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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday night – Some clouds early and then clearing. Snow showers possible early. Bitterly cold wind chills and air temperatures.
Temperatures: Lows from 4 degrees to 12 degrees. Temperatures will vary quite a bit over the region. Cold favored areas in rural areas will be the coldest. Coldest air will be over our northern counties. Lower teens are more likely along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph early. Winds diminishing to 5-10 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance early in the evening.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. Can’t rule out a snow shower. Dusting at most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Wind chills will be below zero. Have alternative plans.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold air. Winds chills below zero.
Monday – Mostly sunny and quite cold. A brrrrr day!
Temperatures: Highs will range from 16 to 24 degrees. Wind chills below zero during the morning hours and in the single digits and teens throughout the day.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Wind chills will be below zero on Monday morning.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Wind chills below zero during the morning hours. Don’t forget our outdoor friends.
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold. But, perhaps not as cold as Monday morning.
Temperatures: Lows from 10 to 16 above
Winds: Northwest winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold air.
Tuesday – Becoming cloudy. A chance for snow towards evening over our northwest counties of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Better chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures: Highs will range 28 to 32 degrees
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming southeast during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% late afternoon/evening
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated towards evening over our northwestern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Maybe some snow towards evening over our northwestern counties? Stay tuned.
Tough forecast for our region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. All types of precipitation may occur. And, it will obviously vary across the region. If freezing rain occurs then it appears the amounts would not be nearly enough to cause issues with power lines or trees. The impact from this event, if any, will be slick roadways. Glaze on roadways.
Remember, forecasts are fluid. Weather is not static. Check back often for updated information.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for snow. Snow may become mixed with sleet and freezing rain. Wintry mix could change to all rain over parts of our area. The track of the system will be key to precipitation types. Precipitation could turn to all rain for some of our counties. Again, still some time to adjust this forecast.
Temperatures: Lows from 22-28 with rising temperatures overnight
Winds: East/southeast winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% chance
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Perhaps
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold air. Possibly some snow/sleet/freezing rain. Slick road conditions if snow does develop.
Wednesday – Cloudy. A chance for a wintry mix or rain early in the day. Precipitation tapering off during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs will range 32 to 36 degrees
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph becoming southwest/west late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% early and then diminishing to 30% after 12 pm.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Some wintry precipitation will be possible over at least portions of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Slick roads possible where temperatures fail to rise above freezing.
Wednesday night – Decreasing clouds. Not as cold as earlier in the week.
Temperatures: Lows from 25-30
Winds: Northeast winds 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Depending on what happens on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, there could be some slick roads in the area. Monitor updates.
Another system may impact our region on Thursday and Friday. Monitor for frequent updates.
Thursday – Cloudy. A 30% chance for precipitation.
Temperatures: Highs will range 36-42 degrees
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to adjustments as we move forward)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitor updates as a new storm system may bring some precipitation to the area.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Bitterly cold air for Sunday night into Tuesday morning.
2. A precipitation event for Tuesday night into Wednesday. But, what type?
3. Will another system impact our region on Thursday/Friday.
The main weather story for the next 24-36 hours will be the bitterly cold air temperatures. I am forecasting widespread single digits to lower teens by Monday morning over the region. This will combine with winds to make for below zero wind chill values. Use care if you must be out and about, as always.
Monday morning low temperature map (give or take)
Monday high temperature map. Some locations may be colder than this.
Tuesday morning low temperatures. Not quite as cold.
High temperatures on Tuesday should rise into the 20s and lower 30s.
Also, don’t forget about our furry outdoor friends. Their water bowls will be frozen solid.
We certainly don’t want this to happen 🙂
Temperatures on Monday night/Tuesday morning will also be bitterly cold. Expect more single digits to lower teens in the area. Some spots will be middle teens on Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Winter weather event developing?
The next big weather story is the potential for precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Now, I have already seen all the app forecasts. People have been sending them to me. Some app’s are showing 3-6″ of snow for the region. Of course, these apps are all computer generated forecasts. They change on a whim. They can change four or five times a day.
I do not like to give out snowfall forecasts more than 24 hours in advance. And, that is for a reason. Rarely to snow forecasts verify more than 24 hours in advance. Yes, sometimes they do. But, more often than not, you will be chasing a forecast if you start giving out numbers 2 or 3 days in advance (or longer). I have witnessed snow forecasts for 4-8″ end up being a dusting or no snow at all. Ramp up and not down. That is my general forecast philosophy.
This is not a straight forward slam dunk winter weather event. There remain many questions as to precipitation types and amounts.
