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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Avoid flooded roadways!
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Wednesday night – Becoming cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30 to 36 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for showers. Showers more likely in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 45 to 50 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before noon and 40%-60% after noon
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the day. Becoming more widespread as the afternoon wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible, especially during the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Thursday night – Some showers likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes, have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Friday – Cloudy. A chance for showers, mainly during the morning hours.
Temperatures: Highs in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% early in the morning
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Friday night – Some showers likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-46 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes, have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
LOW confidence on the Saturday and Saturday night forecast. The exact track of the area of low pressure will determine what happens in our area. Thunderstorms? Possible. Snow? Possible. Monitor updates.
Saturday – Cloudy. A good chance for showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Some data shows rain changing to snow over at least parts of our area. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front. Timing of the front is certainly in question. Temperatures behind the front will fall into the 30s. Our region could have a wide range of temperatures on Saturday.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph. Winds becoming north/northwest. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updated forecasts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Risk appears small, but needs to be monitored.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Maybe some lightning. Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Saturday night – A chance for showers or snow showers. Turning colder from northwest to southeast. Some models show snow Saturday night. Low confidence. Let’s keep watching.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30 to 36 degree range. Temperatures may vary a bit on Saturday night as a cold front moves through the area.
Winds: Northwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds may be gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Colder temperatures and some precipitation possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? If the cold air moves in quick enough then there could be a few slick spots if a little moisture remains on roadways.
Sunday – Mix of sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a flurry. Cold.
Temperatures: Highs in the 30s, but falling into the 20s
Winds: Northwest wind 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance for a brief period of a wintry mix. Not expecting any accumulation, at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be turning quite cold on Sunday with low wind chills possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? If the cold air moves in quick enough then there could be a few slick spots if a little moisture remains on roadways.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain in the forecast
2. Rainfall totals won’t be enough to change river levels
3. Closely monitor a system for Saturday into Saturday night. Low confidence on the track of the low.
The main weather story will be rain chances ramping up on Thursday into the weekend. We actually have a couple of systems that I am monitoring. The first one will arrive on Thursday. This system will spread rain from west to east over our region. The rain will linger into Friday morning. Rainfall totals should range from 0.25″-0.50″. This is not enough rain to cause concern for the rivers.
No severe weather anticipated with the Thursday and Thursday night system.
Then, close on its heels, will be a second area of low pressure that is forecast to develop to our west and southwest. The computer model guidance packages are not handling this second disturbance very well. Some of the guidance develop a deeper area of low pressure than other guidance. Also, the track of the are of low pressure is questionable. Low pressure is usually associated with unsettled weather. High pressure is typically associated with calm weather. On the weather map the area of low pressure would be the red symbol L. High pressure would be the big blue H.
The GFS guidance has been showing different scenarios for the low. Some runs will deepen the low quite a bit. Tracking it through Missouri and into Illinois. This would place us on the warm side of the system. Areas of low pressure rotate counter-clockwise. Thus, if the low passes to our west we are on the warm side. If the low passes to our south we are on the cold side. If the low does track to our west then that would mean more rain for Friday night into Saturday night. Occasionally the GFS loses the system all together. It takes a rather flat wave to our south. Not a well developed area of low pressure. I don’t have much faith in the GFS right now. Not as long as it swings from one solution to the next.
Meanwhile, the EC (European model) has been trending towards a more organized storm system. It has support among other data sets.
If the low were to track to our south and east then it would place us on the cold side of the system. Thus, we would have a period of rain followed by perhaps a change over to snow over parts of our area. If the low tracks to our west then we should have mostly rain. That rain would likely end before most of the cold air arrives behind the cold front. And, we could even have thunderstorms if the low tracks to our west and north. Especially true if the system is deeper and stronger. This needs to be monitored.
Here is an example of what an area of low pressure would look like on a weather map. See the warm air? And, the cold air?
The ultimate track of the area of low pressure will determine our sensible weather conditions. Since there is lack of agreement in the guidance we should monitor updated forecasts. Guidance will (or should) come together into some agreement over the next 24-36 hours.
Today’s morning GFS took the low over our region. That means the snow potential would be to our north and west.
There are a couple of scenarios that could mean snow in our area on Saturday/Saturday night. However, I would caution you that these scenarios have (at this point) a lesser chance of verifying. I will continue to monitor trends in the guidance and post updates as necessary. As always, winter weather situations can be tricky to forecast. And, forecasts are fluid. Meaning, they can change.
Let me show you the Wednesday morning NAM model. This is what it spit out for a solution. The low tracks over our region. Agreement with the GFS. But, it does track it a bit further south and east. That means a little bit more colder air in our region. The GFS model is slower with bringing the colder air into the region.
The NAM would mean rain changing to snow for some of our counties. Image is from weatherbell.com You can click the image for a larger view.
