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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday night – Mostly clear and cool. Frost possible. Small chance for a freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Monday – Becoming cloudy. Some rain showers possible over the central and eastern half of our region. Less likely the further west you go. Meaning Poplar Bluff the chances are small. Paducah and western Kentucky, southern Illinois, and northwest Tennessee will have a decent chance for a few rain showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% western counties and 40% central counties (far southern Illinois and far western Kentucky) and 60% eastern counties (Pennyrile area).
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered rain showers
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain is possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday night – Decreasing cloudiness. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Becoming cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated perhaps western counties
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Veterans Day – Increasing clouds. Becoming windy. Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east over the area. Some heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 68 to 72 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 10-30 mph. Gusty winds. Gusts above 40 mph will be possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% as the day wears on into the evening hours. From west to east. Storms will be moving at speeds of 50-70 mph.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Storms are possible. Can not rule out heavy storms at some point during the afternoon and evening hours.
Is severe weather expected? Possibly. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Rain, lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds. Monitor updates.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. Gusty winds. Some storms during the evening hours could be intense.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s.
Winds: Winds become westerly at 10-25 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% early then decreasing to 0% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the evening. A band of storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening activities may have to deal with rain.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Possibly some evening thunderstorms. Lightning and heavy downpours. Gusty winds
Thursday – Partly sunny and cooler. Breezy at times.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds: West winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some clouds for Monday. Maybe a few showers.
2. Calm on Tuesday
3. Small chance for a shower or storm on Tuesday night. Mainly over our western and northwestern counties.
4. Strong cold front arrives on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some more rain and maybe even some storms
5. Calm on Thursday and Friday. Cooler behind our Wednesday front.
Sunday was a nice day for the region. Cool, but it is fall!
Monday will deliver some clouds and perhaps even a light shower over southern Illinois down into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Overall, the rain chances aren’t that great the further west and north you head in the region. Best chances would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Perhaps someone will puck up a trace of rain to 0.10″.
We clear out Monday night and on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a little bit milder ahead of our next storm system.
Our next system arrives on Wednesday. A strong cold front. Very impressive wind fields with this system. A low is forecast to deepen as it moves from Kansas and Nebraska into northern Missouri and Iowa. Some of the charts deepen the low into the 970s on the millibar scale. That is quite impressive, if true.
It will be a bit of a wind machine for the Missouri Valley and even gusty winds into our region. Those deep lows wind themselves up and we end up with windy conditions as the tight pressure gradient passes. Expect a lake wind advisory on Veteran’s Day. Use care if you have to be on area lakes.
Now the real question for Wednesday is going to be the threat for a few thunderstorms. This is one of the more impressive systems I have looked at in 2015 for our region. Wind fields are off the charts. But, once again CAPE is missing. CAPE is a measure of energy or instability in the atmosphere. And, without CAPE you are not going to have severe storms. But, some of the models are painting 100-500 CAPE levels. If that happens then severe thunderstorms will erupt over at least Missouri and perhaps into Arkansas. They would then sweep through our region. All modes of severe weather could occur.
Let’s monitor this system. I am not ready to bite on the idea of severe thunderstorms, just yet. I want to see more model trends and guidance that indicates we will have some CAPE. Otherwise, a gusty line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. This front will sweep from west to east. Rain should end by midnight over most of the region.
Monitor updates on this situation. The forecast for severe weather is in flux.
I am forecasting a colder than normal December. I have been forecasting a warmer than normal November with above normal precipitation for November, as well. We are off to a decent start on both of those counts. We still need more rain. So, keep it coming!
No major changes to this forecast package. Tweaked the % numbers for rain on Monday.
Frost possible on Monday morning. Otherwise, I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday evening for some thunderstorms. Too early to know about severe weather threat.
A few showers possible on Monday. Mainly our eastern and southeastern counties. Monitor Wednesday for some storms.
The wild card in this forecast will be our next storm system on Wednesday. Perhaps more thunderstorms. But, a bit early to know if we have to deal with severe weather concerns. This system is a bit stronger than the last one. Worth monitoring.
We could have frost on Monday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain anticipated through Monday morning.
Some data shows a few showers on Monday. Perhaps 0.10″-0.25″ if it does materialize.
Rainfall on Wednesday could amount to 0.30″ – 0.60″ with locally heavier amounts if some storms form. Precipitation should be moving fast.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Monday.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
