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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Mostly clear and chilly. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 40 to 45 degrees
Winds: North winds at 5 mph. Winds becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Columbus Day – Monday – Partly sunny and pleasant. Windy, at times. Small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Some evening clouds. Decreasing clouds. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 72 to 76 degrees
Winds: Southwest to west winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 70 to 76 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some of you did okay on Friday’s rainfall totals
2. Nice weather into Sunday night
3. Cold front on Monday. Very small chance for a shower
4. Dry most of next week
5. Still watching for my frost chances later this month
You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below). That includes the frost forecast.
Well, most areas picked up a little bit of rain on Friday. I measured a trace in Massac County. Not much and not nearly enough. However, down along the Kentucky and Tennessee border and a few southeast Missouri Counties some places picked up 0.50″-1.00″
The models showed the potential for a band of enhanced precipitation. I was skeptical. But, that did end up happening. Models completely missed the placement of that band. I figured someone might pick up a bit more. The odds favored our southern counties. And, that is what happened.
I am glad some places picked up rain. We need it. It might be awhile until we have another decent chance for widespread showers. This dry spell is concerning. I am concerned this could be the winter pattern. However, we still have some time left to establish the winter pattern. Several more weeks. There is a larger storm showing up in the charts around the third week of October. That would match my cold blast forecast. Long way off. We shall see.
Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from Friday. I posted this yesterday, as well. The scale is on the left. Click image to enlarge it. Fulton county, Kentucky did quite well on this event. I did hear some areas around Murray, Kentucky picked up 0.50″-1.00″
A cold front will push through the region on Monday and Monday night. Moisture starved front. There are some model guidance packages showing a couple of showers in the region. I mentioned it, but believe the odds are low for precipitation. I will continue to monitor the trends.
The front will deliver slightly cooler air for Monday night into Wednesday.
I am still watching for a cold snap towards the third week of the month. But, as far as rainfall…slim pickins. Not the best news.
The models are starting to show hints of that cold snap I have been talking about. This would be the third week of the month. Long way off…confidence is low, of course. But, let’s watch the trends.
I am concerned about how dry September and October have been for some of our counties. I am a big believer in repeating patterns. This is called the long range cycle. Normally it sets up in October and November. At this pace the signals are concerning for below normal precipitation this winter. I will continue to monitor trends.
The GFS does take on a more active look in the long range. Long range meaning confidence is low on the details. But, what is of interest would be some changes occurring in the Pacific Ocean this week and next. And, that could look to more active weather in our region down the road.
This first map is for October 22nd. Again, long way off. What I wanted to point out is the models are becoming a bit more active. We have not witnessed active weather for quite some time. Might it soon change? Might we be entering a fall pattern around the third week of October? We shall see.
This next map is for October 25th. Don’t forget that we typically do have some severe weather in October and November. Severe weather is not just for the spring months.
Updated winds and temperatures a bit. No major changes. Still monitoring Monday for small shower chances.
No major concerns in the weather department over the coming days.
No.
The wild card in this forecast will be cloud cover on Monday. Another weak system will pass through the region on Monday. Appears mostly dry, but we may see an increase in clouds.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. I am watching October 18th through the 28th for a cold snap. Maybe frost?
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Not expecting measurable rainfall Saturday through Monday. There is a small chance for a shower on Monday, but for now let’s keep the course and keep it mostly dry. I will update on Sunday if it appears a few showers may form.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Sunday, and Monday.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
