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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday night – Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
A reminder…eastern counties may not see much rain accumulation until the front arrives. That would be Evansville down to Hopkinsville. Perhaps more in Evansville earlier on vs Hopkinsville.
I have noted some data showing very little rain over our southeastern counties until the front on Tuesday night.
Tuesday – Cloudy. Rain likely during the morning hours. We might see some sort of lull in the rain late morning into Tuesday afternoon or evening. Lower confidence on that part of the forecast. Then heavy rain moves back in from the west late this afternoon and evening. That will cross the region into the evening hours and overnight hours.
Temperatures: Highs in the 64 to 68 degree range.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 12-24 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% early, but a lull in precipitation is possible on Tuesday before a heavier rain band moves in on Tuesday night
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread (especially first half of the day)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case we do have widespread rain
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. Rain likely. Perhaps heavy at times as a line pushes through from west to east.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times. Winds becoming south and southwest after midnight at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No, but gusty winds possible
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday – Cloudy. Rain showers ending early in the day. Perhaps becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Windy.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s and then falling temperatures in the afternoon.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 12-24 mph. Gusts to 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% before 6 am. Then dropping to 20% by the lunch hour.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread early.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Believe the rain will end by the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday night – A few clouds. Otherwise, clearing sky conditions and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Perhaps a freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze
Friday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible/freeze possible
Saturday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 20s. Freeze.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely.
Sunday – Partly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 40s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain likely Monday night into Tuesday night
2. Perhaps a lull at some point on Tuesday late morning or afternoon
3. Keep in mind our southeastern counties may not see a lot of rainfall accumulation until the front on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
4. Windy on Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.
5. Not anticipating severe weather. That is the good news!
No real changes from my previous outlook.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We should experience two time periods where moderate to heavy rain will be more likely. One on Monday night and another on Tuesday night. Tuesday night providing the heaviest rain. More than half of this systems rain may fall on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will be right ahead and along the cold front.
Strong forcing along the front coupled with very high PWAT values will produce torrential downpours on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This would be the time frame where some ditches would most likely overflow and some ponding of water issues could occur. The risk for widespread flooding is low. But, certainly there could be some local issues here and there. Especially true of areas that pick up heavy rain on Monday night/Tuesday morning. That would most likely occur over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Light to moderate rain will be the general rule on Monday into Tuesday morning. Again, perhaps a period of heavy rain,as well, on Monday night. Then perhaps a lull in the system during the late morning hours and afternoons hours on Tuesday. Then the rain will pick up again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Keep that in mind. It is not going to rain all the time from Monday morning through Wednesday morning. Although our western counties from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Perryville, Missouri and then into southwest Illinois may see more hours with rain than without.
Rainfall totals with this system should be quite healthy. Expect widespread 2.20-3.20″ rainfall totals over much of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Expect widespread 1.2-2.2 inches over the rest of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. The least amount of rain will fall over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Those areas might not see a lot of rain accumulation until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Don’t be surprised if totals are light over our eastern counties early on in this system and then pick up late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The bulk of the rain, over our eastern counties, may fall when the cold front pushes through the area. Again, Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Eastern counties means from Evansville south towards Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Although a county west of there perhaps, as well.
As far as heavier totals are concerned and flooding:
Data indicates the potential for pockets of 3-5″ of rain over the Poplar Bluff, Missouri area into the Farmington, Missouri area. This is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall.
With that said, data does indicate heavier totals are at least possible over much of southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. We could see some totals over 3″ in those areas, as well. Becoming less and less likely as you move further east/southeast.
The most likely range, however, will be 1-3″ for southern Illinois and western Kentucky (least amounts expected over our eastern counties Evansville to Hopkinsville). Some unlucky soul could end up with a months worth of rain from this system. Certainly possible. Especially over our western counties in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Say along a line from Poplar Bluff towards Perryville, Missouri and then towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.
A lot of this rain will fall over a two to two and a half day period of time. I have concerns, however, that a lot of this rain (perhaps more than half of it) will fall right along the cold front. If that happens then some flood warnings might need to be issued. Especially true over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Something to keep an eye on as we move forward.
Overall, the flash flood risk for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky is tiny. Yes, some of those roads that have a bit of water on them when we have a downpour could have issues. But, I don’t see widespread problems.
Some of the models show 1-2″+ falling with the passage of the cold front on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Let’s look at some maps
I wanted to show you what that line of showers and storms will look like on Tuesday evening/night. This will be the line of most concern.
This is the 7 pm radar shot (model future cast radar). Notice that lull I forecasted for Tuesday afternoon and evening over much of our region.
This is my best shot, at this point, on totals.
The first map would be the minimum amount that is expected to fall.
The second map is what should fall (I took a little bit of a conservative approach. It is certainly possible that if the front does produce a quick 1.0-2.0″ of rain then my totals will be low)
The last image is the maximum amount expected.
Let’s look ahead to the weekend. Temperature anomalies should be below normal. The blue and green on this map indicates below normal temperatures. And, I pulled up next Wednesday/Thursday. The thinking is that we might have a cool Thanksgiving Day. Still a long way off.
Then next Thursday. Thanksgiving.
But, look at December. At one time I was thinking December might deliver colder than normal weather. But, almost all of the data indicates warmer than normal. So, that is how December might shape up. If it is warmer than normal then precipitation might also be above normal.
I do believe January into March will deliver colder than normal conditions. A back loaded winter has been my thinking.
We shall see!
No major changes. I adjusted temperatures on Thursday night.
Concerned about heavy rain on Monday night through Wednesday morning.
Perhaps the heaviest totals on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I can’t rule out some flooding. The prolonged rain event should be spread out enough to prevent significant flash flooding. However, some of the models are showing excessive rainfall amounts on Tuesday night. If training occurs (storms or heavy rain moving over the same areas repeatedly) then I can’t rule out some flood warnings. Most likely this would be over parts of southeast Missouri (for any warnings). Perhaps southwest Illinois. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Two periods of moderate to heavy rain
1. Monday night/Tuesday early morning
2. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
Clean out those leaves from gutters and street drainage areas. A lot of rain is headed our way. Could cause some ponding of water on roadways.
The wild card for the coming week is an easy one to pick. How much rain will fall and where will the heaviest numbers be placed.
Expect 1-3″ over the entire region. But, some places could pick up 3-5″ over our western counties, especially.
Keep in mind our southeastern counties in Kentucky may not see much rain until the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Frost possible Friday and Saturday morning. Maybe a freeze.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Click map for a larger view. Graphic is from weatherbell.com
This graphic is produced by NOAA and gives you a broad-brushed look at expected totals.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE Monday night and Tuesday. Thunder possible, but not anticipating severe weather.
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible before 8 am.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
