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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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Gusty winds late this afternoon and evening could top 30 mph.
Monday Night – Patchy fog overnight. Dense fog possible. Quite a few clouds. A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest in direction at 10-35 mph early and then 6-12 mph after 9 pm and then 3-6 mph after 1 am.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few strong storms possible with gusty winds early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would suggest having a plan B. But, I would not cancel plans.
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Tuesday – Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Small risk
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9 Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Small risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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There is considerable debate about rain chances Wednesday-Sunday. This will need to be monitored. A series of disturbances will pass to our north. Some could dip into our area. Hopefully they will.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds. Mix of sun and clouds. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A 40% chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, lightning, and heavy downpours if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and muggy. A few scattered storms again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms form.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Some guidance shows heavy rain potential Friday night into Sunday morning. Somewhere in that time frame. Let’s keep an eye on it. System would approach from the northwest. Considerable disagreement on eventual track and intensity of the system.
Saturday – Some clouds. Warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning if storms form. If storms form they could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. Monitoring a system moving in from the northwest.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at –:– a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
8 PM to 10 PM Monday night forecast
A few storms WILL be on radar. But, I believe they will be scattered.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A widespread 2″-8″ rain fell across the region.
- Flash flooding and flooding for some areas
- More rain this week? Heavy rain?
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night: A few scattered thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Tuesday-Friday: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
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Completely update temperatures and rain chances. Lowered temperatures a few degrees because of cloud cover and some rain chances. And, increased wording for rain chances.
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The main concern over the coming days will be additional rain. Many of us do not need more rain. I realize some spots still need a little precipitation. But, much of the region is soaked.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events this week.
I am monitoring a stronger system around Friday-Sunday.
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Avoid flooded roadways.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. Perhaps monitor radars from time to time. And, monitor updates forecasts this week. Changeable weather is possible.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce locally heavy rain. It is July and there is no lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Where storms form they would produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals will vary considerably. I would like to get a better handle of the upper level disturbances before posting updated rainfall maps.
If some of these disturbances come together as forecast then some spots could top two or three inches over the coming week. Monitor updates.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