Let’s look at the pro’s and con’s of whether it will snow or not. I will use pro to represent those who want snow
Pro’s
1. Time of day. The system arrives at night. That would favor colder air and more frozen.
2. Cold temperatures blanket the region in advance of the system. Cold air is already in place.
3. The system is moving in from the northwest (at least part of it). That generally favors the cold air staying in place.
4. The ground is already cold. Snow, if it were to fall, would have no problem sticking. The flip side of that is freezing rain or sleet would also have no problem sticking to the roads. Slick road conditions possible.
Con’s
1. Strong low level jet. Temperatures should warm through the night on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winds aloft will be from a southerly direction and not a northerly direction. That equals warmer air moving in aloft and eventually at the surface.
2. Some models develop a closed area of low pressure and track it near our region. Thus, if we were on the south end of the track, it would likely just be a rain event. At least for some counties. Or, at most, it would a wintry mix changing to rain.
3. Warm air aloft is a certain. That means that it could be difficult for this to be an all snow event.
4. Dry air aloft. This will eat into precipitation totals. Precipitation will evaporate as it falls. It will take awhile to moisture up the atmospheric column enough to allow precipitation to reach the ground. Have you ever witnessed virga? It looks like it is raining out of the clouds, but nothing is hitting the ground? This is precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground. Sometimes half of a storm system can be eaten (as one might say) by the dry air.
Example of virga (just pretend this is snow, same difference)
Bottom line:
This system is still in the 2-3 day range. It is still too early to say what counties will end up on the receiving end of wintry precipitation vs perhaps just a cold rain. Or, perhaps all of the above. Frozen precipitation turning to rain.
At this time, I believe the precipitation will start out as snow and a wintry mix over at least parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. It appears precipitation would begin on Tuesday night.
Beyond that, I am not sure how this plays out.
Check out the GFS model. It now shows the area of low pressure moving over our region. This would mean rain for some of us. This is one models opinion.
Remember, yesterday the GFS showed basically all snow for our region. This is for Tuesday night around 11 pm to 12 am. The low is over southwest Missouri. Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Orange and pink would be sleet and freezing rain.
Moving ahead to Wednesday morning around 6 am. Snow to our north and rain for most of our area. If the GFS is right then we will have a wintry mix in the region. And, some just plain old rain.
The GEM/Canadian model shows a lot of snow for our area. Different models and different opinions.
The NAM model (below) shows a wintry mix for the region. This map is for Wednesday morning at 6 am. Blue and pink are snow and sleet/freezing rain.
I do believe the warm air will have a decent shot at pushing in at mid levels of the atmosphere. That would mean snow would change to sleet and/or freezing rain before ending. And, perhaps even plain old rain.
You will want to monitor the latest forecast updates via my text messaging service. Visit www.beaudodsonweather.com to sign up! Remember, this also supports the blog, the interactive city view radars, the other websites, and my time. I will send out updates as confidence grows as to how this winter weather event will impact our region.
I will also post updates on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page.
Another system later in the week?
Another storm system may bring precipitation to the region on Thursday and Friday. This is a southern storm. That means the low is forecast to track to our south. There remain a lot of questions as to the intensity of this system and the track. Both will have major impacts as to what, if anything, happens in our local area. Monitor updates on this event, as well.
The main concern will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A wintry mix will be possible over parts of the area. Latest data indicates some of this precipitation may end up being plain old rain. Where the freezing line will end up is still questionable.
Monitor updates if you have travel concerns on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Monday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Monday night – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday Night – A wintry mix is possible. Wintry mix could change to rain for some of our counties. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – A wintry mix and/or rain is possible on Wednesday.
Thursday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
Friday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
I continue to adjust wording on the precipitation event on Tuesday night and Wednesday. That is the main forecast struggle, at this time.
Bitterly cold air into Tuesday. Single digits and lower teens are likely by Monday morning.
A wintry mix is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. And, for some counties, this could even end up being just a plain old rain event. Still some time to get this forecast correct.
The biggest concern will be the cold temperatures. You might need to change the water bowls more often. Also, don’t forget about our outdoor friends during this cold snap. Bitterly cold air.
Monitoring a precipitation event for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wide range of precipitation types will be possible with this system. And, some data even indicates rain could fall over some of our counties.
The wild card in this forecast will be precipitation type and totals for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wide range of types will be possible. Ranging from plain rain to a wintry mix.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A precipitation event will push into our region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. At this time it is still too early to determine whether this will be a frozen event or liquid event. And, perhaps both.
Either way, it does appear this should be a fairly light event. Although, I caution, this is still 48-72 hours our. And, as we all know, much can change in the forecast with these winter weather events.
Another system could bring precipitation to our region on Thursday and Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Monday through Thursday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
