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Quick update on our winter storm.
Snow will develop over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois during the afternoon hours. Snow will be light, at first.
Expect snow to move into the above mentioned areas between 4 pm and 9 pm.
A period of freezing rain is also possible. This would glaze roadways.
Snow will increase in coverage and intensity as we move through the night. The peak of the storm for far southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will likely be between 3 am and 8 am on Wednesday morning.
Road temperatures are cold. Temperatures will not rise much more today. Thus, whatever falls will stick to the roadways. Roads will become slick and hazardous quickly. Especially true of untreated roadways. Use care if you must be out tonight.
Models have come into better agreement on a couple of things.
Most of the data is a bit colder. Thus, perhaps sleet will be fairly limited over most of our counties. The exception might be near the Missouri and Arkansas border and the Kentucky and Tennessee border. However, even there it appears this might end up mostly a snow event.
All available data is pointing to at least a chance for some bands of heavier snow totals. I am forecasting a widespread 2-3″ snow event. Then, there could be pockets of 3″-6″. It is tricky, at best, to forecast where that will occur. However, it appears most likely over far southeast Missouri into far southern Illinois and then straight across western Kentucky. Keep in mind, these bands might be a county or so wide. And, that means that snowfall totals could vary greatly over the area.
The end result will be the same. Hazardous road conditions later tonight into Wednesday.
Temperatures on Wednesday night will fall into the 20s. That means that whatever melts on Wednesday would likely refreeze on Wednesday evening and night. Thus, black ice would be possible.
I am watching another precipitation event for Thursday and Friday. We will need to monitor the timing of this event. Some models show copious amounts of precipitation on both days. However, I would caution everyone that models handle snowfall numbers poorly days in advance. And, it is possible the system will track further south. That would lower precipitation totals. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Some graphics.
Watches and warnings
Some high resolution maps from weatherbell.com
This is for 3 pm this afternoon.
This is the HRRR model. Gives you some idea of time table. But, not gospel, either. Just a general idea.
This is for 6 pm tonight. Blue is snow. Pink and purple would be sleet. Not sure how much sleet we experience.
This is for the 7 pm hour.
This is for the 9 pm hour
This is for the 10 pm hour. You get the idea.
Let me show you one models opinion on totals. Again, this is not going to be exact. I wanted to show you the band of heavier snow on some data.
Late week system?
Another system may impact our region on Thursday. Low confidence on the eventual track and strength of that system. Models range from no snow at all to heavy snow. Go figure! Like I always tell you, don’t trust model guidance more than 24 hours in advance of a system. And, even then it can be a mess.
Right now the model guidance is showing an area of low pressure moving across parts of Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. The 850 mb low (upper level low) will track through Tennessee. This is typically a favorable path for snow in our local counties. The models do show the low intensifying to a formidable system. But, I would caution against accepting the current model guidance as gospel. Still several days away.
A winter storm may impact our region on Thursday and Friday. But, a lot of questions remain on the details. And, the eventual track of the system and intensity is far from certain.
You will want to monitor the latest forecast updates via my text messaging service. Visit www.beaudodsonweather.com to sign up! Remember, this also supports the blog, the interactive city view radars, the other websites, and my time. I will send out updates as confidence grows as to how this winter weather event will impact our region.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
oming weather conditions.
