Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 26, 2016: Unsettled weather.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.  The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted.  It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.

July 25, 2016

Sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:56 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Monday Night – Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 74 to 78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable  at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before 10 pm.  40% after 10 pm.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 26, 2016
Tuesday – Patchy early morning fog possible.  Partly sunny.  Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  88-94 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:55  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:06 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at -:– -.m. and moonset will be at 1:02 p.m.  Last Quarter

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph.  Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 27, 2016
Wednesday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds variable in direction, at times.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:05 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10.  Medium to high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:09 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 28, 2016
Thursday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:57  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:04 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 1:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:15 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 28, 2016
Friday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:03 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11.  High.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Friday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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July 28, 2016
Saturday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  82-86 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:02 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9.  Moderate to possibly high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1.  Stationary front
  2.  Thunderstorms with heavy rain
  3.  Flash flooding threat
  4.  Cooler weekend?

The main weather story, for the next few days, will be a stationary front that will park itself over our region.  This front will be the focus for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.  There is a risk for flash flooding over the coming days.  Avoid flooded roadways, as always.  Monitor for watches and warnings that might be issued this week.

The atmosphere will be  unstable this week.  The good news is that wind fields aloft will be fairly weak through Wednesday.  That means the severe weather risk is somewhat mitigated.  I can’t completely rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.  The concern would be a few reports of damaging winds.  Stronger wind fields may arrive by Thursday into Friday/Saturday.  That might mean a better chance for damaging winds.  This will need to be monitored.   Confidence remains low on that part of the forecast.

Confidence is, however, high that we will see some big rain totals over the coming days.  Parts of Missouri and Illinois, to our north and west, received over four inches of rain Sunday night.  That is the kind of air-mass we are dealing with.   PWAT values of 1.7 to 2.2 will be commonplace over the coming days.  That is a lot of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.  Sustained periods of high PWAT’s historically mean pockets of very heavy rain.

Temperatures this week will be somewhat lower because of cloud cover and storms.  It will still be warm and muggy.  Where the sun manages to remain out for an extended period of time you will see temperatures jump into the lower 90’s.  The general rule will be 85 to 90 degree high temperature readings.  Heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees.  Again, higher readings are possible in areas that experience  more sunshine.

A cold front is forecast to push through our region this coming weekend.  The front might deliver some cooler temperatures and lower dew points.  Some of the guidance is showing overnight lows into the upper 50’s to middle 60’s.  That would be nice.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  We can dream 🙂

 

 

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the week.  A few of the storms could produce very heavy rainfall totals.  I am forecasting a general 0.75″-1.50″ of rain between now and Saturday.  Some spots could receive  3-6″ of rain.  Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Here is the NWS/WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook.  Keep in mind, totals will vary greatly.

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Tuesday morning low temperature map

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Tuesday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

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Wednesday morning low temperature map

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Wednesday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

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I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts.  Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site.  That is the one used for non-severe days.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Monday night:  Evening storms are likely.  Then, a chance for storms late at night.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain will be the main concern.
Tuesday-Friday:  Several periods of strong storms are possible this week.  Some of the storms will produce very heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.  Monitor updates.

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No major shifts in this outlook.
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The main concern for the week ahead will be periods of showers and strong thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time.  Much like recent weeks, the amount of precipitation at each location will vary greatly.  Some spots could easily pick up 1-3″ of rain over the coming seven day period.  I would not be surprised if some spots pick up 3-6″.

Some of the storms could also produce damaging winds.  The overall severe weather threat is small, but not zero.

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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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