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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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The rest of this afternoon
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be severe with high winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds and heavy downpours in storms. Small hail possible, as well.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat index values could rise above 105 degrees.
Winds: West/southwest to variable winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Stronger near storms, as always.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk for damaging winds and hail. Down bursts are the main concern. Down bursts are concentrated areas of wind damage. Normally only a few blocks long.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. A cold front will return to the region on Thursday. Some storms are likely to occur.
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Then, partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms possible (mainly before 10 p.m.)
What impact is expected? Lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds. Isolated severe thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph. Gusty early in the evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% before 10 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be intense early in the evening. Isolated severe weather risk. Main concern would be damaging winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some storms are possible, especially during the evening hours.
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. An isolated thunderstorm possible. A little bit cooler, but still hot.
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Otherwise, high heat index values. Use care, as always.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88 to 95 degree range. Heat index values may top 98 degrees
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds perhaps mostly northerly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but a few storms could be strong (if they develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case a storm or two pops up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm again possible.
What impact is expected? If storms linger then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northerly at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable/northeast and east.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 10 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check radar early in the evening.
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. A few scattered thunderstorms may dot radar, but many areas will remain dry.
What impact is expected? High heat index values. Use care. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-98 degree range. Heat index values above 104 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming south and southwest at 6-12 mph during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk. Although, if storms were to form they could be strong with gusty winds and even small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case showers/storms pop up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Clearing. Very warm. Humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 9 p.m. and 10% after 9 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. An isolated thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? High heat index values. Use care. If a storm forms then lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-100 degree range. Heat index values at 105 or above.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming more southwesterly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. But, if storms do form the could be strong.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but occasionally glance at radar. Maybe an isolated thunderstorm will pop up during the heat of the day.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. A few clouds from time to time. Warm and humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm forms then wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Perhaps not as hot as Sunday.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range with higher heat index values.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming north/northwest during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some storms are possible along a cold front on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High to very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m. Last Quarter.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest/north/northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-92 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Low confidence on the Wednesday into Friday forecast. With northwest flow you often times will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the disturbances appear weak. Thus, low confidence on whether we have storms during this time period.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Less humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:11 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Thursday Night – A few clouds. Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A thunderstorm again possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Good news in the long range forecast
- Daily isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (summer).
- Hot temperatures and high heat index values.
Well, a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms occurred on Wednesday night across parts of Illinois and Indiana. Maybe you saw it on the news. Some places had winds over 100 mph. Those were not tornado winds. Those were straight line winds. Considerable damage in Indiana. More than twenty tornadoes were reported. Many of the tornadoes were in Illinois. The forecast was for the severe storms to remain to our north and northeast. And, that is what happened. Good for us. Bad for them.
The weather over the coming days will be dominated by hot and humid conditions. A cold front or stationary front will be situated over the area on Thursday afternoon and night. The front is weak and may even wash out over the area on Friday. Wash out means to weaken beyond recognition.
But, what the front will do for us, is lay out some boundaries. Areas of wind shift lines. Convergence. And, with some weak upper level impulses moving over the area, we could have occasionally thunderstorm chances right on into at least Monday.
It is questionable how much of the region actually picks up measurable rainfall. Typically, in this type of pattern, many areas would remain dry. And, a few spots would pick up very heavy rain. This is typical for our summer months. Hit and miss heavy storms. Feast or famine.
Wind fields, over the next few days, will be weak. Winds aloft, that is. And, that means that any storms that form would be slow moving. It would not surprise me if a few spots picked up one to three inches of rain. Much like the last few weeks. But, that would be the exception to the rule.
A few storms, in this type of environment, could produce down burst winds. Down burst winds can reach speeds of 50-70 mph. Isolated areas. Typically a down burst event impacts a few blocks of real estate. Very hard to warn on these type of storms. The wind damage threat would be over by the time a warning was issued. This happened near Dexter, Kentucky a few days ago. Winds of 50-60 MPH brought down trees and damaged some porch furniture. Residents reported trees bending considerably in the wind. No warning was issued on that storm. Again, typical short lived damaging wind event.
Here are some illustrations of down burst winds. Cumulus clouds develop during the summer heat. They rise and rise into the atmosphere. They can become thunderstorms. All of that air rising must also eventually come back down. Sometimes, when conditions are just right, you can have a down burst of very high winds.
Temperatures on Friday into Monday are forecast to reach into the 90’s. Heat index values above 100 degrees. The only caveat to the forecast would be if clouds or thunderstorms help lower temperatures by several degrees. But, if we have mostly sunny sky conditions then it will be hot. UV index numbers from 9-11 will also be common. Sun burn weather.
