We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
Located in Paducah, Kentucky. You can find Mclintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Columbus Day – Monday – Becoming cloudy during the afternoon. A chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s perhaps a few middle 80’s. Very warm for October..
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Wind switching to the west/northwest later in the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A line of showers and thunderstorms may push through the area. Coming in from the northwest.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Some thunderstorms with lightning are possible today.
Monday night – Some evening clouds. A chance for some showers and storms early (before 9 pm). Decreasing clouds. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% early
What impact is expected? No real impacts. Lightning possible early in the evening.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40’s.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 72 to 76 degrees
Winds: West/southwest to west winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 70 to 76 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday – A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 66 to 72.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60’s
Winds: North wnds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Reed Electric, Heating & Air in Metropolis, IL offers full electrical, heating, and air conditioning services, as well as automatic transfer generators. Our licensed and insured service technicians serve Southern Illinois and Western KY with 24 hour service. Free estimates available for all new installations!
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Weak cold front passes through the region on Monday
2. A couple of showers or thunderstorms possible along the front.
3. Coolish after frontal passage into the end of the week
4. Mostly dry weather continues, unfortunately
Yawn. Please wake me up when the weather returns. Wow, what a streak of calm weather for our region. We had a couple of rain events in September. We have had one event in October, thus far. Dry is the word for many areas. Yes, parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois did well in the rain department back in September. But, many other areas were bone dry.
The dry pattern will continue into at LEAST this week.
A weak cold front will push through our region Monday afternoon and evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front. The showers would move in from the northwest and slide southeast. Also some development in western Kentucky and Tennessee will be possible.
The atmosphere does not have a lot of moisture to work with. Model guidance does lead me to believe there will be at least a chance for a couple of showers and storms. No severe weather expected.
Winds will be a bit gusty on Monday, as well. Expect 10-20 mph winds from time to time. Mainly out of the southwest and then becoming west/northwest after the cold front passes through.
Temperatures on Monday night into Friday morning will be coolish, but not cold. Perhaps some below normal readings, but nothing too extreme.
Let me show you the jet stream at the 500 mb level. That would be 18,000′ up in the atmosphere. Notice how the winds are coming out of the northwest? Northwest flow for our region starting on Monday night. That will keep temperatures cool.
This first image is for Monday. Notice the lobe to our north? Nice trough coming in. But, a fairly weak cold front.
If this pattern were to continue into the winter then we might be quite chilly.
This next image is for Thursday. Notice how the winds are diving down out of the Pacific northwest? Not quite the coldest air. But, still cool.
This next image is for Friday. Again, mostly a northwest flow. A bit steeper on Friday. This could mean a chilly weekend.
And finally, next week. The flow becomes more zonal. Zonal flow means west to east. Rather boring weather pattern when that happens.
Some guidance is pointing towards 30’s by the 16th-19th of October. Still some time to monitor this subject. The brunt of the cold air could be shoved a bit further east and northeast. I was thinking we might see a frost potential around the 18th. Again, low confidence at this point. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Here is the probability for below normal temperatures for this coming week. Decent shot at below normal temperatures. The greatest probabilities are well to our east. Near 100% along the East Coast and into the northeast. However, our region is situated in the 70-80% probability zone.
The precipitation outlook for the same time period. Brown represents drier than normal. Obviously, odds favor us remaining mostly dry. 75% chance, according to the chart.
The long range data shows no sign of a pattern change. Models are hinting at a bigger rain event the fourth week of the month. This is a crazy pattern. Very dry. Fire season is upon us and that could be an issue over the coming weeks.
Here is that fourth week of October storm. This is so far off that confidence is about zippo. But, something to monitor. Nothing else to watch! Image is from wright-weather.com
The purple/blue/pink represent rain and thunderstorms.
I am more concerned about the long range cycle that is now developing. Typically October and early November establish the winter pattern. Let’s hope not. We could have a drought if that is indeed the case.
Let’s look at a few more charts.
Monday morning low temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Some of you will soon start seeing some color in the leaves. Don’t forget to Tweet me a few. I will try and post them on the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Updated the short term forecast at 1 pm. Added a chance for some showers and thunderstorms over the whole area. Many areas will likely remain dry
If a thunderstorm develops along the front then lightning would be the only concern.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front. This precipitation will move from the northwest towards the southeast.
The wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a shower or thunderstorm forms along a cold front on Monday afternoon. The front will be moving through some fairly dry air. However, model guidance does paint a couple of showers or storms along the front. Thus, the wild card will be whether or not this actually does develop. Most areas will remain dry.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. I am watching October 18th through the 28th for a cold snap. Maybe frost?
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Some areas could pick up 0.10″-0.30″ as the front moves through the area. Many areas will remain dry.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Sunday, and ZERO/ONE on Monday.
.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for thunder on Monday afternoon.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
