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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Just a few remaining clouds. Clearing. Cold. A hard freeze. Temperatures below 32 degrees for a prolonged period of time.
Temperatures: Lows from 16 to 22 degrees. Very cold for this time of the year.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8 to 16 mph early in the evening and then 5-10 mph late at night
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely
Sunday – Mostly to partly sunny. Chilly/cold. Well below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 20s
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Not as cold.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s
Winds: Light winds from the south/southwest
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Some increase in clouds.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Mostly dry, but will be monitoring a storm system to our west
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thanksgiving – Cloudy. A chance for showers, especially late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (subject to adjustments as we draw nearer)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but let’s monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways
Rain likely Thursday night – Saturday.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold Saturday night into Monday morning. Hard freeze on Sunday morning.
2. Temperatures well below normal.
3. Dry into Wednesday
4. Holiday weekend storm system?
Well, it has been a windy Saturday! Winds have gusted over 40 mph at times. This is because of a strong cold front that is pushing through the region.
We had some light rain on Saturday morning and early afternoon. That rain is pushing off to the east. A nice snow event occurred over northern parts of Illinois. Several inches of wet snow fell.
The big story for the next 24 hours will be the cold temperatures. It will feel more like winter than fall. Expect widespread lower 20s on Sunday morning. And, some spots could dip into the upper teens. Especially true over southern Illinois into southwest Indiana/northwest Kentucky.
A hard freeze will occur late Saturday night and Sunday morning.
The good news is that I am not expecting any precipitation through Wednesday.
Let’s look at temperatures for Sunday morning, Sunday afternoon, Monday morning, and Monday afternoon.
Sunday morning low temperatures. More like January than November. Widespread lower 20s. Some spots may dip into the upper teens.
Here is the high temperature forecast for Sunday. Some locations may not reach forty degrees. Cold for November!
Here are the Monday morning forecast low temperatures. Again, they could vary a bit.
We will warm up a bit on Monday.
How many degrees below normal will high temperatures be on Sunday. Glad you asked! These are the departure numbers. Well below normal.
Normal high temperatures are around 54-56 degrees.
In the middle of January our normal high temperatures is around 40-44 degrees. That gives you an idea of how cold this air mass is compared to normal readings.
I am watching a bigger storm system for Thursday into Saturday. Model data is pointing towards quite a bit of rain with this event. Right now it appears the rain may hold off until Thursday night for most of the area. However, if the storm were to speed up a bit then rain could enter the picture as early as Thursday afternoon. Let’s keep an eye on it. Models guidance is not in complete agreement on the timing. Still several days away.
Here is the GFS showing rain moving into our area on Thursday afternoon and night. Still working on the timing for this system.
Colder air will filter in behind the storm system by next Saturday and Sunday.
Speaking of colder air.
Look at this GFS model guidance temperature map for next Thursday night. What a gradient. Very cold behind this next front. Look at the warm air ahead of it. Image is from weatherbell.com Click image for a larger view.
If you have holiday travel plans then keep checking back for forecast updates. We may have to deal with some wet roadways Thursday night and Friday.
The six to ten day precipitation outlook has us outlined for above normal precipitation. High odds of that happening. This is for next Thursday through Monday.
Small changes to temperatures and wind. Monitoring the late week system. Too early for specifics. Could be some rain around Thursday night/Friday.
No major concerns.
No
The wild card will be temperatures on Saturday night. How low will they go. Expecting 20s for most of the region. Brrr.
Freeze likely Sunday morning and Monday morning. Temperatures into the 20s.
No snow anticipated. Can’t completely rule out flurries on Saturday or Sunday. Nothing major.
No frozen precipitation through Wednesday. Again, other than the small chance for a stray flurry.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain in the forecast through Wednesday.
The next system arrives Thursday-Saturday. Could be a decent rain event. Monitor updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Sunday through Wednesday.
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder Thursday night?
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder?
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
