We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.
July 17, 2016
Rest of this afternoon: A few thunderstorms possible. Otherwise, hot and humid. Temperatures mostly in the 88 to 94 degree range. Heat index values close to 100 degrees.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for evening thunderstorms. Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. Mostly over our northern counties. Then, late tonight, another area of storms may approach our northern counties.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
July 18, 2016
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92 to 96 degree range. Heat Index 102-108 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Monitor updates. If storms form then could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for a thunderstorm. Mostly northern counties (near Mt Vernon). Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered. Will be watching to the north for storms to push southward.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for damaging winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
.
July 19, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds near storms. Small hail possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range. Heat Index 100-105 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce damaging winds. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for evening thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds north or northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Storms could produce high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
.
July 20, 2016
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 100-106 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? If storms do form they could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:34 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 21, 2016
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 102-106 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Watching a disturbance for Monday night and Tuesday (a few storms)
- The big item I am monitoring is the potential for several days of hot weather later this week into next week
I hope everyone had a nice weekend? The weather was decent. A little humid, yes. It is summer! A few thunderstorms formed on Sunday afternoon. Mainly over our northern counties.
We will heat up a bit more on Monday. Expect widespread 90’s. Heat index values will likely top 100 degrees. It will be a bit more humid than Sunday. It will feel like summer weather in our region. Small thunderstorm chances on Monday.
An upper level disturbance dives into our region on Monday night and Tuesday. This could provide just enough lift for a band of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could arrive as early as Monday night over our northern counties. Then, on Tuesday, the entire region should have at least scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms. The main concern will be lightning and strong winds. Torrential downpours will also be possible. Typical July concerns when it storms. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms could, however, reach severe limits. Thus, monitor updates.
For the past two weeks I have been monitoring for the potential of a heat wave later this week into the weekend. I am anticipating widespread 90’s from Wednesday into the weekend. The heat might linger into next week. There is some debate about where the heat ridge will set up shop after this coming weekend. If the core of the heat ridge were to push further south and west then our temperatures would be a bit lower. If the core of the heat ridge ends up directly over the Missouri Valley then we will bake.
Let’s keep an eye on the placement of the heat ridge. The models have been trending more and more west and southwest. I like the trend. With that said, it will still be hot. This is a very large heat ridge. At peak it will cover much of the United States. I am sure it will make the news later this week and next week. A large area of the United States will likely experience temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Hoping our region can avoid the 100 degree mark. I suspect we may flirt with it or reach it on a few days.
Monday morning low temperature map
Monday high temperature map
Monday heat index values are going to be high. These numbers might be a little high, but expect at least 100-105 heat index numbers.
Tuesday morning low temperature map
Tuesday afternoon high temperature map. Temperatures on Tuesday might not be quite this hot. It will depend on cloud cover.
Let’s take a look at the heat ridge. A heat ridge is a ridge of high pressure that develops over the southwest, south, or southeast United States. It then typically builds into our region. It usually means hot temperatures, spotty storms (if any at all), and muggy conditions. Heat ridges, when they lock into a region, can cause prolonged periods of heat and high humidity.
Here is the 500 mb map. This is about 18,000′ aloft. This is a great map for finding and tracking the heat ridge.
I marked the center of the heat ridge with the word HOT. Large chunk of the surrounding area will also be hot.
This first map is for July 19th. You can see the ridge building. It will strengthen even more as the week progresses.
Here is the Thursday, July 21st map. You can see the ridge centered over Kansasa, Oklahoma, and Texas.
This next map, below, is for Wednesday, July 27th. The ridge has been shoved west/southwest. We will see if this happens. A lot of guidance supports this idea. If it were to show far enough south and west then it would remove us from the extreme heat. It would also put us back into northwest flow. That would mean increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Let me show you the European ensembles. You can see the ridge of high pressure over our region later this week. You can also see in the second graphic that it shifts southwestward with time. That would mean we would return to northwest flow and at least some chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Here is the heat ridge later this week (Thursday). The heat ridge is centered over the Missouri Valley. Jet stream is pushing well northward up and over the ridge.
Then you can see what happens next week. This is the July 27th map. We return to northwest flow. That would mean an increasing chance for thunderstorms. If true.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night and Monday: A few thunderstorms possible. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and isolated damaging wind possible.
Monday night into Tuesday evening: A few thunderstorms could produce damaging winds. Lightning and heavy rain, as well.
Wednesday: Small chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
.
.
Increased thunderstorm probabilities.
.
.
The main concern will be a few thunderstorms. Thunderstorms, in all of this heat and humidity, could produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and damaging winds. Monitor radars in case a few storms pop up.
.
.
Monitor radars for thunderstorms
Listen to any watches and warnings that might have to be issued over the coming days. I can’t rule out a few storms producing damaging winds. Thus, monitor the sky for storm development.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days. A few spots could pick up greater than one inch of rain. Many spots will received less than 0.50″.
We should be mostly dry from Wednesday into Saturday. Maybe isolated thunderstorm chances. I will be monitoring some weak upper level disturbances towards the weekend. Low confidence as to whether they will bring rain to our region.
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
