west to tug the cold air. It will be centered more to our northeast. Will continue to monitor. .
Watching Saturday night for the potential of frost across parts of our area. Still a bit early to know for sure. I have been calling for frost around the 18th for about a month now. Let’s see if that ball makes it into the basket.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Locally heavy rain on Monday evening. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through Friday. Our dry spell continues.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Tuesday-Thursday.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
