Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Friday night – Some clouds.  Colder.
Temperatures:  Lows from 26 to 34 degrees.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Saturday – Quite a few clouds.  Colder.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 36 to 42 degrees.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Saturday night – Some clouds.  Colder.  Small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures:  Lows from 18 to 24 degrees
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds.  Colder.  Small chance for afternoon/evening  snow showers.  Gusty winds during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 28 to 34 degrees
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph before noon and 8-16 mph with gusts above 20 mph after the noon hour.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Sunday night – Some clouds early and then clearing.  Snow showers possible.
Temperatures:  Lows from 8 to 14 degrees.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Unlikely.  Can’t rule out a snow shower.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Bitterly cold air.

Monday – Mostly sunny and quite cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 16 to 24 degrees.
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold. Morning wind chills below zero.

Monday night – Some increase in clouds possible.
Temperatures:  Lows from 12 to 16 above
Winds:  Northwest winds 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold air.

Tuesday – Cloudy.  A chance for snow.  Perhaps better chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 28 to 32 degrees
Winds:  East winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Unknown
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low/medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold.  Maybe some snow?  Stay tuned.

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Cold weekend
2.  Bitterly cold air Sunday night
3.  Several weak systems to monitor for light snow shower chances.
4.  What about the Tuesday snowstorm in the charts?

The big weather story over the coming days will be the cold temperatures.  By Monday morning we will dip into the single digits and lower teens for temperatures.  Bitterly cold air.  Some of you experienced single digits earlier this week.  But, all in all, this should be one of the colder shots of air so far this winter.

We will have a mix of sun and clouds over the coming days.  Quite a few clouds expected.  And, I can’t rule out a snow shower.  Right now the better chances, if you want to call it that, would be centered along the cold front on Sunday and then perhaps again on Tuesday or Wednesday.  I will keep an eye on the Tuesday/Wednesday system.  It appears to at least stand somewhat of a chance to produce some snow.  As a matter of fact, some charts show quite a bit of snow with the Tuesday system.

It is way too soon to bank on any model solutions for Tuesday.  I will be watching and updating throughout the weekend.  Keep checking back.

Look at this Monday morning temperature map.  Those are -18 readings in North and South Dakota.  Minnesota, as well.  Let’s just be happy we are not in that air mass.  We won’t escape, however, without some bitterly cold numbers.  Some locations in our region could dip down into the 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 degree range.  Above zero, of course.  That is amazing without snow cover.  Typically we see those kind of numbers when we have a deep snow pack covering the region.

Here is the jet stream for Monday morning.  That is quite the dip.  Straight down from Canada.  Thus, our cold readings.  Arctic air.

I wanted to show you this system off the West Coast of the United States.  Impressive to see an area of low pressure wound up so tightly.  You can see the swirl of clouds south of Alaska.  Long trailing cold front extending south and east from the low.

No major or significant snow events over the next three days.  Small chance for snow showers over the weekend.

Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday night – Small chance for flurries or a snow shower.
Sunday – Small chance for flurries or a snow shower.
Monday – No significant snow or ice anticipated during the morning or afternoon hours.
Monday night – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape.
Tuesday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape.

Adjusted wind and temperatures.

Bitterly cold air on Sunday night is the concern.  We may actually experience some single digits on Sunday night and Monday morning.  Don’t forget our furry outdoor friends.

The biggest concern will be the cold temperatures.  You might need to change the water bowls more often.  Also, don’t forget about our outdoor friends on Sunday and Sunday night/Monday.  Bitterly cold air.

The wild card over the weekend into early next week will be snow showers.  A chance for a few from time to time.  Low confidence.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No rain expected over the weekend.  Weak systems moving through the strong jet stream flow over the next few days could produce some flurries or light snow showers.  I will keep an eye on it.

I am watching a stronger system around Tuesday.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Saturday through Tuesday.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.