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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:39 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 8 pm. 20% after 8 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 23, 2016
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A few scattered intense thunderstorms again possible. Typical summer pattern.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-110 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Also, monitor heat index levels.
Sunrise will be at 5:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 10:38 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 24, 2016
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A few intense thunderstorms again possible. Typical summer pattern.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 102-108 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 11:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 25, 2016
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:07 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 11:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:56 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74 to 78 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 26, 2016
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:06 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at -:– -.m. and moonset will be at 1:02 p.m. Last Quarter
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- We had some storms on Friday
- A few more storms over the coming days
- Stationary front next week
- Northwest flow returns next week
A complex of thunderstorms (MCS) rolled across Wisconsin into Illinois and Indiana on Thursday night and Friday. That system pushed into our area early Friday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms accompanied the MCS over parts of our region. There was some wind damage in Calloway County, Kentucky. Winds of 50-60 mph were reported in the Murray, Kentucky area.
This is what an MCS looks like on IR satellite. Large thunderstorm complex. The dark reds are cold clouds tops. Thunderstorms. Why are thunderstorms cold? The clouds top are over 50,000′ into the atmosphere. Pretty cold when you are that high up!
This is the system as it appeared early Friday morning before moving into our local area.
These MCS’s are very hard to predict more than 12-24 hours in advance. This one was no different. There were question as to whether it would survive the trip across Illinois and Indiana. It did. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning was the end result for our region. I had to update the Facebook page and blog Thursday evening in order to catch up with this system.
There will be a few more thunderstorm complexes to monitor over the next 48 hours. Our forecast will center around those and the heat.
Where the sun is prevalent you can expect daily highs into the 90’s for both Saturday and Sunday. Heat index values above 100 degrees. If one of the MCS’s pushes into our area then that will mean an increase in clouds and a better chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures would mostly remain in the 80’s under the thicker clouds. Keep that in mind.
A few scattered heat of the day thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday, as well.
A cold front will push into our region on Sunday night and Monday. This front will become stationary in our region. It will be a weakening front. There should be enough of a convergence along the front to provide lift for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that we will have to deal with several MCS’s next week. IF that occurs then locally heavy rain will be the end result. Frequent lightning, as well. Thunderstorms, over the past few weeks, have been producing downburst winds, as well. Downburst winds can reach speeds of 50+ mph.
We will need to monitor the severe weather risk next week. It is late July and there is plenty of heat and moisture available for strong storms. Wind fields may also increase next week. If that happens then the threat for stronger storms will increase. I am monitoring the middle and end of next week for a stronger system.
Next weeks cold front could deliver lower temperatures, as well. It won’t be cool, but maybe we can shave enough off of the thermometer to bring us down into the 80’s vs 90’s. We will see. Still some time to monitor that part of the forecast.
Stay cool out there!!!
Saturday morning low temperature map
Saturday high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Sunder morning low temperature map
Sunday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and isolated damaging wind possible.
Saturday and Sunday: Scattered thunderstorm risk. If a storm were to form then it would be intense with gusty winds, frequent lightning, a downpour of rain, and dime size hail.
Monday-Friday: Several periods of strong storms are possible next week. MCS’s may return to the area. Thunderstorm complexes. Monitor updates.
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Updated cloud cover and rain chances.
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Main concern continues to be hot temperatures and high heat index values. Use care, as always.
Scattered thunderstorms are a second concern. Intense spotty storms could drop 1-3″ of rain in an hour. Small hail. Isolated reports of wind damage are also possible.
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Monitor radars for locally intense thunderstorms.
Take care of yourself in the outdoor heat. Don’t forget the outdoor pets. Freshen the water bowl a couple of times each day.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Isolated storms are possible over the coming days. A few spots could pick up 1/2″-2.5″ of rain. Slow moving storms can produce heavier totals. Again, most areas will remain dry.
Rainfall rates of 1-3″ per hour can be expected in the heaviest thunderstorms. Typical for summer.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
