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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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THANK YOU FOR ALL THE STORM REPORTS AND DAMAGE PHOTOS. Very helpful! Thanks.
A front may stall over the region on Friday into Sunday. Where it stalls is key to what happens next. If the front stalls over our region then heavy rain will be possible. Mostly over parts of southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Closely monitor updates.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible. Strong winds in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Friday – Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Some storms likely. A few storms could produce damaging winds. Heavy rain, as well.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms form. High winds possible with storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible. Heat index above 100 degrees if we have plenty of sun.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be severe
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high. This will be dependent on cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible. Mainly over southern Missouri into Kentucky. Southern half of the region has a better chance overnight. Smaller chance north.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms form. Strong winds in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense or severe
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Saturday – Some clouds. Warm. Humid. Scattered storms possible. Mainly over our southern counties. Southern Missouri into Kentucky. Northern counties have small rain chances.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning if storms form. If storms form they could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming north and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30% north and 50% southern counties. Southern meaning southern Missouri eastward into Kentucky.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. Monitoring a system moving in from the northwest.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate. Perhaps high if we don’t have many clouds.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. We need to monitor Saturday night into Monday. New energy moves along this front. Heavy rain is a concern.
What impact is expected? Likely none. If we can get thunderstorms out of here by Saturday then Saturday night should be dry. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50% (higher if the front stalls over us)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 50% (higher if the front stalls over us).
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at –:– a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Monday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 12:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:11 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbons.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- More storms
- Muggy
Quick update. I am running low on fuel. Been going for a couple of days now with sporadic sleep. Doing my best to keep up with the forecast and severe threats. So, no maps today. Sorry about that.
Wow, is all I can say. We are being hit hard. Between last weekends outbreak and now this wind and flash flood event. It is just incredible to see this kind of weather in July. It is unusual to have tornadoes in July (in our region). It is not unusual to have flash floods.
We had some damage today (Thursday). Damaging winds hit southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Several locations had 50-70 mph wind gusts. Damage was not as widespread as Wednesday’s event. Thankfully. Radar at one point showed very high winds in Scott County, Missouri.
Many of you may have heard me say that my greatest fear in June-July are training thunderstorms. Why? Because they can produce three, four, five inches or more of rain in a short amount of time. And, that happened again on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Radar indicates some locations picked up 5-10″ of rain on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Needless to say flash flooding has been a big problem.
As always, avoid flooded roadways. Numerous roads have been flooded. Some washed away. Give emergency management crews time to clean up. Please stay clear of the disaster areas. This is at the request of local officials. Use common sense.
We may have additional thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
If storms train over the same areas then flash flooding will occur. Keep that in mind. Right now, Thursday night looks to be scattered activity. Maybe a line of storms will approach from the north and northwest on Friday morning. I will need to monitor this. Gusty winds along the leading edge of the line. If it develops. Low confidence.
We are in a severe weather risk Friday and Friday night. Some of this will depend on what happens Friday morning. If we have plenty of sun on Friday then CAPE will build. Energy will build. That will mean the severe weather risk will increase. Again, let’s keep an eye on it.
PWAT values are going to range from 1.6 to 2.4″ over the coming days. Plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into. Thus, torrential downpours continue to be a concern. Some areas picked up 4-8″ of rain over the past weekend. They do not need additional heavy rain. This will need to be monitored.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night-Sunday: Several periods of strong thunderstorms are possible. Timing each system is tricky, at best. Monitor updates concerning the potential for heavy rain and other. FLash flooding is a continued concern. Damaging winds is a concern.
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No major shifts in today’s forecast.
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The main concern over the coming days will be additional rain. Many of us do not need more rain. I realize some spots still need a little precipitation. But, much of the region is soaked.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events this week. I also can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind being the primary concern.
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Avoid flooded roadways. Monitor watches and warnings over the coming days.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. Perhaps monitor radars from time to time. And, monitor updates forecasts this week. Changeable weather is possible.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce locally heavy rain. It is July and there is no lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Where storms form they would produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals will vary considerably.
Where thunderstorms train you could quickly pick up 1-3″ of rain or more. Flash flooding is a concern.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
