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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Perhaps a little better chance over northwest Kentucky.
What impact is expected? If any storms occur then they would produce lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Wet roadways. Small risk for damaging winds. Low confidence on storms occurring Wednesday evening and night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range. WARM!
Winds: Winds southwest at 7-14 mph. Gusting to 20 mph. Winds becoming variable after midnight with speeds of 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no. But, monitor updated forecasts.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radar from time to time.
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Scattered thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds and heavy downpours in storms. Small hail possible, as well.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat index values could rise above 105 degrees.
Winds: West/southwest to variable winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph. Stronger near storms, as always.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk for damaging winds and hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. A cold front will return to the region on Thursday. Some storms are likely to occur.
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Then, partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible (mainly before 10 p.m.)
What impact is expected? Lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% before 10 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be intense early in the evening. Isolated severe weather risk. Main concern would be damaging winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some storms are possible, especially during the evening hours.
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Otherwise, high heat index values. Use care, as always.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90 to 96 degree range. Heat index values may top 102 degrees
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but a few storms could be strong (if they develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case a storm or two pops up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm again possible.
What impact is expected? If storms linger then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming northeast and east.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check radar early in the evening.
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Hot. Low confidence on Saturday’s forecast. Maybe a few storms. Some guidance shows better chances for storms than other guidance.
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-98 degree range. Heat index values above 104 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming southeast and south at 6-12 mph during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (this could change)
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered. But, low confidence on this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Although, if storms were to form they could be strong with gusty winds and even small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case showers/storms pop up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Clearing. Very warm. Humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 9 p.m. and 10% after 9 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 95-100 degree range. Heat index values at 105 or above.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming more southwesterly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. But, if storms do form the could be strong.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but occasionally glance at radar. Maybe an isolated thunderstorm will pop up during the heat of the day.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. A few clouds from time to time. Warm and humid. A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm forms then wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range with higher heat index values.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming northwest during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some storms are possible along a cold front on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High to very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m. Last Quarter.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Low confidence on the Wednesday into Friday forecast. With northwest flow you often times will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the disturbances appear weak. Thus, low confidence on whether we have storms during this time period.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Less humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:11 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Less humid. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Unsettled, hot, and humid. Same song and dance.
- Heat wave
- Rainfall totals will vary greatly
- A cooling trend next week?
First, I want to make a comment concerning some recent questions.
Some of you have been asking me where the rain is. The rain that has been in the forecast. Without exception, every forecast over the past few weeks has verified. Keep in mind that this is summer. Feast or famine. What? Feast or famine means that some places hit the rain jackpot. Other places are bone dry. It is difficult to have widespread rain during the summer months. It can happen. Normally during northwest flow events. Those are large MCS’s. Large thunderstorm complexes that can cover thousands of miles. Or, a tropical system. Otherwise, storms are hit and miss. Some places pick up a months worth of rain in less than two hours. Meanwhile, one county over, it is dry as a bone.
That is summer. Always has and always will be that way. Well, at least as long as all of us are living.
So, when I forecast thunderstorms you have to dig a little deeper into the daily forecast. Top of the page. Daily forecast. Notice I give you several different ways to view the forecast. The actual text forecast. The probability (%) chance for rainfall. Then, I tell you if rain should be isolated, scattered, numerous, or widespread. I tell you the impact of the storms. I tell you whether outside events should be canceled or monitor updates. Don’t just read that storms are possible. Go deeper.
Nature of the beast during the summer months is that some places will have plenty of rain. Others will not.
I posted a bunch of soil moisture maps on Tuesday’s update. See yesterdays update for those maps. And, don’t forget to bookmark the digital blog site. I update this page every single day.
Also, remember that all of this data costs me money. If you would like to help cover the costs then consider subscribing (for $3 a month) to the texting service. Even if you don’t use the texts. Your dollars will go towards the costs of me forecasting the weather. I don’t work for a television or radio station. I work for you.
Now, back to the weather!
The main weather concern, over the coming days, will be the heat and heat index numbers. For Thursday into Sunday you can expect temperatures into the 90’s. Dew points will be high. That means it will feel uncomfortable outside. Actual air temperatures from 92 to 98 degrees. Heat index values will likely range from 96 to 105 degrees. Isolated higher numbers possible.
A cold front will approach our region on Thursday. This will be the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Questionable on how widespread rain will be. But, at least a few scattered storms are likely to occur on Thursday. And, where storms occur, they could be intense. A few reports of down burst winds are again possible (much like Tuesday). Small hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours, as well. Some spots could pick up 1-3″ of rain. Other areas will remain bone dry.
It is important to remember, during the summer months, not everyone will receive rain with each cold front. Not unless an MCS forms (large thunderstorm clusters) or a tropical system is involved. Summer months produce spotty heavy thunderstorms. Many of you need rain. Some of you do not need rain. Parts of the region, since June 1st, have received almost no measurable rainfall. Other areas have received over four inches of rain. Feast or famine. Typical for summer.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Most areas will remain dry. Some areas will receive a quick inch of rain (possibly more). But, the general rule will be dry weather.
Another cold front will enter the region on Monday. This will produce additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Locally heavy storms, as well.
The next big weather question becomes Tuesday into next Thursday/Friday. Will a trough of low pressure develop? Or, will the heat ridge remain. A trough is when the jet stream dives down into our region. We end up with northwest winds. And, typically that means a bit cooler and less humid conditions. When the heat ridge wins out you can expect temperatures rising into the 90’s and heat index values above 100 degrees. Also, high dew points/humidity. Air you wear.
It does appear that our pattern will trend towards a trough next week. How strong and how long the trough will last is questionable. But, I do believe we shave a few degrees off the thermometer next week. And, perhaps lower dew points (it won’t feel as humid).
Let me show you the ridge and trough on the 500 mb height maps. A ridge is when heat develops in our area. A trough delivers cooler weather. We have recently been under the influence of the heat ridge. Occasionally a trough. The long range shows more trough than ridge. We can hope.
The 500 mb for this Saturday. See the ridge?
Then, looking towards the middle and end of next week. A trough! Let’s cheer for the trough. That would equal better rain chances, perhaps, as well.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: An isolated storm is possible over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Most will remain dry.
A level one risk for Wednesday night and again on Thursday. Monitor updates. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds. Frequent lightning, as well. Isolated severe weather risk.
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Made adjustments to temperatures in the long range. Otherwise, no significant changes.
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A couple of concerns over the coming seven to ten days.
- The heat. Heat index values, when thunderstorms and clouds are not present, will range from 95-105 degrees.
- Locally heavy thunderstorms will be in the forecast for Thursday. Isolated storms on Friday into Sunday. Most will remain dry. A few storms could produce strong winds, nickel size hail, and frequent lightning, Heavy rain totals in isolated spots could top 1-3″.
- A cold front will deliver additional rain chances on Monday.
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The next seven to ten days will deliver plenty of hot and humid days. That means to refresh the water bowls for our outdoor friends. Keep in mind that children, elderly people, and pets can quickly overheat in parked vehicles. It is common for temperatures to exceed 150 degrees inside an enclosed vehicle. Dangerous levels, obviously. Use common sense, as always.
On and off thunderstorm chances into the weekend. Scattered. Thus, having an umbrella handy is a good idea. Lightning will be the main concern for those of you outdoors. Gusty winds in a few storms, as well.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Same song and dance from the last few weeks. Some locations will pick up very heavy rain. Some areas will remain bone dry. This is the nature of the beast during the summer months. Feast or famine.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
