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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Periods of strong winds. Cloudy. Rain likely. Perhaps heavy at times as a cold front presses eastward through the region.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 15-35 mph. Gusty at times. Winds becoming south and southwest after midnight at 10-25 mph. Again, gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but gusty winds possible. Small risk that one of the thunderstorm cells could bring down higher wind gusts.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds could knock some branches down. Heaviest rains could cause ponding of water on roadways and perhaps even brief flooded roadways. Mainly those problem spot areas that always have issues. Widespread flooding is not a concern.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday – Cloudy. Rain showers ending early in the day. Rain ending from west to east. Should be a sharp cutoff on radar as the front moves through the region. Perhaps becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Windy. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s and then falling temperatures in the afternoon.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 12-24 mph. Gusts to 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% before 6 am. Then dropping to 20% by the lunch hour.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread early (before 6 am).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Believe the rain will end by the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday night – A few clouds. Otherwise, clearing sky conditions and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Perhaps a freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze
Friday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible/freeze possible
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 20s
Winds: North winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost/freeze likely
Sunday – Partly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 40s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s
Winds: North winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible.
Monday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some heavy downpours on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
2. We dry out Wednesday morning and afternoon.
3. Cooler temperatures into the weekend. Should remain dry through Sunday.
The main issue on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be a strong cold front pushing through the region.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms along this front. Gusty winds, as well. I would not be surprised if we receive a lot of reports of 30-40 mph winds as the front pushes through the area. And, some gusts to 50 mph not out of the question.
Severe weather threat is low, but now it is not zero. A couple of thunderstorms in this line could bring down some gusty winds. Let’s keep an eye on this. Tornado threat appears very small.
The Storm Prediction Center did expand the risk zone a bit further north today into our region (this is for Tuesday evening).
Rainfall totals tonight will be in the 1.2 to 2.4″ range. Pockets of higher totals possible. The rain will spread into southeast Missouri early this evening and then through the rest of the region overnight. The rain will exit tomorrow morning over our far eastern counties. Likely exiting those counties after 9 am.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
The system is moving along and that will prevent widespread problems from flooding. I don’t really see a significant flood threat for southern Illinois or western Kentucky.
Perhaps a few issues in southeast Missouri (because there are more hills and creeks). Maybe some reports of water over the roads briefly. Can’t rule out a couple of flood advisories or flash flood warnings in southeast Missouri. Already seeing some in south central Missouri. Just keep that in mind.
Also, when the heaviest cells move through the region we could see a few reports of water problems on roadways that always flood when heavy rain falls. You know those roads. Problems should be brief/short lived.
Cooler weather arrives for the rest of the week. And, dry conditions into the weekend.
Coldest morning will be Sunday morning when 22 to 28 degrees will be possible over the region. A freeze will once again occur. Some of you have already had a freeze. So, not a big deal for many. But, a few of you are still protecting plans.
PLANT ALERT for Saturday and Sunday morning 🙂
Let’s look ahead to the weekend. Temperature anomalies should be below normal. The blue and green on this map indicates below normal temperatures. And, I pulled up next Wednesday/Thursday. The thinking is that we might have a cool Thanksgiving Day. Still a long way off.
Then next Thursday. Thanksgiving. Hmmm Above normal temperatures just to our west. Cooler than normal temperatures over our region. Another storm system developing? Still 7-8 days away. Will monitor.
Look at December. At one time I was thinking December might deliver colder than normal weather. But, almost all of the data indicates warmer than normal. So, that is how December might shape up. If it is warmer than normal then precipitation might also be above normal.
This map is the seasonal forecast map for December. Red would indicate above normal temperatures. That is a LOT of red!
I do believe January into March will deliver colder than normal conditions. A back loaded winter has been my thinking.
We shall see!
No major changes. Enhanced wind wording for Tuesday night.
The main concern will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A line of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will push across our region from west to east.
Some ponding on roadways possible. Also, a few ditches might overflow their banks.
A small risk for severe weather. Higher chance for some 30-40 mph wind gusts along the cold front. Perhaps a bit higher. Wind fields aloft are very strong. Gusty winds into Wednesday afternoon.
Avoid flooded roadways. Some brief problems could occur on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Strong winds could cause a few problems.
The wild card will be rainfall totals on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move west to east across our region. Some heavy downpours likely along the front. I would not be surprised to see some spots pick up a quick 1-2″ from this line.
If there were to be any flooding problems then this would be the time frame. Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. I don’t believe we will experience widespread flooding problems. We have been in drought conditions. We can handle some decent rainfall totals.
Southeast Missouri, which has received the most rainfall, would be the area of most concern
Frost possible Friday and Saturday morning. Maybe a freeze.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Expect widespread 1.2 to 2.4″ of rain on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Thunder possible, but not anticipating severe weather.
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Tuesday night: Small risk for severe weather on Tuesday night. Strong wind fields aloft. Some gusty winds very likely with showers, storms, and the cold front.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible before 8 am.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