A cold front will push into the region on Monday. This may help focus thunderstorms just a bit more. And, the GREAT news is that northwest flow may develop next Monday night into Friday. If this happens then dew points will be lower. It will feel less humid. And, we can shave several degrees off the thermometer. This would certainly be welcome news for area residents. I am cautiously optimistic that this will happen.
Northwest flow is normally semi-active to active, as well. Typically MCS’s form in northwest flow. An MCS is a large thunderstorm complex that moves in from the northwest and north. Now, not everyone in northwest flow will receive an MCS. You have to be positioned in just the right spot, along the boundary, between the heat ridge and the northwest flow. It is threading a needle. Some data takes most of the MCS’s to our west and northwest. More like Kansas and western Missouri vs our region. But, with that said, we are still in the running for some precipitation next week. If we are lucky, we will be positioned under a few of them. That would mean much needed rainfall.
The models have been trending stronger with the trough next week. Another positive sign for us. The deeper blue means trending stronger. A trough is when the jet stream dips down into our region from the northwest. A ridge is when the jet goes up and over our region.
Our region remains out of drought conditions, for now. If we continue to remain dry over the coming weeks then we will enter drought. This has been a concern all summer. And, will continue to be a concern. We have been flirting with the intense heat ridge to our west and the northwest flow.
When the heat ridge wins we experience temperatures in the 90’s and heat index values above 100 degrees. When the northwest flow wins we experience temperatures a bit cooler. And, we experience better rain chances. It is possible we continue to float between the two all summer. If the heat ridge starts to nudge into our region during July and August then expect temperatures into the 100’s.
Let me show you a few updated maps.
This is the latest NOAA drought monitor maps. The yellow areas represent abnormally dry conditions and/or drought.
This first map is for the Missouri and Ohio Valley region. This does NOT include rain that fell on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Keep that in mind. Bright yellow is abnormally dry, but not drought. The darker yellow (see over southeast Iowa) is a level one drought. Level one is considered moderate drought. Let’s continue to monitor these maps over the coming weeks.
Click image for a larger view.
This next map is centered on Tennessee. Parts of southeast Tennessee are now in severe drought (the orange area). Much of Tennessee is abnormally dry or in level one drought.
Let me show you some encouraging maps on temperatures. These first two maps are from CIPS. CIPS guidance takes a look at years past and gives us an idea what will happen over the coming weeks. This is called analog forecasting. In other words, the models look at similar conditions from past years and issues a forecast.
The blue means probabilities favor below normal temperatures. The deeper the blue the more confident the guidance.
This first map covers most of next week. We are solidly in the blue. Probabilities favor us dropping below normal in the temperature department. Perhaps by Tuesday into Friday.
This next map takes us into the first week of July. Again, we are in blue. Good news? Hopefully.
Unfortunately, during the same time period, the analog forecasting method shows the better rain chances to our west. There is still time for this to change. But, keep this in mind. Areas to our north favor dry weather. We are caught in the middle of the probabilities. That means we have an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall. This first map is for most of next week.
And, here is the map for the first few days of July. Perhaps better rain chances after the Fourth of July. Long way off. We are nearing the below normal probabilities on this map.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night into Monday: Scattered thunderstorms from time to time. Not everyone will pick up measurable rain. And, some spots could pick up one to three inches. Summer storms. A few storms could produce frequent lightning, high winds, and small hail. Torrential downpours in slow moving storms. Small flash flood risk at any given spot. Keep in mind, storms during the summer can produce extremely heavy rain in short periods of time. Thus, isolated flash flooding is always a possibility.
Isolated severe thunderstorm warnings are possible in this environment. Severe storms would likely be short lived. And, the main concern would probably be down burst winds.
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No wild swings in today’s update. I continue to update high temperatures for each day. And, rain chances. Low confidence on the daily rain chances. It is that time of the year. Not overly organized systems (for the most part).
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A couple of concerns over the coming seven to ten days.
- The heat. Heat index values, when thunderstorms and clouds are not present, will range from 95-105 degrees.
- Isolated storms on Friday into Sunday. Most will remain dry. A few storms could produce strong winds, nickel size hail, and frequent lightning, Heavy rain totals in isolated spots could top 1-3″.
- A cold front will deliver additional rain chances on Monday. And, FINALLY we move into northwest flow next week. If true then at least some storm chances possible next week, as well. Hoping the main storm track is not to our west.
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Yes. Hot conditions will require a little extra attention for our outdoor friends. Pet’s water bowls can become quite hot. Consider changing the water a couple of times each day. I am sure your pet will appreciate that!
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday into Sunday will mean a lightning threat. Outdoor events might want to monitor lightning data (see links further up on this page).
A few storms, over the coming days, could produce down burst winds. Typical for the Month of June. And, torrential downpours, as well.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
