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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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July 24, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Mild. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted. It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.
July 25, 2016
Monday – Perhaps some patchy fog before 8 am. Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 11:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:56 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74 to 78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 26, 2016
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:06 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at -:– -.m. and moonset will be at 1:02 p.m. Last Quarter
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph. Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 27, 2016
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible. Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:56 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:05 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:09 p.m. Waning Crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Incoming cold front
- Increasing chances for thunderstorms
- Some heavy rain possible this week
- Severe weather concerns?
Sunday delivered another day of hot and humid weather conditions to our region. Nothing unusual for summer. Not all that comfortable for outdoor events.
We have a cold front pushing towards our region from the north. This cold front will become the focus for occasional showers and thunderstorms over the coming week. Some of the storms could be heavy.
You can see that front here on these maps. This is for Monday and Tuesday.
And, Tuesday
The front will settle into our region on Monday. It will then stall out for a few days. Periodically there will be small ripples of upper level energy moving along this front. These upper level disturbances will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. An occasional MCS may also form. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes. Our peak rainfall coverage will be when MCS’s track through the area. Timing these will be problematic. Typically MCS’s are not known for their ease of forecasting. I usually tell people we have a decent handle on MCS’s between 12 and 24 hours in advance. Usually more towards the 12-16 hours vs the higher numbers. In other words, tricky to forecast.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
Any storms that form in this atmosphere will have plenty of moisture to tap into. PWAT values will range from 1.7 to 2.2″. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Anything above 1.7″ is considered high. Once you reach the 2″ level you are talking extreme levels. At the end of the day, that means heavy rain from thunderstorms that form. Typical for summer. Many of you have experienced some of these tropical downpours over the past few weeks.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Things that keep me up at night (during the summer months). Day after day of high PWAT values. That is going to happen this week. Here are the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday maps.
You are looking at the PWAT maps. Precipitable water values. The pinkish colors/purple colors represent 2″+ numbers. VERY high PWAT values. Basically that means there will be a lot of moisture available for thunderstorms. To see this day in and day out is concerning. This is a signal for heavy rain.
Here are the Friday and Saturday maps, as well.
A stronger upper level disturbance is forecast to move through our region on Thursday and another one on Friday or Saturday. This could enhance thunderstorm chances. It could also mean a greater chance for severe weather. Let’s keep an eye on it. Still a bit early to know for sure. We may see the Storm Prediction Center upgrade our region into a risk later this week.
You can see those disturbances here on the 500 mb map. I circled the disturbances. These are quite potent.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the week. A few of the storms could produce very heavy rainfall totals. I am looking for a general 0.75″-1.50″ of rain between now and Saturday. Some spots could receive 3-6″ of rain. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Here is the NWS/WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook. Keep in mind, totals will vary greatly.
Monday morning low temperature map
Monday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Notice the weird temperature at Mt Vernon? That is because this model is thinking there could be precipitation in that area. Without precipitation temperatures will rise into the lower 90’s.
Tuesday morning low temperature map
Tuesday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night: Isolated storm possible. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and isolated damaging wind possible.
Monday-Friday: Several periods of strong storms are possible this week. MCS’s may return to the area. Thunderstorm complexes. Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in this outlook.
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The main concern for the week ahead will be periods of showers and strong thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time. Much like recent weeks, the amount of precipitation at each location will vary greatly. Some spots could easily pick up 1-3″ of rain over the coming seven day period. I would not be surprised if some spots pick up 3-6″.
Some of the storms could also produce damaging winds. I am monitoring Thursday-Saturday for stronger wind fields aloft. That could mean an increasing chance for a few severe thunderstorms.
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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
