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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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The probabilities for rain each day will vary. Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky. Don’t get too hung up on the % number. Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area. But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you. A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.
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July 14
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Thunderstorms that form could be intense.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Medium confidence
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Isolated severe risk possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium overall confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time.
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July 15th
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may be variable in direction, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to moderate. If we have less clouds on Friday then you can increase the UV numbers.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 16th
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm. Isolated storm possible. <20% chance.
What impact is expected? Isolated areas of lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds becoming more easterly at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Pleasant temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds east/northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 17, 2016
Sunday – Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps a late night shower or thunderstorm. Chances appear small. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2016
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A stray thunderstorm possible. <20% chance.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If storms form then isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20%-30% chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 19, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn out of the northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid. Low confidence on this part of the forecast. Monitor updates,
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated to scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
NOTE: Confidence is not all that high on the weekend forecast. Rain probabilities may need to be adjusted.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- More chances for strong thunderstorms
- Weekend outlook may be mostly dry. Monitoring guidance.
- Heat wave expected next week.
We will enter the weekend with a front stalled near the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday. At this time, Friday night into Sunday should be mostly dry. Friday night into Sunday will have small thunderstorm chances. I believe the odds favor most locations remaining dry.
I am anticipating temperatures to be near normal over the weekend. Nothing extreme. This should make for a nice weekend for camping or at the lake. Keep in mind, a few storms could pop up, but coverage should be limited.
We should start to experience a warming trend next week. Data is mixed on just how warm. The guidance keeps pushing the hottest temperatures further and further back. Ensembles indicate a ridge of high pressure will build into the central United States. Anyone under the ridge can expect highs into at least the 90’s and heat index values above 100 degrees.
I have been watching the guidance to see where the MCS’s will track next week. Most of them should stay to our north and east. The GFS guidance does bring one into our region. But, it is the outlier. So, let’s keep an eye on updated forecasts. Let’s plan on next week being hot and humid.
I will be monitoring Tuesday for a disturbance that could spark some precipitation in or near our region. Low confidence.
Longer range data shows another trough moving into the region by the end of the month. If that happens then a return to more active weather could return. Long way off. I did post a long range video on the new Weather Talk video page. Click here to view the video
Videos are updated once or twice a day. The long range video is updated every few days.
Don’t forget you can click the maps to enlarge the image.
I wanted to show you the GFS precipitation maps. These are 24 hour totals. What I wanted to show you is where the GFS is tracking next weeks storm activity.
This first map is for 7 am on Sunday night through 7 am on Monday morning. Notice how the storm track is further north of our region.
The GFS does attempt to bring rain into our region on Tuesday or Wednesday. Very low confidence on this happening. It appears a disturbance will pass near our region on Tuesday. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The Canadian GEM guidance also shows some precipitation in our region on Tuesday
Let’s take a look at some weekend temperature maps
This first map shows you Friday’s high temperatures
This next map is the low temperature map for Saturday morning
This next map is the Saturday high temperature map
This next map is the Sunday morning low temperature map
This next map is the Sunday afternoon high temperature map
According to NOAA’s latest monthly climate report, June 2016 was the warmest June on record for the contiguous United States dating back to 1895. The June temperature for the contiguous United States. was 71.8°F, or 3.3°F above the twentieth-century average, surpassing the previous record of 71.6°F set in 1933. The year-to-date (January-June) temperature was 50.8°F, 3.2°F above the twentieth-century average, making it the third warmest on record.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night into Friday: A few storms are possible. I can’t rule out isolated reports of severe weather. The main concern would be damaging winds. Torrential downpours, as well. Perhaps a report or two of pea to dime size hail. Frequent lightning is a concern for outdoor events. And, there is an isolated tornado risk.
Saturday: Monitor update. Right now Saturday looks mostly dry. Perhaps isolated storms.
Sunday into Monday: Isolated storms. Mostly dry. Monitor updates for changes.
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Updated temperatures. Updated rain chances. Added rain chances for Tuesday. Overall, a low confidence on this forecast package.
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The main concern continues to be thunderstorms. Outdoor events will need to monitor lightning data. Some storms could produce damaging winds. Heavy rain is also a concern.
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Monitor thunderstorms on radar. Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Avoid flooded roadways. Move indoors till lightning passes. Common sense rules of summer.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We will continue to have at least scattered thunderstorm chances Thursday night into Friday.
Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours. Much like recent weeks, there is no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere.
Rain totals will vary considerably. Same as the last few weeks.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
