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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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July 16th
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Just a few clouds. Pleasant temperatures. Only a 20% for an evening shower or storm. Mostly near the MO/AR and KY/TN border.
What impact is expected? An isolated storm might produce wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds east/northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 17, 2016
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Cumulus clouds in the afternoon will be possible. A chance for afternoon thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2016
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A thunderstorm possible. 30% chance.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If storms form then isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm. Mostly northern counties (near Mt Vernon). Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 19, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 40% chance for evening thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds north or northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 20, 2016
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:34 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 21, 2016
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Small risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Decent weekend
- Storm chances around Monday night into Tuesday evening.
- Is the heat ridge shifting west and southwest?
I hope you are having a nice weekend? I am enjoying the relative calm. It has been a long July for meteorologists. I have never witnessed a July like this. Not in my lifetime. Odd.
We still have a cold front/boundary near the region. A couple of showers or storms will be possible along the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Most areas will remain dry. Keep that in mind, however, if you are outside. Small chance for a storm.
Sunday will deliver mostly sunny sky conditions. Some puffy cumulus clouds possible during the afternoon. Also, some morning fog will again be a possibility. Otherwise, it will be warm and a little more humid. Not too bad for July. Hopefully no complaints! Only a tiny chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.
Monday heats up into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees. That will be because dew points will once again be on the rise.
A weak disturbance moves through the region on Monday night and Tuesday. This will spark some showers and thunderstorms. The best chance will likely be on Tuesday for most of the area. Northern counties will have at least a few scattered storms on Monday night. The disturbance then shifts southward on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain would be the main concern. It is July and that does mean down bursts will also be possible. Keep that in mind. A down burst would mean strong winds in a few locations. We have had numerous down bursts over the past few weeks.
We should dry out Wednesday into next weekend. One item to mention is that the model guidance continues to shift further south and west with the heat ridge. IF the ridge is further south and west then perhaps we will avoid the 100+ degree weather. Certainly a possibility. At one time the ridge was forecast to be centered right over our region. With time, however, it has been shifting further and further south and west.
If the ridge shifts far enough south and west then we will end up in the storm track. Thunderstorm complexes typically travel along the periphery of the heat ridge. Normally near the 588 line. If you want thunderstorms then you will need to be around that line on the 500 mb map. Forecasts will change if this ridge is much further south and west.
Now, compare to the image below. Where is the high? Well to the south and west. This is great news if we want to avoid a long heat wave. Let’s keep watching it.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night: Small chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
Sunday into Monday: Mostly dry. Monitor updates for changes. A very small chance for a popup thunderstorm.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: I can’t rule out some storms moving in from the north and northwest. Monitor updates
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Small adjustments. No major changes.
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No major concerns for Saturday night and Sunday.
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No
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Only isolated storms are possible on Saturday night into Sunday night. Perhaps a better chance around Monday night into Tuesday night as a disturbance moves in from the north and northwest. Low confidence on rain totals.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
