We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold. But, perhaps not as cold as Monday morning.
Temperatures: Lows from 10 to 16 above
Winds: Northwest winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold air.
Tuesday – Increasing clouds. Cold. A chance for snow towards evening over our northwest counties of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Better chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures: Highs will range 28 to 32 degrees
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming southeast during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% late afternoon/evening
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated towards evening over our northwestern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Maybe some snow towards evening over our northwestern counties? Stay tuned.
Tough forecast for our region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. All types of precipitation may occur. And, it will obviously vary across the region. If freezing rain occurs then it appears the amounts would not be nearly enough to cause issues with power lines or trees. The impact from this event, if any, will be slick roadways. Glaze on roadways.
Remember, forecasts are fluid. Weather is not static. Check back often for updated information.
Main concern will be impacts, not amounts. In other words, this does not look to be a large precipitation event. It should be a light event. But, roadways will be cold. Icy roads on Wednesday morning will be the main concern.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for snow. Snow may become mixed with sleet and freezing rain. Wintry mix could change to all rain over parts of our area. An all rain change over would be the southern counties of the Missouri Bootheel and perhaps along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Confidence is low that there will be a change to rain. The track of the system will be key to precipitation types.
Temperatures: Lows from 22-28 with rising temperatures overnight
Winds: East/southeast winds 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% chance
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Yes, some concerns for slick roads Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold air. Possibly some snow/sleet/freezing rain. Slick road conditions if snow does develop.
Wednesday – Cloudy. A chance for a wintry mix or rain early in the day. Precipitation tapering off during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs will range 30 to 35 degrees
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph becoming northwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% early and then diminishing to 30% after 12 pm.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Some wintry precipitation will be possible over at least portions of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some slick roads are possible Wednesday morning.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Slick roads possible where temperatures fail to rise above freezing.
Wednesday night – Decreasing clouds. Not as cold as earlier in the week.
Temperatures: Lows from 25-30
Winds: Northeast winds 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Depending on what happens on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, there could be some slick roads in the area. Monitor updates.
Another system may impact our region on Thursday and Friday. Monitor for frequent updates.
Thursday – Cloudy. A 40% chance for precipitation.
Temperatures: Highs will range 34-38 degrees
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (but subject to adjustments as we move forward)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitor updates as a new storm system may bring some precipitation to the area.
Join me on Facebook this evening at 7 pm. The Beau Dodson Weather page.
The school bus stop forecast still needs an advertiser!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold for Monday might
2. Winter weather event possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. High confidence.
3. Winter storm possible on Thursday into Thursday night. Low confidence.
The big story for the next 24-48 hours will be the cold temperatures and a developing winter weather event.
Temperatures on Tuesday morning will again dip into the lower teens over our local area. Some upper single digits once again possible, as well. The brrr factor will be in full force.
Temperatures will start to rise on Tuesday evening. Temperatures should rise most of Tuesday night as winds turn around to the south and pull warmer air northward. The biggest question is just how much temperatures will rise on Tuesday night. Will they rise above freezing over some of our local counties? Thus, changing the wintry mix to a cold rain. That is still a question mark.
I feel fairly confident that our northern counties will remain below freezing through most of this event. That would include areas from Farmington, Missouri to Perryville, Missouri into the Harrisburg, Illinois area. Then north of that line. The event should remain all or mostly frozen. As of right now, that seems correct. That would mean mostly a snow event. Perhaps grauple, at times. Grauple is little pellets of snow. Perhaps even some sleet.
Areas south of that line might have to deal with a wintry mix. That would mean snow changing to sleet and freezing rain. And then the question becomes rain. Will it warm up enough on Wednesday morning to change everything to rain (for parts of the area).
Main concern will be impacts, not amounts. In other words, this does not look to be a large precipitation event. It should be a light event. But, roadways will be cold. Icy roads on Wednesday morning will be the main concern.
Most of the data indicates this will be a fairly light event as far as totals. However, I don’t like to issue forecast totals until about 24 hours in advance. Yes, I will give you a general idea of the intensity of the system. But, specific numbers rarely verify more than 24 hours in advance.
All of the above will depend on the track of the surface low pressure and the 850 mb low (if there is one). This is a weak system, overall. Not a well defined area of low pressure. More like a broad area of low pressure. That complicates the forecast.
The trend over the last 24 hours has been for the low to track a bit further south. If that is the case then we will experience a greater chance of most of the precipitation remaining frozen. The further south the low tracks, the colder we are. Keep that in mind.
Let me show you a couple of model guidance maps.
This first one is the NAM model guidance from weatherbell.com Note where the broad area of low pressure is placed. Remember, I always tell you that if the low tracks to our south that places us on the cold side of the system. The issue with this system is that we are expecting a fairly strong push of warmer air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, a wintry mix is possible.
Once a snowflake falls through a warm layer and melts, it can not return to the snowflake state. It would become sleet or freezing rain.
