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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Clear and cold. Frost possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: South winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Sunday – Partly sunny. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs from 58 to 65 degrees
Winds: South/southwest becoming southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a shower late at night. Most likely over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% eastern counties and 60% for western counties (southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, perhaps
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways
Monday – Cloudy. Rain showers likely before noon over at least southeast Missouri. Rain showers will spread eastward into the day. Still some question about how fast precipitation moves into southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15-20 mph possible late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% (subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread at times
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B – especially for the afternoon hours. A little uncertain on the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday night – Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Tuesday – Cloudy. Some showers possible. We could have somewhat of a lull in precipitation during part of Tuesday. Uncertain on this.
Temperatures: Highs in the 64 to 68 degree range.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 12-24 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low/Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case we do have widespread rain
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. Rain likely. Perhaps heavy at times.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times. Winds becoming south and southwest after midnight at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No, but gusty winds possible
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday – Cloudy. Rain showers ending early in the day. Rain ending from west to east. Should be a sharp cutoff on radar as the front moves through the region. Perhaps becoming partly sunny in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60s.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% before 6 am. Then dropping to 20% by the lunch hour.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread early.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Believe the rain will end by the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday night – A few clouds. Otherwise, clearing sky conditions and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Pleasant for the middle of November.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Seasonably chilly start for Sunday morning church services
2. A nice Sunday on tap for the region
3. A few showers by Sunday night (late and especially over southeast Missouri)
4. Heavy rain possible Monday into Wednesday morning.
5. Just how much rain is going to fall?
I hope you are having a nice weekend. The weather is decent. Coolish, but it is fall. Not too bad. We did have numerous readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s on Saturday morning. A freeze for some of you.
Here were the Saturday morning low temperatures
Our big weather story is going to be quite a bit of rain from Monday into Wednesday morning. Models have sped the system up a little bit. Perhaps it will exit Wednesday morning. Let’s continue to monitor the timing.
I suspect we will have showers on radar late Sunday night over southeast Missouri. Quite a bit of dry air to overcome. We may have some showers on radar that won’t actually be reaching the ground. At least early on in the event.
By Monday morning rain showers should spread into southeast Missouri and at least southwest Illinois. It may take a little bit longer to push into southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. But, I won’t rule it out before noon for all the above mentioned areas.
By Monday afternoon the rain should continue to slowly spread eastward. Again, the bulk on Monday could end up over the western half of the region vs the eastern half. I will show you some maps shortly.
The rain will increase in coverage and intensity on Monday night and part of Tuesday. We could even hear some rumbles of thunder. Not expecting severe weather. But, some gusty winds certainly possible with any convection (storms) embedded in the precipitation shield.
Heavy downpours will spread from west to east on Tuesday night. There could be some sort of lull at some point on Tuesday late morning or afternoon. Although, confidence is low on that subject.
Perhaps the heaviest rains will fall somewhere between noon on Tuesday and 8 am on Wednesday morning. During this time the cold front will track west to east across the region. This forcing will enhance rainfall. Perhaps even a line of convection with the front. Gusty winds possible during this time, as well.
Rainfall totals
Still a bit early for specific maps. However, the common theme in the model guidance over the past 48 hours has been to center the heaviest rain over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. The real question is how far east to take the bigger totals. It appears our eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky) would receive less rainfall than far far western Kentucky.
I feel comfortable telling you that almost all of my forecast counties will pick up 1-2″ of rain between Monday and Wednesday morning.
Where the heaviest rain bands are situated you can expect training to occur. That means moderate to heavy rain tracking over the same counties repeatedly. Where this occurs you will see totals of 2-3″. Isolated higher amounts certainly possible. Again, the odds appear to favor southeast Missouri and parts of southwest Illinois for these totals.
I am planning on bringing out the probability maps on Sunday. If you remember, I use these during winter storms and big rain events. These maps will give you a county breakdown of where I expect the bigger totals and the chances for those totals.
Again, models are still coming into agreement about this system. Let’s ramp up and not down.
I would suggest cleaning out gutters and drainage areas where leaves may have collected.
