Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

What do the confidence levels mean?

I am concerned about the new work week.  A front is going to stall over our area.  Perhaps it will stall over our northern counties.  Maybe further south.  Most likely it will meander around our area.  The placement of the front will be greatly influenced by thunderstorm complexes.  Where they form will be key to frontal placement.

A series of thunderstorm complexes (MCS’s) could impact our region.  Each one could easily produce 1-3″ of rain.  If storms train over the same areas then rainfall totals of 3-6+” can be anticipated.  I have been watching this system for a few weeks now.  Everything seems to be coming into place for potentially heavy rain.  PWAT values will be at or over 1.7″ during the new work week.  Those are high numbers.  PWAT is a great way to measure moisture in the entire atmosphere.  Top to bottom, in other words.

We might have to deal with some flash flooding.  Monitor the latest forecasts as we move forward.

There will be plenty of energy for thunderstorms.  It is July.  Heat and high dew points always equals unstable air.  We will need to monitor the severe weather threat, as well.  As we have witnessed over the past four weeks, thunderstorms in July can be severe.  Especially when wind fields aloft pick up.

A stronger system may move into the area towards the end of the week.  This system could trigger a better chance for severe thunderstorms.  Wind fields aloft are forecast to increase.  That would mean a better chance for organized severe weather.

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No major shifts in this outlook.
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Main concern continues to be hot temperatures and high heat index values.  Use care, as always.
I am concerned about the potential of heavy rain next week.  Some spots could pick up 3-6″ of rain.  A series of disturbances will push through our region.  Each one could trigger thunderstorms.  We will need to monitor a stationary frontal boundary.  Thunderstorm complexes will likely track along this front.  There will be no lack of moisture.  Flash flooding will be a concern.

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High heat index values may make it uncomfortable outside.  Use care.  Don’t forget the outdoor pets.  Freshening the water bowl a couple of times a day would help.

Monitor radars for locally intense thunderstorms.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Isolated storms into Sunday night could produce heavy rain.  Pockets of 1-3″ per hour are possible IF storms form.

I am increasingly concerned about the possibility of heavy rain next week (Monday onward).  A series of upper level disturbances will trigger thunderstorm complexes along a stationary front.  These storms could produce tremendous rainfall totals.  If storms train over the same areas then I would not be surprised to see some 3″-6″ totals next week.  Monitor updates.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.