Here is a graphic illustrator the process. Again, the deeper the layer of warm air the more likely the precipitation will remain in some frozen state.
On the right side of this graphic the entire atmosphere is below freezing. Thus, snow falls. Move to the right and the layer of warm air grows deeper and deeper. The far left represents the entire atmosphere above freezing, this rain would be the precipitation type.
This is for the 6 am hour on Wednesday morning. Blue is snow. Pink and orange would be sleet and freezing rain. Wintry mix.
Moving ahead to the 9 am hour. You can see the system is departing. Perhaps ending as rain?
Let me show you a geeky chart.
This is the sounding for Paducah on Wednesday morning. The higher up you go on this chart the higher up in the atmosphere you are. The bottom is the surface (where we live). With this chart you can look at the atmosphere thousands of feet aloft. What I am looking for would be temperatures aloft. Do temperatures rise above freezing aloft? If so, how deep is that warm layer.
Imagine the jet stream. Imagine it several thousand feet above the surface of the earth. Those red arrow lines represent the jet stream. See how the lines to the right are curved or bowed? That indicates the warm air aloft causing temperatures to rise. There is a sliver of the sounding above freezing. That means the snowflakes will melt in that warm layer of the atmosphere. Once they melt, they can not return to snowflake state. They melt and then can refreeze as temperatures below the warm layer are colder. If it refreezes then it becomes sleet. If the warm layer is deep enough you can even have freezing rain. Freezing rain occurs because the warm layer is deep enough that the water does not have time to freeze into an ice pellet. This typically happens when we have a shallow layer of cold air at the surface.
There are quite a few guidance packages that indicate we will have to deal with some wintry mix on Wednesday morning. But, confidence is rather low as to exactly where the snow line vs the wintry mix line will be placed. Monitor updates.
If temperatures warm enough on Wednesday morning we could see just plain old rain for a few hours. Perhaps as the system is ending.
Let’s look at the GFS model guidance. The above maps were the NAM guidance.
This first image is for 11 pm to 1 am on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The GFS spreads precipitation into the area a little faster than the NAM. Blue is snow. Pink and orange would be ice. Green would be rain.
Notice how far south the area of low pressure is. This is typically a decent track if you want snow in our area.
Moving ahead to 6 am on Wednesday morning. Lot of precipitation in our area. Quite a bit of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Maybe even rain for our southern counties. Again, the track of the area of low pressure is key to all of this.
Finally, this last map is for around 9 am to 11 am on Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be winding down.
Late week system?
Another system may impact our region on Thursday. Low confidence on the eventual track and strength of that system. Models range from no snow at all to heavy snow. Go figure! Like I always tell you, don’t trust model guidance more than 24 hours in advance of a system. And, even then it can be a mess.
Right now the model guidance is showing an area of low pressure moving across parts of Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. The 850 mb low (upper level low) will track through Tennessee. This is typically a favorable path for snow in our local counties. The models do show the low intensifying to a formidable system. But, I would caution against accepting the current model guidance as gospel. Ensemble forecasting indicates that the GFS could be deepening this system a little too much. Not saying it is wrong, but I am saying it is still several days away.
Model guidance typically will hone in on the correct solution a day or so in advance. Let’s keep watching it.
A winter storm may impact our region on Thursday. But, a lot of questions remain on the details. And, the eventual track of the system and intensity is far from certain.
You will want to monitor the latest forecast updates via my text messaging service. Visit www.beaudodsonweather.com to sign up! Remember, this also supports the blog, the interactive city view radars, the other websites, and my time. I will send out updates as confidence grows as to how this winter weather event will impact our region.
I will also post updates on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page.
The main concern will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A wintry mix will be possible over parts of the area. Latest data indicates some of this precipitation may end up being plain old rain. Where the freezing line will end up is still questionable.
Monitor updates if you have travel concerns on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Monday night – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday Night – A wintry mix is possible. Wintry mix could change to rain for some of our counties. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – A wintry mix and/or rain is possible on Wednesday.
Thursday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
Friday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
Focus of any changes will be on the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame. This system is coming into view. And, confidence in the forecast is increasing. Still a bit early to be confident on snow amounts. And/or the wintry mix.
Bitterly cold on Monday night. Temperatures will again dip into the teens. Possibly upper single digits.
A wintry mix is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. And, for some counties, this could even end up being just a plain old rain event. Still some time to get this forecast correct.
Monitoring a precipitation event for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wide range of precipitation types will be possible with this system. And, some data even indicates rain could fall over some of our counties.
Slick roadways will be possible on Wednesday morning over some of my forecast counties.
The wild card in this forecast will be precipitation type and totals for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wide range of types will be possible. Ranging from plain rain to a wintry mix.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are likely on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There could even be a period of rain over our southern and southwestern counties. This will need to be monitored.
Melted precipitation totals should be in the 0.10″-0.30″ range. Snowfall totals could be 1-3″ with potentially more. Monitor updates.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
