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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s.
Winds: Winds become westerly at 10-25 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% before 12 am.
Coverage of precipitation? A period of widespread showers and storms along a cold front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening activities may have to deal with rain and some storms.
Is severe weather expected? Severe risk is small.
What impact is expected? Possibly some evening thunderstorms. Lightning and heavy downpours. Gusty winds.
Thursday – Partly sunny and cooler. Breezy at times. More clouds over our northern counties vs southern. Clouds wrapping around the low pressure center to our north.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds: West winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Friday – Mostly sunny. Chilly morning.
Temperatures: Highs from 52 to 56
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Clear and cold. Frost/freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A frost/freeze is possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Clear and cold. Frost possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible
Sunday – Partly sunny. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, perhaps
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways
Monday – Cloudy. Rain showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday night – Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Tuesday – Cloudy. Rain showers possible. Thunder possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 60s.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (perhaps higher). Still some time to monitor this.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is a possibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather returns for Thursday!
2. Cool few days ahead. Frost and freeze possible Friday and Saturday morning.
3. Calm weekend anticipated
4. Perhaps some rain chances next week. One or two systems to monitor.
Well, after our windy and showery Wednesday, I am ready for some calm weather. And, calm weather we shall have (at least for a few days).
Expect nice weather Thursday through Sunday. Yes, a bit cool at times. But, we are nearing the middle November. By the way, how did we manage to end up in the middle of November. Is it just me or are the clocks speeding up? 🙂 Maybe it is just me.
I don’t have any dramatic weather to speak of for the coming days. Just nice fall weather.
We may have a frost or freeze on Friday and Saturday mornings. Widespread lower to middle 30s. And, like earlier this week, some locations may dip into the 20s.
Our next rain maker should hold off until next week. I am monitoring.
No snow in the forecast. Sorry snow fans.
Let’s look at the next system on the model maps.
I wanted to show you PWAT values for Monday afternoon. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the whole atmosphere. Meteorologists like to look at PWAT values when discussing moderate to heavy rain. See how the colors spread northward from the Gulf of Mexico? Nice moisture pull into our region. Fairly high PWAT values. This could mean some moderate to heavy downpours Monday and Tuesday. Let’s keep an eye on it. Perhaps even into Wednesday if some of the model guidance is correct.
Looking at the surface maps.
This first one is for Monday evening. The green represent rain showers and maybe some thunder. Low pressure is located north of Minnesota. Another low in the Oklahoma Panhandle.
This next map is for Wednesday morning. Rain may continue off and on Monday into Wednesday. Still some time to monitor this setup.
No major changes in this update.
No concerns Thursday or Friday. Rest for the weatherman.
No.
Calm weather for a few days. No wild card in this forecast!
Frost/Freeze possible on Friday or Saturday morning
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain is in the forecast Thursday through Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO on Thursday-Sunday.
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
