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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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July 15th
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Evening heavy thunderstorms possible. Small hail and strong winds.
What impact is expected? Lightning, wet roadways, small hail, and strong winds. Flash flooding possible in some spots from the heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for damaging winds. Small hail also possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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July 16th
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm. Isolated storm possible. <20% chance.
What impact is expected? Isolated areas of lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds becoming more easterly at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Pleasant temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds east/northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 17, 2016
Sunday – Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps a late night shower or thunderstorm. Chances appear small. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2016
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A stray thunderstorm possible. <20% chance.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If storms form then isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20%-30% chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 19, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 40% chance for evening thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Friday evening storms
- Calmer weather for the weekend
- Watching a disturbance on Sunday night and another one on Tuesday
- Heat next week
The main weather story over the coming days will be drier weather. Yes, we still have to push the cold front through the area. That will occur late Friday night and on Saturday. Once the front passes through our region the thunderstorm chances will come to an end.
There has been no lack of rain over the past 14 days and 30 days. Let’s look at that on a map.
Here are the precipitation totals for the past 14 days (this is what has already fallen). Parts of our region have picked up more than 25 inches of rain since July 1st.
And here is the precipitation map for the past 30 days. Click image to enlarge
Saturday and Sunday should be nice. I suppose I can’t rule out a very isolated thunderstorm. If that were to occur it would be over our southern counties. The Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Most areas should remain dry.
Dew points will be a bit lower over the weekend. That means the air will feel a little better.
Dew points are how meteorologists measure moisture in the air. It is a better measure than humidity. When dew points are in the 70’s you feel uncomfortable outside. When dew points are in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s it feels better outside. The lower the dew point the drier the air.
Here are the Friday afternoon dew points
Compare those with Saturday. See the drop? That occurs behind the cold front.
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday. Saturday high temperatures will mostly be in the 80’s. High temperatures on Sunday will top out in the upper 80’s to perhaps middle 90’s. Some of the data shows middle 90’s over southeast Missouri. Coolest air will be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Hotter south and west. Cooler north and east.
I am watching a disturbance on Sunday night and a stronger one on Tuesday. A few storms may form during these time periods. Perhaps the greater chance would be on Tuesday. Confidence is low on that part of the forecast. If storms form on Tuesday they could produce locally heavy downpours. Again, perhaps Tuesday is the best chance for more precipitation.
At this time, Wednesday into next weekend is shaping up to be hot and humid. Dry, as well. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the south and east. This ridge of high pressure will park itself over the central United States. Hot temperatures will be the rule of the day. The hottest air will likely be to our west. Perhaps numerous days with upper 90’s and lower 100’s. For our region, temperatures will mostly be in the 90’s and heat index values above 100 degrees. Not all that comfortable.
Here is the ridge of high pressure on the 500 mb map. Heat ridge. The closed black lines indicate the higher heights. Highest heights are located over the central United States.
A lot of guidance wants to push the ridge of high pressure to the west and southwest as we move into next weekend and the week after. IF this happens then we might return to a northwest flow. The jet stream would dive down from the north and west. This would mean a return to thunderstorm chances as we end the month and begin August. Long way off. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Here is the position of the ridge towards the end of the month. Notice how it has moved to the south and west?
Farmers might be able to get quite a bit of work done next week. Especially Wednesday into next weekend. We could use some dry weather. Well, most of us could use some dry weather. Some of you have mentioned you still need rain. This is especially true over northwest Tennessee.
There could be a few isolated heat of the day airmass thunderstorms under the heat ridge. Chances would be less than twenty percent.
Let me show you the temperature anomaly maps for this Saturday and next Saturday. Normal to below normal temperatures on Saturday. Look what happens next week. A flip. We move towards hotter weather next week.
This is Saturday’s temperature anomaly map
Compared to next Saturday.
Let’s take a look at some weekend temperature maps
This map is the low temperature map for Saturday morning
This next map is the Saturday high temperature map
This next map is the Sunday morning low temperature map
This next map is the Sunday afternoon high temperature map
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday evening: A few remaining storms. Some storms could be intense with small hail and gusty winds.
Saturday and Saturday night: Small chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
Sunday into Monday: Mostly dry. Monitor updates for changes. A very small chance for a popup thunderstorm.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: I can’t rule out some storms moving in from the north and northwest. Monitor updates
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Small adjustments. No major changes.
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No major concerns for Saturday and Sunday.
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We may still have some storms on Friday evening. Those storms could be intense. Monitor updates on Friday afternoon and evening.
Saturday and Sunday should be dry. Very small chance for a popup thunderstorm.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Rain chances come to an end on Saturday and Sunday. I only have 10%-20% chances for both days. Very small chances. A few remaining storms on Friday afternoon and night. Those could produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals on Friday afternoon and evening will range from no rain at all to perhaps pockets of 1-2″. Same pattern as the last few weeks. Some spots will pick up heavy rain.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
