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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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The rest of this afternoon
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. An isolated thunderstorm possible. A little bit cooler, but still quite warm. Best rain chances will be over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Otherwise, high heat index values. Use care, as always.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88 to 93 degree range. Heat index values may top 96 degrees
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds perhaps mostly northerly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated (more coverage over southeast Missouri vs everywhere else)
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but a few storms could be strong (if they develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case a storm or two pops up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – A few clouds. Maybe a shower or thunderstorms over far southeast Missouri/Missouri Bootheel.
What impact is expected? If storms linger then lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northerly at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable/northeast and east.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 10 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check radar early in the evening.
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Hot. More humid. A few scattered thunderstorms may dot radar, but many areas will remain dry.
What impact is expected? High heat index values. Use care. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-98 degree range. Heat index values above 104 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming south, southeast and southwest at 6-12 mph during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk. Although, if storms were to form they could be strong with gusty winds and even small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case showers/storms pop up.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Clearing. Very warm. Humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before 9 p.m. and 10% after 9 p.m.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. A thunderstorms possible. Increasing clouds more likely late in the day. A cold front may approach the region Sunday night. And, if the front arrives earlier then storm chances might need to be increased after 3 p.m. (especially over our northern counties).
What impact is expected? High heat index values. Use care. If a storm forms then lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94–98 degree range. Heat index values at 105 or above.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming more southwesterly and then eventually may become west/northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (this number might need to be higher late in the day. That would depend on the speed of the front)
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered. Especially northern counties.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. But, if storms do form the could be strong.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but occasionally glance at radar. Maybe an isolated thunderstorm will pop up during the heat of the day.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Sunday Night – A few clouds from time to time. Warm and humid. A few scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered. Some question as to how fast the cold front moves into the region.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
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Monday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms likely. Perhaps not as hot as Sunday.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range with higher heat index values. If we have more clouds then that could shave a few degrees off the thermometer.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming north/northeast during the afternoon or evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous as a cold front nears the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Isolated severe weather is possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some storms are possible along a cold front on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High to very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m. Last Quarter.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest/north/northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range. If the front is slower than anticipated then it could be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Low confidence on the Wednesday into Friday forecast. With northwest flow you often times will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the disturbances appear weak. Thus, low confidence on whether we have storms during this time period.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:11 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Mild. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the west/northwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 7-14 mph. Winds becoming east/northeast.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. We might have some rain on Thursday or Thursday night.
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Thursday Night – A few clouds. Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A thunderstorm again possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet raodways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph. Winds turning out of the south.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southerly at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A solid cool down next week! Finally. I cut temperatures a bit more on this update.
- Scattered storms possible Saturday and Sunday
- Cold front arrives on Sunday night and Monday. Some rain possible.
- Organic forecasting shows a major heat wave possible around July 16th through the 22nd.
Temperatures and humidity levels on Friday were a bit nicer than recent days. That is because a cold front moved into the region on Thursday night and Friday morning. This front is responsible for lowering dew points. Lower dew points equal a nicer air mass. We could use a long break. And a break is coming.
We have a couple of more hot and humid days ahead of us. Both Saturday and Sunday will be hot. High temperatures from 92 to 98 degrees. Heat index values from 98 to 105 degrees. Dew points will return to the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.
A weak upper level wave will move over the region on Saturday. This could spark some scattered thunderstorms. Perhaps the highest chances along the Mississippi River. IF storms form then they could be intense. Much like the past few weeks. Hit and miss. Heavy downpours and gusty winds.
A cold front will approach our region on Sunday night and Monday morning. The speed of the front is questionable. Some guidance wants to bring the front into the region by Sunday evening. Other data holds the front off until Monday. This will make a big difference in the sensible forecast. If the front does approach our region, on Sunday evening, then storm chances will need to be raised. Right now I have the storm chances around 30%. But, if the front speeds up then this will need to be increased into the 40%-50% range. Monitor updates.
Either way, a cold front moves through the region by Monday afternoon and night. Any storms that form along the front could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Torrential downpours, as well. Again, much like the last few weeks. Some places will pick up no rain at all. Other locations will pick up a quick 1-3″.
Speaking of rain. Parts of the region received 1″-2.5″ of rain on Thursday and Thursday night. But, many of you remain dry. We need rain. And, if we do not receive a general rainfall before our next heat wave then we are in trouble. We will slide into abnormally dry or drought conditions. I am concerned about this. Right now we are approaching abnormally dry conditions.
Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from Thursday and Thursday night. Click image for a larger view. Scale is on the left.
We do have another decent chance of rain on Thursday. That could be the best chance for a general rainfall. It might not be enough. But, we will take whatever we can get.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July it appears that another storm system may approach the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. But, still a bit early to know whether rain will be in the forecast. I suspect at least some rain chances from the 4th through the 8th. But, not sure on coverage. Too far out for certainties.
Using the Bering Sea rule it appears that another major heat wave is possible around July 10th through the 16th. Temperatures well into the 90’s and perhaps 100’s. High dew points, as well. This is why we need rain and need rain soon.
I have concerns about the end of July into August. Many signals point towards above normal temperatures. That would not help our cause. Drought continues to be a concern.
I tell you every year that tropical activity is always a wild card. Tropical systems can deliver widespread rain. And, many years this is how we break dry spells. No signals for a tropical system, yet. But, is something I always monitor in July and August.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night into Monday: Scattered thunderstorms from time to time. Not everyone will pick up measurable rain. And, some spots could pick up one to three inches. Summer storms. A few storms could produce frequent lightning, high winds, and small hail. Torrential downpours in slow moving storms. Small flash flood risk at any given spot. Keep in mind, storms during the summer can produce extremely heavy rain in short periods of time. Thus, isolated flash flooding is always a possibility.
Isolated severe thunderstorm warnings are possible in this environment. Severe storms would likely be short lived. And, the main concern would probably be down burst winds.
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Updated temperatures and rain chances. Otherwise, no major shifts in the forecast. The cool down should arrive by Monday night and Tuesday
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A couple of concerns over the coming seven to ten days.
- The heat. Heat index values, when thunderstorms and clouds are not present, will range from 95-105 degrees.
- A scattered storm on both Saturday and Sunday. Most will remain dry. A few storms could produce strong winds, pea to dime size hail, and frequent lightning, Heavy rain totals in isolated spots could top 1-3″.
- A cold front will deliver additional rain chances on Monday. And, FINALLY we move into northwest flow next week. If true then at least some storm chances possible next week, as well. Hoping the main storm track is not to our west.
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Yes. Hot conditions on Saturday and Sunday. Don’t forget our outdoor pets. Freshen those water bowls a couple of times each day. Heat index values above 100 on both Saturday and Sunday. UV index of 9-11. Sun screen weather.
Isolated to scattered storms possible on Saturday and Sunday. Storms that form could produce cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and pea to dime size hail. An isolated down burst possible. Down bursts are winds that develop from collapsing thunderstorms. They can gust over 50 mph.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
