Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 10, 2016: At least somewhat of a break

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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THANK YOU FOR ALL THE STORM REPORTS AND DAMAGE PHOTOS.  Very helpful!  Thanks.

A front may stall over the region on Friday into Sunday.  Where it stalls is key to what happens next.  If the front stalls over our region then heavy rain will be possible.  Mostly over parts of southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.  Closely monitor updates.
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.  A few storms possible.  Especially over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
What impact is expected?  Likely none.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point?  30% (40-50% over southeast MO into NW Tennessee.  Mainly further west and south you travel)
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Sunday – Partly sunny.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.

What is the chance for precipitation at any given point?  40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered t
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 11:57 a.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point?  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars

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The probabilities for rain each day will vary.  Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky.  Don’t get too hung up on the % number.  Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area.  But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you.  A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.  

Monday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 12:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:11 a.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Monday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point?  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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Tuesday – Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m.  Waxing Gibbons.

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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Wednesday – Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 2:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m.  Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Perhaps.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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Thursday – Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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Friday – Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Friday Night – Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?    
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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Saturday – Partly sunny.  Warm and humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m.  Waxing Crescent.

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible in the evening.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds East  at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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Sunday – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Crescent.

Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1. Semi-calm?
  2.   Severe weather chances moving forward
  3.   Heavy rain chances moving forward

Yeesh, your weatherman can honestly say that he has never seen anything quite like this in July.  Some of you have now had over 27 inches of rain since last Saturday.  The heaviest totals are over western Kentucky.  Although, I have seen some areas approaching 20″ in Johnson County, Illinois, as well.

Incredible rain event.  Remember this map from a week ago?

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Now look at it today

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What a difference.  The dry spell is over.  Now the problem is too much rain.  Way too much rain.  Go figure.  Feast or famine.  That is what I always tell people in our region.  Hard to find middle ground.

The good news is that the large thunderstorm complexes, that we have been dealing with over the last few days, have shifted southward.  We will have some popup storms over the next 48 hours.  But, perhaps not the large events of recent week.  We need a break. Actually, we need a long break.  Not sure we will get that.

Unfortunately, there is still concern for heavy rain and damaging winds over the coming week.

The atmosphere is loaded with moisture.  And, it is July.  There is no lack of moisture in July.   Storms that do pop up could produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.  Isolated damage winds possible.  Keep that in mind.  But, the coverage should be much less than recent weeks.

There could be an uptick in coverage on Monday.  I am watching an incoming disturbance that might trigger more storms.

As far as the upcoming week goes, we could have more storms.  The overall pattern isn’t shifting all that much.  The placement, however, of the MCS’s will need to be monitored.  It is possible that the track will shift a bit northward.  But, no promises.  These MCS’s have a mind of their own.  So it seems.  And, predicting them more than 12-18 hours in advance is problematic.

I like to look at the 500 mb vort maps.  This shows us where disturbances are moving through the jet stream flow.  The yellow and red areas represent upper level disturbances.  Vort maxes/energy.  When they pass by they can spark showers and thunderstorms.  Let’s look at the GFS vort max forecast for the upcoming week.  You can see several will pass through or near our region.  The track of each one of these will be important for the forecast numbers.

This first one if for Tuesday.  You can see some energy passing to our north.  Might be close enough to spark some storms.

Click images to make them larger.

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This next one is for Wednesday.  Some weak vort maxes in the region.

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This next one is for this coming Thursday.  Another vort max in the area.  Click to enlarge the map.

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This next one is for next Friday.  Fairly large vort max moving through the region.  Click image for larger view.

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This next one is for next Saturday.  A stronger vort max showing up on the map.  Will need to watch this one, as well.  Stronger storms are more likely when the stronger vort maxes.

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I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts.  Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site.  That is the one used for non-severe days.

 

What are PWAT values?  Great question!  I found this blog post that explains it quite well.  Click here for more information on PWAT values.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Saturday night into Sunday:  A few thunderstorms could develop.  Storms that develop could produce isolated reports of high winds.  Heavy rain and lightning, as well.  Small chance for dime to nickel size hail.
Monday into Monday night:  A few strong storms are possible.  Maybe severe.  Monitor updates.
Tuesday into next Sunday:  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  I will need to fine tune the details.  I can’t rule out additional severe weather.  A bit odd for July.  To say the least.

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I updated everything.  Winds, temperatures, rain chances.
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A couple of storms could become severe over the next few days.  But, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Main concern will be a few pop up storms over the coming days.  Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.  Avoid flooded roadways.  Move indoors till lightning passes.  Common sense rules of summer.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We are in a bit of a lull from our recent active weather pattern.  Latest guidance is a bit more tame for the next few days.  But, with that said, some storms are likely to pop up in our region from time to time.

Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours.  It is July.  We have a summer air-mass over the region.  Thus, heavy rain is a concern.  Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour can occur in the most intense storms.  Many areas may remain dry Saturday night into Monday.  But, some spots will pick up downpours.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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