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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Clearing and colder. Frost possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Sunday – Partly sunny and cool. Fall.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear and cool. Frost possible. Small chance for a freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Monday – Becoming clouds. A small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered possible. Low confidence on the showers.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I am watching for a couple of showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None (maybe wet roadways if those showers form)
Monday night – Decreasing cloudiness. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Becoming cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Veterans Day – Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east over the area. Some heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 68 to 72 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Storms are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Possibly. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Rain, lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds. Monitor updates.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s.
Winds: Winds become westerly at 10-25 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% early
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening activities may have to deal with rain.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Possibly some evening thunderstorms. Lightning and heavy downpours. Gusty winds
Thursday – Partly sunny and cooler. Breezy at times.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds: West winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Likely dry on Thursday if the front pushes through.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm for Sunday with frost possible.
2. Still watching Monday for a few showers. Low confidence on Mondays shower chances.
3. Another rain maker for Wednesday?
Calm weather will prevail on Sunday. It will feel like fall. Lows on Sunday morning will dip into the 30s. Frost possible. Highs on Sunday will only rise into the 50s. A bit cool. It is November!
Monday is a bit iffy right now. Some data shows rain showers. Other data does not. I included the mention of a few showers. But, confidence is low on the Monday forecast. I will iron it out on Sunday. Keep this in mind.
Our next big weather maker will arrive around Wednesday. This looks very similar to our last storm system. A strong cold front will sweep through the region with showers and thunderstorms. This one should move through during the day time hours and early evening. Still 4/5 days out. Tweaking will likely be necessary. But, that is how it appears at this time.
This system is a little stronger than the last one. There remains some questions as to whether we will have to be concerned about severe thunderstorms. Certainly can’t rule it out, but it is a bit early to jump on the idea. Let’s monitor this as we move through the coming days. Keep it in the back of our mind. Watching Wednesday for thunderstorms.
We dry out by Thursday. If you noticed I moved the storm chances up a day. Thursday into Saturday should be dry. Cooler behind this big fall weather system.
Here is the GFS model for Wednesday. Check out the impressive low pressure over Iowa. Yes, that is 980 millibars! For a meteorologist that is impressive. See the circles around it? Those are lines of equal pressure. Where you see them packed close together you can expect very windy conditions.
An impressive fall storm system. Snow on the back side. But, not for us. No snow in our forecast, just yet.
I am forecasting a colder than normal December. I have been forecasting a warmer than normal November with above normal precipitation for November, as well. We are off to a decent start on both of those counts. We still need more rain. So, keep it coming!
Moved rain chances up a day. Switched the Thursday forecast with Wednesday.
No major concerns. Frost possible on Sunday morning. Will monitor Wednesday for thunderstorm chances.
Not on Sunday or Monday. Monitor Wednesday for some storms.
The wild card in this forecast will be our next storm system on Wednesday. Perhaps more thunderstorms. But, a bit early to know if we have to deal with severe weather concerns. This system is a bit stronger than the last one. Worth monitoring.
Chance on Sunday, November 8th and the morning of Monday the 9th.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain anticipated through Monday morning.
Some data shows a few showers on Monday. Perhaps 0.10″-0.25″ if it does materialize. Lower than normal confidence.
Rainfall on Wednesday could amount to 0.50″-1.00″. Still 4-5 days out on that event.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Sunday and Monday.
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
