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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Some fog. A 10% chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the Kentucky and Tennessee line. Otherwise, partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East winds at 0-5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
What impact is expected? If a storm were to form then lightning would be the concern. Small chance.
Sunday – Morning fog, mixing out leaving us with partly sunny sky conditions. Perhaps mostly cloudy over our southern counties…near the old frontal system. A 20% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: East/southeast winds at 0-5 mph. A gust to 10 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then it could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Nice. Just a very slight chance for a storm around the KY/TN border counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5 mph. Gusts of 5-10 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Monday – Partly sunny. A 20% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph possible on area lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then it could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Monday night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40%-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain possible where storms occur.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: West and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Wednesday and Thursday will probably bring 60%+ chances for storms. How quickly the rain shuts down on Thursday is still questionable. Hopefully we can get this front in and out of here (unlike the last one). I will keep the forecast updated as we move forward.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A great Sunday for weather
2. Small chance for storms Sunday into Monday (less than 20% chance).
3. River flooding continues…see the lake and river stages for more information on crest levels.
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Remember a month ago when I was calling for a cool down at the end of June into July? Well the numbers are in. Temperatures for the last seven days. These are the anomalies.
As you can see, below normal temperatures coverage a large chunk of real estate. We can thank the northwest wind flow aloft for these nicer temperatures. June wasn’t all that nice. It was warmer than I anticipated.
Of course we have been extremely wet in some of our counties. Three months worth of rain fell over the last 3 days in some places. Amazing rainfall totals. That is what a northwest wind flow can do. Frequent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Weekend Outlook:
Sunday will bring decent weather. The front that has been a thorn in our side over the past 3-4 days will have washed out. That will leave small boundaries in our region where a couple of storms could form. Once again the best chances will be around the Kentucky and Tennessee border counties (and even there the chance is less than 20%)
Most of us will remain dry. Enjoy your Sunday weather!
The new work week:
Thunderstorm chances will start to tick up on Monday and especially Tuesday into Thursday. A strong cold front will approach our region from the west and north. This will once again set the stage for potentially heavy rain and thunderstorms. Right now it appears the best chances might be on Tuesday into Wednesday night.
If the front slows a bit then I will need to adjust the timing. Some places could pick up another 1-3″ of rain from this front. Not everyone, but some. Same as the last few days. Pockets of very heavy rain a good bet. High QPF event.
I will need to monitor the severe weather threat. Perhaps a small risk for a few severe storms.
Here are the temperature anomalies for Sunday. How many degrees below normal will high temperatures be?
Not as much as recent days. But, still near normal to below normal for the region.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Another cold front arrives next week with more high QPF (heavy rain) events possible
2. River flooding concerns
Another cold front will sag back into our region next week. The timing of this front will be key to our next round of potentially heavy rain. Obviously we don’t need more heavy rain. This is a concern. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Right now, subject to changes…it appears the best chance for some heavy rain would be around Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday/Wednesday night.
River flooding continues to be an issue in our region. Recent heavy rainfall isn’t helping our cause. More heavy rain could cause additional problems.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best
Mostly dry for Sunday. Only a couple of isolated storms possible near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Rainfall amounts for Monday will be spotty. If storms pop up then a quick 0.25″-0.50″ of rain is possible in a few spots. Most areas will remain dry.
Tuesday into Thursday will bring better rain chances with pockets of 1-3″+ again possible. Same as this past week.
Here is the official rainfall forecast (broad-brushed) for the upcoming week. Most of this falls from TUE into THUR
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a ONE/TWO for Friday night through Sunday.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Isolated thunderstorms possible, but mostly below severe levels.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – A scattered storm possible. Not forecasting severe storms.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Recent heavy rains will mean that rivers will remain high for some time to come. Fast moving water can quickly sweep people off their feet. Use care while camping. Especially children.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Lightning, as always.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
