We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
.
Thursday Night – Evening strong thunderstorms possible. Mostly clear and warm. A little less humid, as well. Overall, a nice night.
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning, and small hail (if storms do form)
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Possible strong storms in the evening
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Friday – Morning storms ending. Then, plenty of sun. Very warm. Less humid. A nice day, overall. Good camping weather this weekend.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may shift more out of the northeast as the day wears on.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Nice evening. Nice camping weather. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Just a few spotty clouds possible. Not as humid. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming south
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Mild evening.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A bit more humid.
What impact is expected? Heat index values will be 94-98.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. A bit more humid, as well.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. More humid. An isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Mostly likely none. If a storm does form then lightning and brief heavy downpours. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe isolated, if any
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. More humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning would be the main concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Maybe isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. An isolated to scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no. But, monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated to scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: No
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm weekend ahead of us
- Decent camping weather Friday-Sunday
- Cold front arrives around next Tuesday into Thursday. More storms?
We had some gusty storms over the last few days. And, some very heavy rain. Some spots picked up more than four inches of rain since Monday. Other areas have not received hardly any rain. Feast or famine. That is what I call summer thunderstorms. I even had some people tell me they could see the rain across their fields and not a drop where they were standing. Isn’t weather amazing.
We have a cold front moving through the area on Thursday night. A few storms should pop along the front. Any storms that form could be intense with heavy downpours and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
The good news is that calmer weather will prevail from Friday into Monday. It will be warm, but not as hot as recent days. And, dew points will be slightly lower on Friday into Sunday. Lower dew points will mean less of a muggy feeling to the air. Still, with recent rains and with hot temperatures it could be uncomfortable for some.
High temperatures on Friday into Monday will mostly be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.
Dew points will be on the rise by Monday. That means it will start to feel muggy again.
A cold front approaches the region on Tuesday into Thursday. This front could spark additional shower and heavy thunderstorms. Some of the storms next week could produce very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong winds. We will need to monitor for the potential of severe weather. About the same as the past few days. When you have heat and high dew points you can have strong thunderstorms.
But, for the time being, let’s enjoy the weekend weather.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Thursday night: Isolated storms possible. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds would be the main concern.
Friday-Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday-Thursday: Thunderstorms again possible. A few storms could be heavy.
.
.
No major changes.
.
.
The main concern over the coming days will be warm/hot weather. Expect upper 80’s to lower 90’s for Friday into the weekend.
.
.
You will want to drink plenty of fluids. Hot weather could cause problems for those working outside.
Make sure the outdoor pets have plenty of water.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
