Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 27, 2016: More storms in the forecast

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG

.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.

2015-10-08_17-58-26

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.  You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.  . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

2016-04-20_20-49-45

TORNADO SHELTERS!  Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here.  Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here

I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

2015-12-18_21-14-12

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

lowconfidence_1

mediumchanceveritation

highverification

.

This forecast covers the counties in red.

1223


This forecast covers the counties in red.

.
New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.  The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.

Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted.  It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.

.

July 26, 2016

Sunset will be at 8:06 p.m.
Moonrise will be at -:– -.m. and moonset will be at 1:02 p.m.  Last Quarter

Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph.  Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

July 27, 2016
Wednesday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds variable in direction, at times.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:05 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10.  Medium to high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:09 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps numerous early in the night.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

July 28, 2016
Thursday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms likely.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:57  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:04 p.m.
UV index will be 4-7.  Medium.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 1:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:15 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

July 29, 2016
Friday – Partly sunny.  Thunderstorms possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 8:03 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Friday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

July 30, 2016
Saturday – Partly sunny.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9.  Moderate to possibly high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 2:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:19 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

July 31, 2016
Sunday – Partly sunny.  A few storms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:01 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9.  Moderate to possibly high.  Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 3:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:18 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

.

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.

Banner Ad 3

Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

2016-06-30_10-21-42
2016-07-21_11-35-55

2015-03-20_19-08-11

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

  1.  Stationary front
  2.  More thunderstorms
  3. Updated crop numbers

The updated crop numbers are in and they look pretty good.

Illinois

Missouri

Kentucky

Earlier in the year I picked two areas (in our region) for drought concerns.  The red square area is where I was concerned.  They are indeed having some problems.

2016-07-26_11-34-11

I found myself a new T-shirt.  Just could not pass this one up.

13615454_10154265006365309_6423659429587774341_n

2016-07-26_8-49-41

Weather Story:

The main weather story continues to be a cold front/stationary front that has settled into our local area.  This front has been the focus for scattered intense thunderstorms over the past couple of days.  We will still be dealing with this front on Wednesday.

Locally heavy thunderstorms will develop each day.  Some of the storms will produce 1-3″ of rain per hour.  Flash flooding is the main concern.  We did see several flash flood warnings issued on Monday and Monday night.  Additional flash flood warnings are certainly possible.  Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

A tropical type system is pushing towards our region from the Gulf of Mexico.  This system could enhance rainfall totals over the coming days.

It is sort of a broken record forecast.  We will have peak chances for storms during the afternoon hours.  The severe weather risk is small, but not zero.  If severe weather were to be reported it would most likely be from downburst winds.  Frequent lightning will also be a concern.

A stronger system will move into our region on Thursday and Friday.  We should see an increase in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday night into at least Friday.

Unfortunately, at this time, it appears addition storms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and precipitation.  Expect upper 80’s to lower 90’s where the sun is out for a few hours.  Expect 84-88 where clouds linger the longest.  Temperatures during storms will dip into the 70’s.

Rainfall totals from the beginning of this event until the end will likely top five inches in some counties.  Keep that in mind.  Widespread 0.75″-1.5″ is anticipated across the region.  Pockets of much higher totals.

Here are the rainfall totals from Monday morning through 7 am on Tuesday morning.  Notice the patchy quilt style to the precipitation totals.  Anywhere from 0.00″ to 0ver 2.5″ of ran fall on Monday and Monday night.  Click image for the full size view.

TUEMorning

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the week.  A few of the storms could produce very heavy rainfall totals.  I am forecasting a general 0.75″-1.50″ of rain for the entire event.  Some spots could receive  3-6″ of rain.  Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Here is the NWS/WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook.  Keep in mind, totals will vary greatly.

wpc_total_precip_mc_28

Wednesday morning low temperature map  (will vary based on clouds)

sfct.wxt_ov (4)

Wednesday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

sfct.wxt_ov (5)

Thursday morning low temperature map
sfct.wxt_ov (6)

Thursday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)

sfct.wxt_ov (7)

I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts.  Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site.  That is the one used for non-severe days.

Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

2014-11-03_15-49-30

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

.
Wednesday-Friday:  Several periods of storms are possible over the coming days.  Some of the storms will produce very heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.  Monitor updates.

level2_0
.

2014-11-03_7-32-16

.
No major shifts in this outlook.
.

whatamiconcered
.

The main concern for the week ahead will be periods of showers and strong thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time.  Much like recent weeks, the amount of precipitation at each location will vary greatly.  Some spots could easily pick up 1-3″ of rain over the coming seven day period.  I would not be surprised if some spots pick up 3-6″.

Some of the storms could also produce damaging winds.  The overall severe weather threat is small, but not zero.

.
willineedtotakeaction
.

Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
.

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

..

2014-12-21_20-26-42

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

Comments are closed.