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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Small chance for an evening storm over our northeast and eastern counties. That would be northwest Kentucky towards Hopkinsville. A few other isolated storms possible elsewhere. Very isolated. Gusty winds overnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 10-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds and hail.
What impact is expected? Early in the evening thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, hail, and lightning.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 64-68 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Quite a few clouds with a 10% chance for a shower. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None. If a shower develops then wet roadways.
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 58 to 64 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Friday – Mostly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 55-60 degrees.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None. If a shower develops then wet roadways.
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Cool. A 30% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Saturday Night – Quite a few clouds. A 20% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None. If a shower develops then wet roadways.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 50-55 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
These numbers are off by one hour starting Sunday. I have submitted a ticket to fix them.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Tuesday evening thunderstorm chances (far northeastern counties)
- Cooler Wednesday into the weekend
- A few light shower chances
There could be a few thunderstorms on Tuesday evening over our far northeastern counties and eastern counties. If storms do occur they could be strong with gusty winds and hail. Otherwise, calm weather is anticipated tonight into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday. Temperatures will still be above normal. Expect highs into the 60s. Not too bad for the middle of March. We start to stair step into cooler weather on Wednesday into the weekend.
A weak weather system on Wednesday night will deliver some clouds and maybe a stray shower. Another system on Friday night into the weekend could bring a few more showers.
High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows could dip into the upper 30s.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday:
A small chance for a strong thunderstorm on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This would mostly be from Mt Vernon, Illinois towards northwest Kentucky. If storms do form then they could produce high winds and hail. The overall risk is small. There is a warm layer aloft (this is called a CAP) that should help prevent much in the way of activity for our region. I will keep an eye on it. Officially the Storm Prediction Center does have us in a risk zone.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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There is a small risk for a strong thunderstorm over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky on Tuesday afternoon and night. If a storm does form then it could be intense. Otherwise, no major problems anticipated.
Unlikely. Tuesday afternoon and evening may deliver a few thunderstorms to our far northeastern counties.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Any Tuesday evening thunderstorms will come to an end.
We do have some on and off light shower chances into the weekend. Rainfall totals would be small.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
