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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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Rest of your afternoon
Sunday Afternoon – Quite a few clouds. Thunderstorms likely. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds. Frequent lightning and torrential downpours also possible. Monitor watches and warnings.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, lightning, strong winds, dime size hail, and an isolated tornado risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-95 degree range. Cooler where clouds are thicker. Warmer outside of the cloud zone.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southerly and southwesterly at 6-12 mph gusts to 22 mph. Winds north of the warm front will be variable in direction. The warm front will advance northward during the day. Thus, winds will become more south/southwest as the warm air moves into the region.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Becoming numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars on Sunday afternoon and night. A few intense storms could cause problems. Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Questionable amount of sun on Sunday.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. Heavy thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be quite intense. Locally heavy rain also possible overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible. Flooding. Gusty winds near storms. Can’t rule out severe thunderstorms near the warm front. Hail, damaging winds and isolated tornado risk.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. As always, stronger near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%-80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms are possible. Monitor updated information.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and have a plan B.
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There remains some question as to the timing rain will exit on Monday. Have a plan B.
July 4th ~ Monday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for morning and early afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Then scattered storms possible in the afternoon. A few storms could be strong with high winds. Frequent lightning and heavy rain possible. Some question on when precipitation will end on Monday. Have a plan B.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Heavy rain possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk. FLash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range. High temps will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds may become more west and southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% before 11 am. Then 60% after 11 am
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some intense storms can’t be ruled out. Isolated severe weather risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be wise to have a plan B on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Mostly low because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:25 p.m. New moon.
Monday Night – Quite a few clouds. A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest in direction at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few strong storms possible with gusty winds early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would suggest having a plan B. But, I would not cancel plans.
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Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9 Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated storm risk. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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There is considerable debate about rain chances Wednesday-Sunday. This will need to be monitored. A series of disturbances will pass to our north. Some could dip into our area. Hopefully they will.
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun. Hot. Humid. Muggy. Scattered heavy thunderstorms are possible. Lower confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86 to 94 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% (may need adjusting as we move forward)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Thursday – Quite a bit of sun. Hot. Humid. Muggy. A less than 20% chance for a storm at any given location.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Muggy.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Maybe a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning if storms form. If storms form they could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at –:– a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Hot.
What impact is expected? Likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Locally heavy storms over the next 24-36 hours. Flash flooding.
- Rain chances this coming week?
- Heat wave?
I am dealing with severe weather, thus a short update.
We do have a warm front over the region (as of 2 pm on Sunday afternoon). This front will be the focus of some heavy storms over the next 12 hours. An advancing cold front from the west will also trigger showers and heavy storms. There is a LOT of moisture in the atmosphere. PWAT values are topping two inches. Plenty of moisture available for locally heavy rain. Some spots will easily pick up two or three inches of rain.
The main concern over the next 24 hours will be heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. A few storms could produce damaging winds gusts. Also, an isolated tornado risk along the warm front. Mainly on Sunday afternoon and evening. On Monday a few storms could produce damaging winds.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. And, pockets of flash flooding if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Training is when storms repeatedly move over the same location. This type of atmosphere can quickly produce excessive rainfall totals. Some of you will pick up a month’s worth of rain in a few hours time. Avoid flooded roadways.
Thunderstorms should become more scattered on Monday night. No promises for fireworks. I can’t rule out storms in the area during the 7 pm to 11 pm time frame on Monday night.
Tuesday into the weekend will deliver hot temperatures and muggy air. We will have periodic shower and thunderstorm chances. Tough call on whether the greatest thunderstorm chances will remain to over north or nudge into our region. Obviously we hope they nudge into our region. I do think we see at least a few chances over the coming seven days (once we get past Monday). We desperately need rain. Hope it pans out.
Any storms that form, in this hot and humid air mass, could produce locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Down burst winds would also be possible. Down burst winds can exceed 50 mph. Normally over small areas.
Temperatures, outside of clouds and storms, will rise into the 90’s on Tuesday-Saturday. If we end up a bit deeper into the heat ridge then middle and upper 90’s can’t be ruled out. This will depend on the placement of the heat ridge.
Monitor any watches and warnings that are issued today into Monday night.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday afternoon into Monday: A few storms could become severe. Lets keep an eye on Sunday and Monday. Sunday afternoon and night there will be quite a bit of shear in the atmosphere. Damaging winds, hail, and even a few tornadoes will be possible. The main focus, again, will be near the warm front. The placement of the warm front is key to what happens locally. Monitor watches and warnings issued by the NWS.
Monday night into Tuesday: Thunderstorms are again possible. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Wednesday-Friday: On and off chances for scattered thunderstorms. A few intense storms are possible in the heat of the day.
Level three threat for Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.
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Updated temperatures and rain chances. No other changes.
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My main concern will be the severe weather threat on Sunday afternoon and Monday. The exact placement of the warm front will be key to where severe weather occurs. Monitor updates on any watches or warnings. There is the risk for damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes.
Locally heavy rain is also possible with this event. A few spots could top three-five inches of rain. That would likely be near the warm front. A few flash flood warnings will be possible. If thunderstorms train over the same areas then excessive rainfall is possible. LOT of moisture in the atmosphere. PWAT values are above two inches.
Monitor updates, as always.
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Umbrella handy. We will have some showers and thunderstorms on radar over the coming days.
Monitor watches and warnings. Seek shelter if thunderstorms threaten. You don’t need a warning to head indoors.
Flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Locally heavy rain into Monday night. Some spots will top three-five inches of rain. Widespread 0.75:-1.5″. That has been my forecast all along. And, hopefully it verifies. That includes whatever fell on Friday and Saturday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
