Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 31, 2016: Stormy

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.  The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.

Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted.  It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.

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July 30, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible (mainly early)
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm.  20% after 10 pm.
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to perhaps scattered (especially early).
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 31, 2016
Sunday – Patchy morning fog possible.  Partly sunny.  A few scattered storms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11.  High to possible very high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 3:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY 

Sunday Night – Increasing clouds.  Evening storms possible.  Then, heavy thunderstorms developing from the northwest.  Best chances may remain over the northwest parts of southern Illinois.  Closer to St Louis and Mt Vernon.  Many areas ma remain dry tonight.  Increasing chances east of the Mississippi River on Monday.  Lower than normal confidence on this part of the forecast.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-72 degree range

Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could produce downburst winds.  Flash flooding is again a concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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August 1, 2016
Monday – Quite a few clouds over the eastern half of the region.  Southeast Missouri might have more sun than areas to the east.  Heavy thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered ot perhaps numerous.  Best coverage east of the Mississippi River.
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.  Flash flooding again possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:00 p.m.
UV index will be 4-7.  Moderate.  Assuming we have clouds moderate is right.  If the clouds break up then the UV index number would rise.
Moonrise will be at 4:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:06 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Monday Night – Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 10 pm and 30% after 10 pm
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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August 2, 2016
Tuesday – Mostly sunny during the morning.  Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy afternoon.  A chance for a few thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (monitor updates because this may change)
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High to possibly very high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 5:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 p.m.  New Moon

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 20% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Maybe a few storms in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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August 3, 2016
Wednesday – Mostly sunny how and humid.  Muggy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  88-94 degree range.  Heat index 100+
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High to possibly very high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:30 p.m.  New Moon

Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before 10 pm and 10% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1. Increasing storm chances on Sunday night and Monday (some heavy)
  2.  Mini-heat wave later this week

We had more big storms on Friday night into Saturday morning.  Christopher, Illinois had several trees down.  It appears a micro-burst hit that area.  Downbursts or micro-bursts can occur with just about any thunderstorm during the summer months.  Thunderstorms climb to heights of 50,000′ or more.  What goes up must come down.  Sometimes it comes down with extremely heavy rain and strong winds.  Keep that in mind over the coming weeks.  These downburst winds are very hard to warn on.

We also had flash flooding on Friday night in Calloway County, Kentucky.  Some areas picked up 5-6 inches of rain in less than two hours.  I received one report of 3 3/4″ of rain in an hour and a half.  Radar verified those totals.  Not surprising.  This air mass is loaded with moisture.  It does not take much to receive large rainfall totals in short periods of time.

Some locations in the area picked up 5″-9″ of rain over the past week.  We knew that was a possibility.  I have never witnessed a July quite like this one.  Not with so many heavy rain events.  Some of you have received more than 30 inches of rain since July 1st.  That is just unheard of (outside of tropical storms or hurricanes).  Strange, to say the least.

We will have a few thunderstorms on Saturday night into Sunday morning.  My main focus is on an incoming storm system for Sunday night and Monday.  Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will accompany the thunderstorms.  Once again someone could walk away with 2-3″ of rain per hour.  This could cause areas of flash flooding.

The greatest coverage of storms, on Sunday night and Monday, might be over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and Kentucky.  That does not leave the rest of the area out.  It just means the greatest coverage might be in the above mentioned areas.

Once again very high PWAT values will find themselves parked over our area on Sunday night and Monday.  PWAT is a measure of moisture content in the entire atmosphere.  We have had high PWAT values since the beginning of July.  This is one reason we continue to receive very heavy rainfall totals.

Let me show you the PWAT values maps.  Anything about 2″ is considered extreme.  We will have a prolonged period of high PWAT values.

The map below is for 1 am on Monday.  Note the pinkish/purple/white colors.  Those are extremely high PWAT values.

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The map below is for 4 am on Monday

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The map below is for 7 am on Monday

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The map below is 10 am on Monday

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The map below is for 1 pm on Monday

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The map below is for 4 pm on Monday

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The map below is for 7 pm on Monday

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Models don’t handle patterns like this very well.  They are not capable of forecasting rainfall totals for specific areas.  I can tell you that the data is flashing a heavy rain signal on Sunday night into Monday.  Any storms that form could produce torrential downpours.  Some areas could pick up 3-6″ of rain.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Here is the NAM guidance from two different model runs.  The first one was from Friday night and the second one was from Saturday morning.  See the huge differences in rainfall totals?  That is because models can’t resolve where the heavy rain will fall.

Click image to enlarge

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Here is the Saturday morning run

qpf_acc.wxt_ov (1)

 

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A ridge of high pressure builds back into our region by the middle of the week.  This will help pop temperatures into the lower to middle 90’s.  Heat index values will again rise into the 100-110 degree range.  The peak of the heat should be Wednesday and Thursday.  I am already tracking another disturbance for late in the week.  Our heat way MAY not last all that long.  I will monitor the trends.

Heat index forecast (what it feels like to the human body) for Tuesday through Thursday.  Expect 100+ degree heat index values.  Actual air temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90’s.  Some of this will depend on cloud cover and any thunderstorms that remain in the area.

Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Thursday

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How much rain is forecast over the coming days?  This is broad-brushed outlook.

Keep in mind that locally heavy storms can drop 1-3″ in an hour.  Thus, these totals will vary greatly.

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Sunday morning low temperature map  (will vary based on clouds)

Click images for a larger view

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Sunday high temperature forecast (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)

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Monday morning low temperature map

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Monday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)

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I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts.  Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site.  That is the one used for non-severe days.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Saturday night into Monday:  Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.  Some of the storms could produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and isolated downburst winds.  Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.  Normally downburst winds occur in very small areas.
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Increased storms chances for Sunday night and Mondaysfct.wxt_ov (18).
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The main concern continues to be heavy downpours.  Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms.  Lightning is also a concern for outdoor events.

Isolated downburst winds will also continue to be a concern.

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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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