Let’s take a look at some maps
Let me show you the winds aloft. These the 850 mb winds/streamlines. That is about 5000′ up in the atmosphere. They are coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico. That means rich moisture flow. And, this continue for an extended period of time. That is one thing I look for when it comes to forecasting heavy rain. An extended period of rich moisture flowing over one area.
This is for Tuesday morning around 12 am.
This next map is for Tuesday morning around the breakfast hour.
This next map is for Tuesday around the lunch hour. Moisture continues to stream into our region.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar. The green colors and yellow colors represent rainfall totals for the previous six hours.
Heavier totals are yellow into orange.
This first image is for Monday morning between 12 am and 6 am. You can see some light accumulation of rain over mostly the western half of our region. That would include southeast Missouri, far southwest Illinois, and perhaps nipping at Kentucky.
NOTE: The numbers on the right are Millimeters and NOT inches.
This next image is from 6 am Monday morning until 12 pm Monday afternoon. Rain continues to spread east/northeast over our region.
Some debate about the precipitations eastward movement. Right now the best rain chances appear to be over southeast Missouri on Monday morning. But, could spread further east. Lower confidence on how fast the rain moves eastward.
This next image is from 12 pm on Monday through 6 pm on Monday evening. You can see that heavier band across parts of south central Missouri into southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. See the dark green? That is heavier rain.
Note that there is little to no rain during that time period of western Kentucky. This will need to be monitored. Keep in mind that some areas won’t experience as much rain as other areas. But, everyone should pick up quite a bit of rain.
This next image is from 6 pm on Tuesday evening through 11 pm on Tuesday night. Notice the yellow colors. Some heavier downpours perhaps.
This next image is from 1 am on Tuesday night through 6 am on Tuesday morning. Notice that bright band back over western Missouri and Arkansas. That is associated with the cold front. The additional forcing should mean heavier downpours along the front.
Watch the heavier band shift eastward. The cold front advances into the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Heavy rain along the front and gusty winds.
This image is from noon on Tuesday through the early evening hours. The front should advance into southeast Missouri by late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Moving from west to east.
Remember these colors represent the previous six hours of rainfall totals.
This next image is from 6 pm on Tuesday evening through 12 am on Wednesday morning. That means mod to heavy rain appears fairly likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening over our region.
The cold front advances eastward as we move through Tuesday night. This image represents the rainfall totals from 12 am on Wednesday morning through 6 am on Wednesday morning.
We might see most of the rain end by Wednesday morning IF this is correct. That is a BIG if on the timing.
This image is from 6 am on Wednesday morning through 12 pm on Wednesday afternoon. The rainfall during that time frame. Again, this is in MM and not inches. Rain should tape on Wednesday morning from west to east.
The system is on the way out by Wednesday late morning and afternoon. Assuming the GFS model guidance is correct. Some models are a bit slower and some a bit faster.
Bottom line:
Rain is coming! And, perhaps quite a bit of it. Widespread 1-2″ for the region with pockets of greater than 3″ likely for some of our local counties.
Updated probabilities for rain. Otherwise, small changes to temperatures and wind.
Concerned about heavy rain on Monday through Wednesday. Perhaps the heaviest totals on Tuesday and Wednesday. I can’t rule out some flooding. The prolonged rain event should be spread out enough to prevent significant flash flooding. However, some of the models are showing excessive rainfall amounts. If training occurs (storms or heavy rain moving over the same areas repeatedly) then I can’t rule out some flood warnings.
Clean out those leaves from gutters and street drainage areas. A lot of rain is headed our way. Could cause some ponding of water on roadways.
The wild card for the coming week is an easy one to pick. How much rain will fall and where will the heaviest numbers be placed.
Expect 1-2″ over the entire region. But, some places could pick up 3-5″. Let’s monitor this one!
Frost/Freeze Sunday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Click map for a larger view. Graphic is from weatherbell.com
This graphic is produced by NOAA and has been changing daily. More changes likely.
NOAA went hog wild with their totals. Whether everyone sees this much rain or not is up for discussion. Bottom line is that we should see quite a bit of rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO Sunday. A rumple of thunder possible Monday night/Tuesday.
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
