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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Nice evening. Nice camping weather. Mild. Patchy late night fog.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some patchy fog late tonight and on Saturday morning with reduced visibility.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Patchy morning fog possible. Becoming mostly sunny. Just a few spotty clouds possible. Not as humid. Still quite warm. Pleasant day, overall. Hope you can enjoy it!A slight chance for a popup afternoon storm. Mainly over western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Isolated lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Very isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Otherwise, clear. A one in ten chance for a thundershower at any given location. Small chance. But, a few may dot radar.
What impact is expected? Lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming east and southeast late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Very isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A bit more humid. But, not as extreme as a few days ago. Nice day to be at the lake or river. Nice camping weather. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Heat index values from 90-96 degrees. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming south
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? An isolated shower or storm is possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. A chance for a couple of thunderstorms in the region.
What impact is expected? Heat index values will be 95-100 degrees. Lightning and wet roadways possible in isolated areas.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A bit more humid, as well. Thunderstorms becoming increasingly possible after midnight. A few isolated storms possible before midnight. Locally heavy downpours where storms occur.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before midnight. And, 50%-60% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming scattered with increasing coverage potential late at night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. Thunderstorms possible. A cold front approaches from the north on Tuesday or Wednesday. Some storms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds will be possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few storms could be intense.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Storms are possible.
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. More humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Some storms could, however, be intense.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible.
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Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Thunderstorms again possible. A cold front will be near our region on Wednesday.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no. But, monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a few storms are possible.
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated to scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms occur.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Low confidence in the forecast from Thursday onward.
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Low confidence on storms Friday into the weekend.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Nice weekend ahead
- Another cold front possible around Tuesday/Wednesday
- Heat wave next week?
A nice weekend is anticipated. Expect temperatures in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Humidity levels won’t be as bad this weekend (compared with the past week). Campers should love this forecast.
Some of the guidance is showing a 10% chance for a thunderstorm on Sunday. But, believe most areas will remain dry.
It has been a warm June, thus far. Let’s take a look at that temperature anomaly map. This map shows you the above or below normal areas.
This first map is for the last seven days. Images from weatherbell.com
And, here is the month to date map. Above normal has been the rule.
Dew points will be on the rise by Monday and Tuesday of the new work week. That means it will start to feel uncomfortable. A weak cold front may skirt the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. That could set off a few showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it does not look to be a widespread thunderstorm event. But, we still have several days to monitor the trends. One always has to watch thunderstorms during the Month of June. They can produce a lot of rain in a short amount of time.
Our region will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure early next week. That would mean hot and humid conditions on Monday. You can see that ridge of high pressure on this map. This is the 500 mb height map.
Some guidance is showing another strong heat signal next Thursday into next weekend. Still a bit early to bite on the numbers being spit out by the guidance. There is also disagreement among the major model guidance players. The EC vs the GFS models. The EC has done quite well over the past few weeks. It is the one showing another heat wave. I will monitor trends in the data.
The GFS is showing the complete opposite for Thursday into next Sunday. It is showing pleasant 70’s and 80’s for our region. The EC is showing 90’s and 100’s.
The difference is upstairs. These maps are the 500 mph maps. They are showing ridges and troughs. A ridge of high pressure, during the summer months, normally means hot weather. But, a trough would mean cooler weather. A trough would deliver northwest winds. That means cooler air. The GFS guidance has a nice trough over our region. That would mean nice temperatures and lower dew points. The EC guidance is showing a scorching heat wave.
The ensembles lend themselves to the GFS verifying. Meaning, the EC would be the odd man out. But, the EC has done very well over the last few weeks. And, it has done well on forecasting the heat. I will monitor trends over the coming days.
Here is the GFS for late next week. Notice our wind is out of the northwest. A northwest flow. That would mean a nice air mass for our region. You can see the heat ridge well to our west.
Now, compare that to the EC. The EC model is showing a heat ridge of our region. Thus, hot and humid. Not pleasant.
Let me show you two more maps. These are also 500 mb maps. But, these maps will show you where there are some disturbances in the atmosphere.
This first map is for Saturday. Notice that will are in the ridge area. Northwest part of it. Not in the extreme heat and humidity of the past week. This is the GFS map from wright-weather.com
The heat ridge is the big BLUE H over the southwest United States. That is the core of the heat. It could reach 110-120 degrees out there! Glad it is there and not here. You can see a disturbance over the northwest United States. That is the big red L.
Let’s move ahead to Wednesday. See the change? A trough over our region digging in from the northwest. That could mean some showers and thunderstorms as ripples of low pressure move in from the northwest. A cold front will be near our region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
You can see the low has moved into eastern Canada (the big red L). And, the heat ridge is well to our southwest. If we can move into a northwest flow pattern then temperatures will be milder vs hotter. The EC model shows us in heat during this same time frame. Battle of the models. GFS has more support than the EC. I took a middle of the ground approach with my detailed forecast at the top of the page.
For now, let’s enjoy this amazing weekend!
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday-Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday-Thursday: Thunderstorms again possible.
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Updated temperatures for next week. Updated thunderstorm chances for next week. Small shifts.
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The main concern over the coming days will be warm/hot weather. Expect upper 80’s to lower 90’s for Friday into the weekend.
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You will want to drink plenty of fluids. Hot weather could cause problems for those working outside.
Make sure the outdoor pets have plenty of water.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
