We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
.
THANK YOU FOR ALL THE STORM REPORTS AND DAMAGE PHOTOS. Very helpful! Thanks.
A front may stall over the region on Friday into Sunday. Where it stalls is key to what happens next. If the front stalls over our region then heavy rain will be possible. Mostly over parts of southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Closely monitor updates.
.
The rest of this afternoon
Friday – Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Some storms likely. A few storms could produce damaging winds. Heavy rain, as well.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms form. High winds possible with storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible. Heat index above 100 degrees if we have plenty of sun.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be severe
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high. This will be dependent on cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible. Mainly over southern Missouri into Kentucky. Southern half of the region has a better chance overnight. Smaller chance north.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms form. Strong winds in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense or severe
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Not as hot. A little less humid. A small chance for a shower or storm over our southern counties.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming north and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate. Perhaps high if we don’t have many clouds.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A stray storm possible.
What impact is expected? Likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered t
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 11:57 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
The probabilities for rain each day will vary. Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky. Don’t get too hung up on the % number. Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area. But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you. A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.
Monday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 12:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:11 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbons.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 2:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible in the evening.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds East at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Sunday – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- More storms
- Locally heavy rain is a concern
- Severe weather concerns?
Rain and more rain. Damaging storms moved through our region on Friday morning. Owensboro was hit the hardest. Some of the storms produced winds greater than 60 mph. Nickel size hail fell in Princeton, Kentucky.
Sara Howard took this photo in Owensboro. Uprooted tree.
The main concern over the coming days will be an incoming cold front. On Friday afternoon the front was situated to our north. It was moving southward. Over the weekend, the front will become stationary across southern Missouri into perhaps Kentucky. There remains some question about how far south the front will push. The further north the front the greater the risk for additional heavy rain in our local area. If the front were further south then we would remain mostly dry.
As it stands, it appears the front will stall out somewhere along the Missouri and Arkansas border. Then, the front will stretch eastward across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Upper level disturbances will move along the front. Each one could produce showers and thunderstorms. And, some of the storms could produce heavy rain and strong winds. There is a non-zero risk for severe weather on Saturday into Sunday. Meaning, a few storms could become severe. Damaging wind being the primary concern.
Timing each of the disturbances will be problematic. Some of these upper level vort maxes barely show up on the model guidance. And, the models have been just about worthless over the last few days. Thus, confidence on the timing of the precipitation is lower than usual.
I feel fairly confident that the greatest coverage of storms will be across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas into Kentucky and Tennessee. Place the higher probabilities there. But, keep in mind, thunderstorms are also possible to the north.
A stronger system may approach our region Saturday night into Sunday night. That could cause the front to pull northward a bit. And, this is something I will be monitoring.
The overall pattern could remain a bit unsettled as we push into the first part of next week. That means additional chances for precipitation.
The ground is super-saturated. Some locations have picked up 15″-25″ of rain since last Saturday. That is incredible. Likely record breaking rainfall totals. Needless to say, we do not need more rain. Flash flooding will be a concern. It won’t take much rain to cause creeks to rapidly rise. Ditches will overflow and spill over onto roadways. Avoid flooded roadways. Some roads were washed away over the past week. You don’t always know what is under that water. The road could be missing. Use caution.
Temperatures to the north of the front should be in the 80’s. You can expect upper 80’s to lower 90’s south of the front. With all of the moisture in the ground it will feel humid or muggy. North of the front the dew points might be a bit lower. That might help it feel a bit nicer outside. Especially if temperatures are in the lower or middle 80’s.
Here is the temperature map for Saturday morning at 7 am
Here is the temperature map for 4 pm Saturday afternoon
Here is the temperature map for 7 am Sunday morning
Here is the temperature map for 4 pm Sunday afternoon
PWAT values are going to range from 1.6 to 2.4″ over the coming days. Plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into. Thus, torrential downpours continue to be a concern. Some areas picked up 4-8″ of rain over the past weekend. They do not need additional heavy rain. This will need to be monitored.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Thursday night-Sunday: Several periods of strong thunderstorms are possible. Timing each system is tricky, at best. Monitor updates concerning the potential for heavy rain and other. FLash flooding is a continued concern. Damaging winds is a concern.
.
.
No major shifts in today’s forecast.
.
.
The main concern over the coming days will be additional rain. Many of us do not need more rain. I realize some spots still need a little precipitation. But, much of the region is soaked.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events this week. I also can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind being the primary concern.
.
.
Avoid flooded roadways. Monitor watches and warnings over the coming days.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. Perhaps monitor radars from time to time. And, monitor updates forecasts this week. Changeable weather is possible.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.
Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce locally heavy rain. It is July and there is no lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Where storms form they would produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals will vary considerably.
Where thunderstorms train you could quickly pick up 1-3″ of rain or more. Flash flooding is a concern.
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
