Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 29, 2016: Scattered storms into the weekend

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.  The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.

Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted.  It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.

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July 28, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:04 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:15 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Thursday Night – Fog possible.  Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Peak coverage will be before 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds.  Small hail, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 29, 2016
Friday – Patchy morning fog.  Partly sunny.  A few scattered thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A small risk for a few storms becoming severe.  High wind would be the main concern.  Nickel size hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:03 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Friday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds and small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 30, 2016
Saturday – Patchy morning fog possible.  Partly sunny.  A few showers and thunderstorms again possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered.  Some guidance shows numerous storms during the afternoon hours.  Lower than normal confidence on coverage.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage report possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  Moderate to possibly high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible (mainly early)
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to perhaps scattered (especially early).
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 31, 2016
Sunday – Patchy morning fog possible.  Partly sunny.  A few storms possible.  Best chance of thunderstorms on Sunday might be over southeast Missouri into southwest Kentucky and western Tennessee.  Lesser chances for our northeastern counties vs southwestern counties.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11.  High to possible very high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 3:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Sunday Night – Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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August 1, 2016
Monday – Patchy fog possible.  Partly sunny.   A good chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:00 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10.  Moderate to possibly high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 4:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:06 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Monday Night – Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?50% before 10 pm and 40% after 10 pm
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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August 2, 2016
Tuesday – Mostly sunny during the morning.  Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy afternoon.  A chance for a few thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (monitor updates because this may change)
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High to possibly very high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 5:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 p.m.  New Moon

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 20% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe a few storms in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1.  Scattered storms into the weekend
  2.  Another hot spell next week

Wow, did it ever rain.  Parts of western Kentucky have now picked up six to nine inches of rain since Monday.  On Wednesday evening parts of Butler County, Missouri picked up four inches of rain in one hour.  That is an incredible amount of rain in an hour.  Rare to see numbers like that in our region.  If you remember, we had a similar setup earlier in the month.  The pattern repeats.

Remember, a few days ago I told you someone would walk away with extreme rainfall totals.

Click images for larger views

Here are two rainfall charts.  These are radar indicated rainfall totals.  I checked and compared this with actual observations and it is very close.

This first one is the higher end gradient.  See those pink and purple areas?  That represents 6-9″ of rain.

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Here is a lower color table gradient.  It maxes out with the grey colors.

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Much of the region has now picked up 0.75″ to 1.5″ of rain since Monday.  Widespread 1-3″ of rain over parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.  Yet another big July rain event.

We should be thankful the six to nine inch rain totals were not over a city (Paducah for example).   It would have been an expensive disaster.  The pattern favored extreme rainfall.  It delivered.

A stationary front will remain near the region over the coming days.  We will have at least a chance for scattered storms on Friday into Monday.  We might see a bit more coverage on Sunday night or Monday.  That would occur as a stronger short wave dives into the area.  I will keep an eye on it.

Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions into the weekend.  Scattered heavy thunderstorms.

I will be monitoring areas to our northwest for MCS’s.  If an MCS forms then our rain chances will increase.  Keep that in mind.  An MCS is a large thunderstorm complex.  They are fairly common during the summer months.

Here is the NWS/WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook.  Keep in mind, totals will vary greatly.

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Friday  morning low temperature map  (will vary based on clouds)

Click images for a larger view

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Friday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

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Saturday morning low temperature map

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Saturday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

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I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts.  Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site.  That is the one used for non-severe days.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Thursday night-Sunday:  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible.  Some of the storms will produce very heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.  Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in this outlook.
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The main concern continues to be heavy downpours.  Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms.  Lightning is also a concern for outdoor events.

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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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