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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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July 18, 2016
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm. Greater risk in the evening (50%).
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. More numerous in the evening.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for damaging winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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July 19, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds near storms. Small hail possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 100-105 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day. Gusty winds near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce damaging winds. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:11 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for evening thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds north or northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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July 20, 2016
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 102-108 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may be variable in direction at times. Boundaries in the area.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? If storms do form they could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:34 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 21, 2016
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-110 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 22, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-112 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 23, 2016
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-110 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 24, 2016
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 102-108 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Mild. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Watching a disturbance for Monday night and Tuesday (a few storms)
- The big item I am monitoring is the potential for several days of hot weather later this week into next week
The big story is the heat. A return to solid summer temperatures. High temperatures now through the weekedn will top out in the lower to middle 90’s. It is possible that a few days reach into the upper 90’s. Hot. Heat index values will be 100 to 110 degrees. High dew points will make it feel uncomfortable outside. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor says.
We will have at least some chance for thunderstorms on Monday night into Tuesday night. A disturbance will brush our region. Best chances will be over Illinois and Kentucky. Any storms that form will produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. A few down bursts are also possible. Down burst winds can tear branches from trees. Winds can gust over 50 mph. Keep that in mind. The atmosphere will be unstable.
I continue to see the guidance trending towards northwest flow next week. Remember, northwest flow keeps our temperatures down a bit. It also means the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase. We first have to get through the next six to seven days. Widespread heat.
Don’t forget our outdoor friends. Change the water bowls a few times each day.
Tuesday morning low temperature map
Tuesday high temperature map. You can see lower temperatures over our eastern counties. That is because the models are picking up on some potential clouds and storms. If the storms aren’t there then the 90 to 95 degree highs will be widespread. Keep that in mind.
Tuesday heat index values are going to be high. Expect heat index values above 100 degrees.
Wednesday morning low temperature map
Wednesday afternoon high temperature map. Temperatures on Tuesday might not be quite this hot. It will depend on cloud cover.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night and Tuesday: A few thunderstorms possible. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and isolated damaging wind possible.
Wednesday through Friday: Most likely dry. Very isolated thunderstorm risk.
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No major changes in this update. Hot weather in the charts.
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I am concerned about hot weather this week. Don’t forget to change the water bowls for the pets. Expect daily highs into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms could produce high winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
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Monitor radars for thunderstorms.
Take care of yourself in the outdoor heat. Don’t forget the outdoor pets. Freshen the water bowl a couple of times each day.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days. A few spots could pick up greater than one inch of rain. Many spots will received less than 0.50″.
We should be mostly dry from Wednesday into Saturday. Maybe isolated thunderstorm chances. I will be monitoring some weak upper level disturbances towards the weekend. Low confidence as to whether they will bring rain to our region.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
