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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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The probabilities for rain each day will vary. Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky. Don’t get too hung up on the % number. Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area. But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you. A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.
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Jul 13, 2016
Moonrise will be at 2:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be severe with high winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Strong winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars
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July 14, 2016
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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July 15th
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may be variable in direction, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to moderate. If we have less clouds on Friday then you can increase the UV numbers.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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July 16th
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds becoming more easterly at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible in the evening.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east/northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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July 17, 2016
Sunday – Partly sunny. Perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2016
Monday – Partly sunny. Perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 10% chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
NOTE: Confidence is not all that high on the weekend forecast. Rain probabilities may need to be adjusted.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Storm chances
- Hot and humid next week
The main weather story, for the next few days, will be heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. A complex of thunderstorms will approach our region late this afternoon and evening (Wednesday). These storms could produce damaging winds and heavy rain. Some severe thunderstorm warnings might need to be issued because of this squall line.
We will have on and off thunderstorm chances into at least Friday night. Some data shows scattered storms on Saturday and Sunday, as well. I am not overly confident on the Saturday and Sunday forecast. Not, yet, at least.
There is no lack of moisture in the atmosphere for these storms to tap into. Storms could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. This could cause additional flash flooding. Some areas have picked up more than 25″ of rain over the past twelve days. Monitor watches and warnings. Avoid flooded roadways.
There is also plenty of unstable air. Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce high winds. Monitor all watches and warnings.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night into Friday: A few storms could become severe. The main concern would be damaging winds. Torrential downpours, as well. Perhaps a report or two of pea to dime size hail. Frequent lightning is a concern for outdoor events. And, there is an isolated tornado risk.
Saturday: Monitor update.
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The main adjustments have been to the rain probabilities. Trying to time these systems has been problematic, to say the least.
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A couple of storms could become severe over the next few days. Currently, a widespread outbreak is not in the forecast. Monitor updates, however, in case the severe weather threat increases.
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Main concern will be a few pop up storms over the coming days. Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Avoid flooded roadways. Move indoors till lightning passes. Common sense rules of summer.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We will continue to have at least scattered thunderstorm chances over the coming days. It is a tricky forecast. Timing these little vort maximums, that travel through the upper air flow, is difficult.
Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours. Much like recent weeks, there is no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere.
Rainfall totals will likely range from 0.25″ to over three inches between now and Saturday night. Again, storms this time of the year can drop heavy rain in short periods of time. And, some spots could have flash flooding.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
