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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Perhaps a freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle twenties to lower thirties. Coldest northern and northwestern counties where dew points are much lower.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for some late night showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s. More clouds would mean slightly warmer temperatures.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% late
Coverage of precipitation? Towards morning scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways after 3 am.
Saturday – Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Then showers ending in the afternoon (ends west to east). Chilly. Becoming windy. Clearing sky conditions during the afternoon hours. Falling temperatures in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 46 to 52 degree range
Winds: Winds may start out from the southwest. Then turning north/northwest wind at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds at times. Gusts above 30 mph times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread for a few hours. Light rain.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would check radars in the morning. Not the best day developing.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Cold. A freeze likely. Temperatures below 32 degrees for a prolonged period of time.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds: Northwest winds at 8 to 16 mph early in the evening and then 0-5 mph late at night
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely
Sunday – Mostly to partly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 20s
Winds: North winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy
Temperatures: Lows in the 40 to 45 degree range
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Some increase in clouds.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways
Thanksgiving – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but let’s monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Mostly calm and cool weather into the weekend
2. Cold front passes on Friday night and Saturday morning. Some clouds and maybe a sprinkle/light shower.
3. Cold on Saturday and Sunday
4. Hard freeze likely Sunday morning.
5. Cold next Saturday into the first week of December? Appears likely.
No significant changes in this forecast update.
We have a fairly calm weather pattern settling over the region for a few days. Yes, there will be a cold front pass through the area late Friday night and Saturday morning. Some clouds and perhaps a few showers along the front. Light in nature.
The bigger consequence of the cold front will be colder air filtering into the region on Saturday. Temperatures may actually fall during the day on Saturday. Expect highs to top out around 50 degrees. Some locations may not reach that.
Much colder air arrives on Saturday night and Sunday morning. A widespread freeze is anticipated across the region. Expect temperatures to drop into the 20s. I can’t completely rule out a few favored cold spots dropping into the upper teens. Especially over southern Illinois or southwest Indiana. Cold, either way.
Temperatures on Sunday will likely remain in the 40s. Brrr. Well below normal temperatures.
I am watching another storm system for next Thursday or Friday. This does not look as if it will produce snow. But, rather rain for our region. I will need to fine tune the arrival of the precipitation chances. Let’s keep an eye on it.
No significant snow in the short range forecast.
A period of sustained cold may move into the area next Saturday and last into the first week of December.
Then, we might warm back up. We shall see.
Look at December. At one time I was thinking December might deliver colder than normal weather. But, almost all of the data indicates warmer than normal. So, that is how December might shape up. If it is warmer than normal then precipitation might also be above normal.
This map is the seasonal forecast map for December. Red would indicate above normal temperatures. That is a LOT of red!
I do believe January into March will deliver colder than normal conditions. A back loaded winter has been my thinking.
We shall see!
Updated Friday night into Saturday with more clouds and higher chances for light rain.
No major concerns.
No
The wild card will be temperatures on Saturday night. How low will they go. Expecting 20s for most of the region. Brrr.
Frost possible Friday morning. Freeze likely Saturday night/Sunday morning and perhaps Monday morning, as well. Temperatures down into the 20s.
No snow anticipated.
No frozen precipitation through day five.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain in the forecast through Sunday.
Maybe a few sprinkles or light showers late Friday night and Saturday morning. Less than 0.05″.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Friday through next Tuesday.
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
