Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 17, 2016: Plenty to monitor in the weather department

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

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Saturday night – Some clouds.  Colder.  Small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures:  Lows from 18 to 24 degrees
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds.  Colder.  Small chance for afternoon/evening  snow showers.  Gusty winds during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 28 to 34 degrees with falling temperatures during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph before noon and 8-16 mph with gusts above 20 mph after the noon hour.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No, but snow showers are possible.  A dusting at most.

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be quite cold.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expectedBitterly cold air will produce wind chills below zero.  Snow showers are possible.  Not expecting travel issues from the snow showers.

 

Sunday night – Some clouds early and then clearing.  Snow showers possible. Bitterly cold wind chills and air temperatures.
Temperatures:  Lows from 4 degrees to 12 degrees.  Temperatures will vary quite a bit over the region.  Cold favored areas in rural areas will be the coldest.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph early.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 30% chance early in the evening.
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Unlikely.  Can’t rule out a snow shower. Dusting at most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Wind chills will be below zero.  Have alternative plans.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Bitterly cold air. Winds chills below zero.

 

Monday – Mostly sunny and quite cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 16 to 24 degrees.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Wind chills will be below zero on Monday morning.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold.

 

Monday night – Partly cloudy and cold.
Temperatures:  Lows from 12 to 16 above
Winds:  Northwest winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold air.

 

Tuesday – Cloudy.  A chance for snow towards evening.  Perhaps better chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 28 to 32 degrees
Winds
Northeast/east winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% late afternoon
Coverage of precipitation? 
Unknown

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Monitor updates.

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold.  Maybe some snow towards evening?  Stay tuned.

 

Tuesday night – Cloudy.  A chance for snow or snow/rain mix.  Freezing drizzle possible.
Temperatures:  Lows from 22-28 with rising temperatures overnight
Winds:  East/southeast winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 60% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Perhaps
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a back up plan.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold air.  Possible some snow.  Slick road conditions if snow does develop.

 

Wednesday – Cloudy.  A chance for snow and/or snow/rain.  Freezing drizzle possible.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 28 to 34 degrees
Winds
South winds at 6-12 mph becoming southwest late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Scattered to perhaps widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Monitor updates.

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold.  Maybe some snow?  Stay tuned.

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Cold weekend
2.  Bitterly cold air Sunday night
3.  Several systems to monitor this coming week.
4.  What about the Tuesday night/Wednesday snow event?

Well, it is January.  January usually delivers a couple of cold shots.  And, this January has been no different.  Unlike our counterpart December, this month has been more normal than abnormal.

A blast of true arctic air will sweep over our area on Sunday into Monday.   Moving from north to south.  Expect widespread low temperatures in the single digits to lower teens by Monday morning.  Thankfully, many kids will be out of school on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.  Thus, the impact will be lessened somewhat.

Wind chills will dip below zero on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  Use care, as always.

I can’t rule out some light snow flurries or a snow shower as the front moves through our region on Sunday.  A dusting is possible in a few spots.  But, generally this is not expected to be an accumulating snow event.

The next weather system, that I will be monitoring, will move in from the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some timing differences in the data.  Either way, snow is likely to develop in our region at some point during that 24-36 hour time frame.  I can’t rule out accumulating snow, but it is still several days away and much can change.  Let’s keep tracking its progress.

Some indication temperatures might rise on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Thus, a snow/rain mix would be possible.

Cold air will stick around for much of this week.  Especially true if snow does fall.

Another system may impact the area towards Friday or Saturday.  Long way off for that one.  Some indications it would produce rain. But, confidence is low.

Quite a bit to monitor.  Keep checking the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and this blog for updates.  Also, don’t forget to subscribe to the texting service.  When I post updates concerning winter storms I will text you the information and links for the latest information.

Check out this low temperature map for Monday morning.  Very cold air.  Fairly unusual to have these types of temperatures without snow cover.

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Let’s take a look at some more maps

Possible low temperatures for Monday morning.  These temperatures might vary.  Cold air is typically shallow and tends to “ooze” around a bit.  Lows can actually vary over a small distance.  But, you get the general idea.

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The high temperature map for Sunday

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The low temperature map for Sunday night/Monday morning

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The high temperature map for Monday

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The low temperature map for Monday night/Tuesday morning

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Here are the Sunday evening wind chills.

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This map shows you Monday morning wind chill values.  Brrr

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Let’s take a look at our Tuesday night/Wednesday snow event.  Confidence is medium on this event producing an accumulating snow in our region.

This first map, from weatherbell.com, shows you the weather map for 6 pm on Tuesday.  You can see the blue (snow) moving southeast through Missouri.

Keep in mind, this is ONE model of many.  Does not mean this is how the system will unfold.  This is still three days out.  Much can change.

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Moving ahead to 11 pm to 1 am on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  According to the GFS we will have snow falling in the region.

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Moving ahead to Wednesday morning at 6 am.  Snow continues, but is moving out of the area.

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Moving ahead to the lunch hour on Wednesday.  Snow is ending.

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If most of the snow falls on Tuesday night then there would be travel issues on Wednesday morning.  If the snow were to arrive on Wednesday then we would have to monitor temperatures at the surface.  With south and southeast winds, temperatures would make an attempt to rise into the 30s.  Again, timing is important as far as accumulating snow.

Again, this is one models opinion on the event.  There are many other models that show something a bit different.

Confidence is medium on this event delivering an accumulating snow to the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Monitor updates.

Another system may move into the area on Thursday and Friday.  Too soon to know if this would produce rain or frozen precipitation.

The odds favor the late week system to remain well to our south.  If phasing does not occur.
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Some flurries or snow showers possible on Sunday.  I am watching Tuesday night and Wednesday for snow chances.

 

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Saturday night – Small chance for flurries or a snow shower.
Sunday – Flurries or a snow shower possible along a cold front moving through the area.
Monday – No significant snow or ice anticipated during the morning or afternoon hours.
Monday night – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape.
Tuesday Night – Snow is possible.
Wednesday – Snow is possible.

 

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Adjusted wind and temperatures.

 

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Bitterly cold air on Sunday night is the concern.  Single digits are a good bet by Monday morning.

Snow is possible Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

 

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The biggest concern will be the cold temperatures.  You might need to change the water bowls more often.  Also, don’t forget about our outdoor friends on Sunday and Sunday night/Monday.  Bitterly cold air.

Monitoring a snow event for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Medium confidence on an accumulating snow event.  Still a bit early to bank.

 

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The wild card for the upcoming week will be snow chances.  We have a couple of disturbances to monitor.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No rain through Monday night.

Snow is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Melted totals could be in the 0.10″-0.20″ range.

Another, potentially stronger system, is possible on Thursday into Friday.  Monitor updates.

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Sunday through Thursday.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com



WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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