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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted. It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.
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July 29, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:03 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:18 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night – Patchy fog possible late. Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Most coverage of storms would be before 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 10 pm. 20% after 10 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (early)
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds and small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 30, 2016
Saturday – Patchy morning fog possible. Partly sunny. A few showers and thunderstorms again possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered. Some guidance shows numerous storms during the afternoon hours. Lower than normal confidence on coverage.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage report possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to possibly high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible (mainly early)
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 10 pm. 20% after 10 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered (especially early).
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 31, 2016
Sunday – Patchy morning fog possible. Partly sunny. A few scattered storms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High to possible very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 3:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:18 p.m. Waning Crescent
Sunday Night – Increasing clouds. Heavy thunderstorms developing from the northwest.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could produce downburst winds. Flash flooding is again a concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 1, 2016
Monday – Heavy thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms can’t be ruled out. Flash flooding again possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might need a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:00 p.m.
UV index will be 4-7. Moderate. Assuming we have clouds moderate is right. If the clouds break up then the UV index number would rise.
Moonrise will be at 4:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:06 p.m. Waning Crescent
Monday Night – Patchy fog possible. Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?50% before 10 pm and 40% after 10 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 2, 2016
Tuesday – Mostly sunny during the morning. Patchy fog possible. Partly cloudy afternoon. A chance for a few thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (monitor updates because this may change)
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High to possibly very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 5:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 p.m. New Moon
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 20% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe a few storms in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 3, 2016
Wednesday – Mostly sunny how and humid. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 100+
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High to possibly very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:30 p.m. New Moon
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before 10 pm and 10% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm and unsettled weather to continue
- Uptick in storms chances possible on Monday
Let me tell you what is concerning. What is concerning is that these heavy rain events are becoming more and more common. There are solid studies that indicate flash flood events have been on the increase over the past decade. There is data to support the idea that heavy rain events are becoming more common.
Cities didn’t build or plan for this. Let’s say your city built for a 100 year rain event. What if that 100 year rain event is now a 20 or 40 year rain event? That would mean that cities are not prepared for the degree of flash flooding that might impact them. This is a concern.
I have been watching the weather since I was eight years old. Summer heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. Flash flooding is becoming more frequent. We can discuss why that is, but the bottom line is that cities are not prepared.
Weekend forecast:
We have more scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. Expect the weekend to deliver at least 40%-50% probabilities for thunderstorms. Some of the storms will again be on the heavy side. Locally heavy rain being the main concern. Gusty winds and lightning, as well.
The risk for severe weather on Saturday and Sunday appears minimal. Isolated downburst winds are possible. Keep that in mind. Thunderstorms this time of the year can reach 50,000+ feet into the atmosphere. That is a lot of energy. What goes up must come down. Thus, downburst winds can’t be ruled out. These type of winds can cause tree damage.
Some data is indicating a cluster of storms Saturday afternoon and evening moving out of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. As a matter of fact, this is what the 4K WRF model is showing for six hour rainfall totals. Click the image to enlarge. You can see some heavy totals. Now, with that said, models have not done all that well with the specifics. The pattern favors heavy storms. Placement, we shall see.
A stronger system will approach our region on Sunday night into Monday night. We may see an uptick in thunderstorm activity during that time frame. Perhaps centered on Monday.
If you have outdoor plans this weekend then be sure and check radars from time to time. Lightning has been prolific over the past couple of days.
We may start to heat up next week. Data is showing a brief heat wave Tuesday into Thursday. We may see heat index values top 100 degrees. Long range data shows the northwest flow returning by next weekend. If that happens then thunderstorm chances will once again be on the increase. Go figure. I will keep an eye on the extended forecast. A little less confidence on the details once we get past Tuesday.
Here is the latest GFS model ten day rainfall forecast. If you believe the GFS then the next couple of weeks will deliver plenty of thunderstorm chances.
Dew points will be on the rise by early next week, as well.
We will temporarily see somewhat lower dew points on Saturday and Sunday (a little lower). We pop back into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s by Monday into much of next week. That is MUGGY air.
Sunday dew points. Mostly in the lower 70’s.
Monday dew points. We pop into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s
Tuesday dew points
How much rain is forecast over the coming days? This is broad-brushed outlook.
Keep in mind that locally heavy storms can drop 1-3″ in an hour. Thus, these totals will vary greatly.
Saturday morning low temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Saturday high temperature forecast (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Sunday morning low temperature map
Sunday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night into Monday: Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. Some of the storms could produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and isolated downburst winds. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph. Normally downburst winds occur in very small areas.
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No major shifts in this outlook.
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The main concern continues to be heavy downpours. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. Lightning is also a concern for outdoor events.
Isolated downburst winds will also continue to be a concern.
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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
