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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page.
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The probabilities for rain each day will vary. Trying to time these little vort maxes/energy will be tricky. Don’t get too hung up on the % number. Also, keep in mind, a 30% chance for storms typically means that there WILL be storms in the area. But, perhaps the odds favor them missing you. A 30% chance for storms does not mean there is a small risk for thunderstorms.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening thunderstorm possible. Mainly over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Then, a chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1 am. Mainly across Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30% evening and then 40% after 1 am
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Tiny risk for high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Showers and thunderstorms might be a bit more numerous on Tuesday morning over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range. Heat index 95 to 102 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High where it is mostly sunny. More like 3-6 where partly cloudy or cloudy sky conditions prevail.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbons.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorm possible
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index at or above 100 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 2:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:36 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Perhaps gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may be variable in direction, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to moderate. If we have less clouds on Friday then you can increase the UV numbers.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:24 a.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:05 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible in the evening.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east/northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- When will it rain again?
- Any severe weather to worry about?
- Heat wave possible next week?
Hello everyone!
We had a fairly calm day over much of the region. There were some exceptions. An upper level storm system, situated to our south, was responsible for some scattered showers and thunderstorms over Tennessee on Monday morning. Some of those showers and storms, at the time of this writing, were pushing northward into Kentucky.
We will likely have to deal with a few showers and storms over the next 24 hours. The best chance for precipitation will extend from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Some of the storms could produce a burst of heavy rain. Gusty winds, as well. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. But, a few reports of high winds certainly can’t be ruled out. It is July and there is quite a bit of energy in the atmosphere.
The timing of precipitation, during the week ahead, will be tricky. We will have at least a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms right on into Saturday. But, there will be a couple of time periods when rain chances should peak. One of those times will be Tuesday morning over western Kentucky and western Tennessee (actually from tonight into Tuesday morning). Another disturbance approaches our region on Wednesday night and Thursday. And, yet another on Friday into Saturday. Each of the disturbances could trigger a round of locally heavy thunderstorms.
I will be watching for the development of MCS’s. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes. They often develop late in the afternoon and peak at night. Weakening during the morning hours. And, occasionally they regain strength during the heat of the day. If there are any boundaries, left over from the thunderstorm complexes, then we have to think about redevelopment of showers and storms. Boundaries are basically what is left after a complex of thunderstorms dissipates. They leave behind temperature and wind differences.
The overall severe weather risk this week is fairly small. However, with that said, we need to monitor daily updates. I would not be surprised if our region ends up in a marginal or slight risk for severe thunderstorms from time to time. The main severe weather concern will be damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado risk. Lightning is a concern, as always. And, flash flooding. The region is saturated. Well, most of the region. And, it would not take much rainfall to trigger flash flooding. As always, avoid flooded roadways.
Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise over the coming days. If high temperatures reach into the 90’s then you can expect heat index values close to or over 100 degrees on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps Thursday, as well. Now, if cloud cover is thicker than forecast then you can shave several degrees off the highs.
Dew points will range from 68 to 77 degrees. That is a lot of moisture in the air. It will feel muggy from time to time.
I would encourage everyone to closely monitor updated forecasts. Forecasts will be changeable over the coming days. Often times it is tricky to forecast these MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes) more than 12-18 hours in advance. And, sometimes there movement is erratic.
The model guidance has been pointing towards a brief heat wave next week. If true, we could experience a string of days well into the 90’s with heat index values well above 100 degrees. Monitor updates. Still some time for adjustments.
We take a look at temperatures for Tuesday morning, Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Wednesday afternoon. It will be warm, but not extreme. Although, with all the moisture in the ground it may feel more uncomfortable with higher dew point numbers.
Tuesday morning lows
Tuesday afternoon highs
Wednesday morning lows
Wednesday afternoon highs
Heat index values will be on the rise. Especially on Wednesday. If we don’t have a lot of clouds in the area then heat index values will pop above 100 degrees.
Here is the Tuesday heat index value map
Here is the Wednesday heat index value map
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Mostly during the evening hours. Storms that develop could produce isolated reports of high winds. Heavy rain and lightning, as well. Small chance for dime to nickel size hail.
Tuesday into Tuesday night: A few strong storms are possible. Severe weather risk appears small. I can’t rule out some down burst winds. Overall, the severe weather risk appears minimal.
Wednesday into Saturday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. I will need to fine tune the details. I can’t rule out additional severe weather. Damaging winds would be the primary concern.
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Updated rainfall totals and temperatures. Small adjustments.
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A couple of storms could become severe over the next few days. Currently, a widespread outbreak is not in the forecast. Monitor updates, however, in case the severe weather threat increases.
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Main concern will be a few pop up storms over the coming days. Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Avoid flooded roadways. Move indoors till lightning passes. Common sense rules of summer.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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We will continue to have at least scattered thunderstorm chances over the coming days. It is a tricky forecast. Timing these little vort maximums, that travel through the upper air flow, is difficult. We should have at least an uptick in thunderstorm activity on Tuesday over our southern and southeastern counties. Mostly western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Then, another uptick of activity on Wednesday night and Thursday. Another potential uptick in activity around Friday and perhaps Saturday. I am not overly confident on the timing of the systems.
Any storms that form could produce heavy downpours. Much like recent weeks, there is no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere.
Rainfall totals will likely range from 0.25″ to over three inches between now and Saturday night. Again, storms this time of the year can drop heavy rain in short periods of time. And, some spots could have flash flooding.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
