We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
.
New! Video page.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
The probabilities for rain each day will vary. Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky. Don’t get too hung up on the % number. Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area. But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you. A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.
Monday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 12:52 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:11 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening thunderstorm possible. Mainly over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Then, a chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1 am. Mainly across Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30% evening and then 40% after 1 am
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Tiny risk for high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Showers and thunderstorms might be a bit more numerous on Tuesday morning over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range. Heat index 95 to 102 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High where it is mostly sunny. More like 3-6 where partly cloudy or cloudy sky conditions prevail.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbons.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorm possible
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time
.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index at or above 100 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 2:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may be variable in direction, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to moderate. If we have less clouds on Friday then you can increase the UV numbers.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible in the evening.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds East at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Sunday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Monday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:40 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:35 a.m. Full moon.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A few storms
- Increasingly unsettled weather this week
- Heavy rain concerns
- Severe weather concerns
We made it through the weekend! And, most areas remained dry on Saturday and Sunday. There were exceptions. Parts of southeast Missouri had very heavy rain on Saturday. Flash flooding was reported in Butler County, Missouri. Radar estimated some locations picked up more then 2″-3″ of rain. It was a slow moving storm. Typical for July.
Here are the radar estimated rain totals from the Saturday thunderstorm complex over southeast Missouri. Click the image for a larger view. The white and pink areas represents greater than 3″ of rain. Scale is on the left side of the graphic. Needless to say, that was a heavy downpour.
The rest of the area enjoyed a much deserved break from dramatic weather. Much deserved is an understatement. We have been put through the wringer over the past seven days.
We take a look at temperatures for Monday morning, Monday afternoon, Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon. It will be warm, but not extreme. Although, with all the moisture in the ground it may feel more uncomfortable with higher dew point numbers.
Monday morning lows
Monday afternoon highs
Tuesday morning lows
Tuesday afternoon highs
We might have some more active weather during the upcoming work week. Several upper level disturbances will advance through the region from the west and northwest. These disturbances could produce heavy rain. Thunderstorms, during the Month of July, do not lack moisture. Plenty of moisture for heavy rain. Storms could also produce damaging winds. Much like last week, there will be quite a bit of energy available for thunderstorms to tap into.
Let’s monitor the potential for changeable forecasts over the coming days. There may be a couple of time periods when the Storm Prediction Center places us in a severe weather risk zone. It would not surprise me. At least a marginal risk.
There should be a couple of time periods when rain chances peak. One of those could be on Tuesday, another on Wednesday night and Thursday, and perhaps again on Friday night and Saturday. Now, with that said, confidence on timing these fronts will be lower than normal.
We will have periods of time when PWAT values are over two inches. And, when that happens you can expect torrential downpours.
Here are the Thursday morning PWAT values. You can see the dark blue and purple colors. That represents PWAT values of 1.6 to over 2.0″. I would consider a high PWAT values of 1.7 or above. Once you get into the 2.0″ or above range you can expect 1-3″ per hour rainfall totals. Last week we had PWAT values above 2.0″.
Here is the Friday evening PWAT value map.
Here is the Saturday morning PWAT map. An extended period of high PWAT values are possible this week. And, that could mean torrential rain. I will be watching for MCS development.
Guidance is not in agreement on the timing of rain chances or the extent. Thus, monitor updates, as always. Don’t forget I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk web-site under BeauCast
Each front would have the potential of producing MCS’s. An MCS is a large thunderstorm complex. We dealt with those last week. And, we might have more during the upcoming seven day period.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
We take a look at the upper level 500 mb map. This map will show us where the short waves are and vorticity maximums. Perhaps you could think of them as lobes of energy. The short waves and vorticity maximums show up in red and yellow. The red color indicates a stronger shortwave/vorticity maximum.
There shortwaves can produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms. But, often times during the summer months, the shortwaves are fairly weak. And, hard to forecast.
The 500 mb can help located troughs and ridges. A trough, again, brings unsettled weather. A ridge is normally associated with hot weather (and mostly dry).
A trough dips down from the northwest. A ridge pushes northward. Basic definition of trough and ridge.
This first map shows you a strong vort max over the Pacific Northwest (see the trough and bright colors)
It will roll eastward over the coming week. And, eventually will help push a cold front through our region towards the end of the work week.
You can see the trough digging down into Oregon and Idaho. Decent trough, at that. Again, a trough is a dip in the jet stream. Typically troughs are associated with unsettled and storm weather. Mostly ahead of the trough.
This next map is for Tuesday morning. You can see the trough situated over North Dakota and dipping into the Central Plains. You can also see some color in our region. Perhaps a round of storms on Tuesday will be possible in our region. At least scattered.
Moving ahead to Tuesday afternoon you can see a stronger piece of energy from Michigan back into parts of Illinois and Missouri. Generally I would rather see a rounder vort max vs one strung out like the one on this map.
Tuesday evening you can see yellow and orange in our region. Again, some lift in the atmosphere and perhaps a round of storms.
On Thursday morning you can see red in our area. Again, perhaps Wednesday night into Thursday we will have to deal with some showers and thunderstorms. How widespread they will or won’t be will need to be monitored.
Moving ahead to Friday afternoon. You can see a disturbance moving through Missouri and Illinois. Fairly strong one. We will need to monitor this one, as well.
Moving ahead to Saturday. You can see a shortwave over our region. A bit of a dip in the 500 mb line over Illinois and Indiana. This is another time frame to monitor for storms. Friday night into Saturday could produce a round of storms in the region. Perhaps an MCS.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Mostly during the evening hours. Storms that develop could produce isolated reports of high winds. Heavy rain and lightning, as well. Small chance for dime to nickel size hail.
Monday into Monday night: A few strong storms are possible. Maybe isolated severe. Monitor updates.
Tuesday into next Sunday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. I will need to fine tune the details. I can’t rule out additional severe weather. Damaging winds would be the primary concern.
.
.
Small changes today. Mostly to temperatures.
.
.
A couple of storms could become severe over the next few days. But, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Monitor updates, however, in case the severe weather threat increases.
.
.
Main concern will be a few pop up storms over the coming days. Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Avoid flooded roadways. Move indoors till lightning passes. Common sense rules of summer.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.
We will likely have some thunderstorms over the coming seven day period. Perhaps the greatest chances around Tuesday, Wednesday night/Thursday, and maybe around the weekend. Each thunderstorm complex could produce heavy rain and strong winds. Rainfall totals will vary GREATLY. Same as the last few weeks. Anyone finding themselves parked under a thunderstorm complexe could pick up a quick 1-3″ of rain. Meanwhile, neighboring counties would pick up almost no rain at all.
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