This is for Saturday afternoon around 3 pm. The low is over southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. The low is moving east/northeast and strengthening. Purple is snow. Green would be rain and some thunderstorms.
This next image is for Saturday evening around 6 pm. Low continues to track east/northeast
Bottom line:
Monitor updates on the weekend forecast. I am sure changes will be necessary before the dust settles.
- We will have to deal with precipitation on Friday night into Saturday evening.
- The track of the low appears to be over or near our region on almost all the guidance.
- I can’t rule out thunderstorms on the southeast side of the system. The warm sector.
- If cold air filters in quick enough there could even be some change over to wintry precipitation, but confidence is very low on that happening
A blend of data would still mostly indicate rain in our region. I like the EC guidance and the low is clustered near AR into KY. That would be a typical track for this time of the year. Won’t discount the GFS taking the low a bit further northwest. But, the GFS has a tendency to do that, as well. A blend takes the low over our region. Thus, mostly rain. Again, confidence is low on the eventual outcome. I will say that most tracks still mean mostly rain in our region.
The 850 mb low tracks into Illinois. If you want snow then you want to be north and northwest of the track of the 850 mb low. Here is what NAM shows for the track. See the small L over east central Illinois? That is the 850 mb low. Several thousand feet aloft. See the blue colors behind that low? That is colder air.
One thing is for sure, colder air will arrive in our region on Saturday night and Sunday. As a matter of fact, temperatures may actually drop on Sunday during the day time hours. By Sunday evening we could be in the lower to middle 20s. Either way, cold weather will return after our brief warm up on Thursday-Saturday. This cool down will last into next week.
I am not tracking any other significant systems. There is a parade of storm systems in the Pacific Ocean. These will push into the United States over the coming 7-14 days. Each of them will need to be monitored. Sometimes this setup can produce surprises.
Let’s look at a few weather maps
This is the GFS map (an earlier run from the one I posted above). Still same idea. Similar track.
This first map is for Thursday afternoon and evening. This shows you the rainfall totals between 11 am and 6 pm. You can see the area of low pressure to our west (KS/OK border)
This next map is for Friday evening. You can see one low over Wisconsin. That would be our first storm. Blue indicates snow. You can see a new low forming over the Texas Panhandle. This second low will be the one to bring additional precipitation chances to our region on Saturday/Sunday. Still some uncertainty on the actual track.
This next map is for Saturday morning. IF the GFS is correct then a low will pass through our region on Saturday. This would mean more rain chances. Again, there is some debate on how this second system tracks.
This next map is for Saturday night around 11 pm. The GFS tracks the area of low pressure into the Great Lakes. That would mean our winds would switch around out of the west/northwest delivering colder air into the region.
This last map shows the big blue H. The cold Canadian high pressure moving southward into the United States. Expect cold temperatures on Monday morning. Widespread teens likely.
Here is the GFS temperature forecast for Sunday evening around 6 pm.
Check out these Monday morning temperatures. This is from the GFS guidance. Similar temperatures are showing up on other models. Brrr
Click image for a larger view.
Here is the Monday evening temperature map. Cold air. it is January! Nothing too extreme.
Let’s look at temperature anomaly maps. How much above or below normal will temperatures be on Friday compared to Monday? These images are from weatherbell.com
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees.
This is for Friday. Warm colors. Temperatures will be above normal.
Now, let’s compare that to Monday morning. Brrr Cold colors for Monday. Below normal temperatures.
Clickable map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No snow anticipated.
Wednesday night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – Monitor updates. A potential winter storm is forecast to develop over the Central United States. Track of the area of low pressure will be key to what happens in our local counties.
Sunday – Some light snow or flurries possible.
Monday – Maybe some snow flurries in the region (Monday or Tuesday)
I have updated Saturday’s forecast. Watching another system that will impact our region on Saturday/Saturday night.
River flooding continues to be the main concern.
Monitor the latest crest forecast numbers.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Watching Saturday into Sunday as colder air arrives. If precipitation remains then there could be a light wintry mix. Low confidence.
Rivers have crested. But, they still remain high.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Monitor the weekend forecast.
The wild card will be what happens on Saturday into Sunday. Another storm system will impact our region. Will there be thunderstorms or snow? Or, perhaps both? Definitely a wild card on this one. Let’s keep monitoring the latest data.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Watching Thursday and Friday for some rain chances.
Here are the expected rainfall totals for the Thursday/Friday system. This is the WPC map. Image is from weatherbell.com and you can click the image for a larger view
Now, heavier rain is possible on Saturday. Numbers are increasing for that system. Some areas could pick up more than 0.50″ on Saturday. This will need to be monitored.
The map below is ONLY for the Thursday system (ending on Friday morning)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Thursday and Friday. I am now monitoring Saturday for possible thunderstorms.
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No risk of severe weather through Friday.
I am monitoring Saturday for possible storms in the region. This will be determined by the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
